Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 29, 2013

by Dick Powell

This Saturday might be one of the best days of racing we will see all year.

From early in the morning to late in the afternoon, we are going to get quality

racing from around the world with huge implications. Very rarely do we get

quality with quantity but that is what March 30 will give us.

The day will begin early on Saturday morning from Meydan Racecourse where the

Group 1 Dubai World Cup will be held. Eight races worth $27 million have

attracted 41 Group/Grade 1 stakes winners from around the world. This is the

real World Thoroughbred Championships, not the Breeders' Cup.

This year's renewal is marked by an increased American presence which begins

in earnest in the 7TH race, the Group 1, $5 million Dubai Duty Free going 1 1/8

miles on the turf. Breeders Cup Turf champion Little Mike will try to double his

$3 million bankroll with a win here.

Little Mike and stablemate Dullahan shipped to Dubai at the beginning of

March to get a race under their belt and get acclimated as much as possible.

Little Mike ran on the Tapeta in the third round of the Group 1 Maktoum

Challenge and he ran extremely well before weakening in the stretch. He should

get a lot of conditioning out of that race and be fit and ready for this.

On paper, it looks like Little Mike will have a big pace edge here over these

so an easy lead is there for the taking if Gary Stevens wants to take advantage

of it.

Little Mike's competition should come from Ocean Park, who won the

prestigious Group 1 Cox Plate last October in Australia and comes in here off a

Group 1 stakes win in New Zealand and The Apache, who was a brilliant winner in

the Group 2 Al Rashidiya at the start of the Carnival and then was a close

second next out in a Group 1 here going this distance. The Mike de Kock horses

have all improved with racing and this one might still have some improvement

left in him.

Sajjhaa has won all three starts this year at the Carnival including a win in

the Group 1 Jebel Hatta against The Apache. She drew well and should be able to

race in midpack before unleashing her late kick. Igugu was the talking horse for

the entire meet when it began but things have not gone her way. Whether it was

the brutal quarantine procedure she had to go through before coming here or she

just can't reproduce her South African form, she has only been a rumor of her

past self. She's not impossible on Saturday and if you do use her make sure you

get the right price.

I like Little Mike to use his pace advantage and wire the Dubai Duty Free

with The Apache and Igugu filling out the rest of the placings.

The second to last race on the card will be the Group 1, $5 million Sheema

Classic going 1 1/2 miles and to me, the Japanese super mare Gentildonna lays

over the field. She's won both times going this distance including a nose

victory over the great Orfevre who should have won last year's Group 1 Arc de

Triomphe.

Since showing up, Gentildonna has trained brilliantly and just looks too

tough for this group. I'll use her in straight exactas over Shareta, Sharestan

and Await the Dawn.

Run later than ever at 2:05 p.m. (EDT), the Group 1, $10 million Dubai World

Cup has a stellar field of 13 going to the post. The late start to the race

gives the Tapeta main track more time to cool off from the hot sun earlier in

the day. The history of the World Cup run at Meydan is that horses that are up

near the lead do very well and horses that are way back never seem to get going

in time.

That said, I don't see Dullahan doing much even though this is his favorite

distance. I don't know how much he got out of his prep race when he broke poorly

and rushed up into contention while stuck down on the inside. Now, he draws post

3 and figures to get shuffled back into traffic. He has a cagey rider in Stevens

to extricate himself but I think it will be too much to ask.

Animal Kingdom drew post 12 and combined with his running style, he's going

to be up against it despite him looking like his old self in the morning. He

trains on Tapeta at the Fair Hill Training Center so the surface and distance

should be perfect for him. I liked Joel Rosario's ride in his prep race since he

should get something out of the race but wish he could have drawn in the middle.

Royal Delta drew well in post 8 and she has changed her running style to a

pace presser. If she can get away from the gate cleanly, she should be able to

race up near the lead and gallop along. Most of these races going two turns on

the Tapeta have very slow paces and Royal Delta has the ability to make the lead

and then drop her head and gallop along. I give her the edge here but she has to

break well.

The favorite is Godolphin's Hunter's Light, who has done nothing wrong here

in two starts. He'll race in the first half of the field and bide his time until

the right moment. Nothing not to like about him and he represents the best

chance for the home team to win the world's richest race again.

Of the outsiders, Planteur represents good value. He was third in this race

last year and comes in here with a winning prep race on a synthetic track in

Great Britain going this distance. He draws well and has a great money rider in

Ryan Moore aboard.

I'll go with Royal Delta to win and then use the others in exactas and

trifectas to try to inject some prices into the mix.

Once the World Cup is over, the action shifts to America where Gulfstream

Park and Fair Grounds will be hosting $1 million Kentucky Derby prep races. The

first one will be the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream. The three main

contenders have all drawn well, and I give the edge to juvenile champion

Shanghai Bobby who should get a dream trip from the rail. Kent Desormeaux will

probably have to use Merit Man from post 8, but I don't see much speed other

than these two.

Rosie Napravnik should be able to either go to the front or concede the lead

to Merit Man but either way she'll be forwardly placed while saving ground.

Itsmyluckyday has been sensational lately and is a serious horse that never

seems to get bet. He loves Gulfstream Park and should sit a stalking trip.

Shug McGaughey sends out Orb off a sharp win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth

and will be a stretch factor again. I'm still not sold on him and not even sure

that he will go on to Kentucky. He's only had three half-mile breezes in March

whereas Shanghai Bobby has had four, five-furlong breezes this month.

If Orb wins, he won't pay much so I am negative against him in here. Not much

value with Shanghai Bobby but if I can get 3-1, I'll go with a win bet and some

cold exactas on top of Itsmyluckyday and Orb.

Down at the Fair Grounds, a full field of 14 is entered for the Grade 2

Louisiana Derby. I'll be rooting for Revolutionary since I touted him last year

off his career debut. He was brilliant last out in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes

and will have to use his broken-field running skills again since he will have 13

rivals to contend with. Al Stall Jr.'s Departing looks especially dangerous in

here.