Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 12, 2013

by Dick Powell

So, last week I promised to conduct the definitive study of

turf sprints at Saratoga. I have gone back and researched the past three years

--

140 races -- and while some of the results are what I expected, some were quite

surprising.

For all the bettors who bemoan the presence of turf sprints

at Saratoga because the results seem chaotic, consider that 49 favorites won out

of 140 races resulting in a healthy 35 percent batting average for the chalk. That

said, the average win price was $14.38, which is way above average for the

favorite's win percentage. The mode winning price was $8.90.

There were few surprises in the trainers' category. Linda

Rice has the most wins in the past three years -- 16 -- and yet only four of them

were favored. This is pretty surprising as she clearly dominates these races but

the betting public is not using her as much as you would think.

Rice had 10 winners in 2010, only one in 2011 and bounced

back last year with five winners. In 2010 and 2011 she used a variety of riders,

but in 2012 all five of her winners were ridden by Cornelio Velasquez.

Todd Pletcher had nine winners with six of them ridden by

Johnny Velazquez and three by Javier Castellano. Chad Brown had eight with three

of them ridden by Castellano and three by Ramon Dominguez.

Leading Saratoga turf sprint trainers

With the jockeys, it was no surprise that Dominguez

was the leader with 21 turf sprint wins. As usual, he won for 12 different

trainers so it's going to be hard to predict where the business will go now that

Dominguez is retired. Castellano had 18 turf sprint wins for 11 different

trainers while Velazquez had 14, with six coming from Pletcher.

Velazquez surprised me with his 14 wins since I don't think

of him as a turf sprint rider, but six of the 14 wins came aboard favorites. If

you bet me who has more turf sprint wins at Saratoga the past three years,

Johnny Velazquez or Cornelio Velasquez, I would have bet Cornelio and I would

have lost. Even with the Rice business, he only had 10 turf sprint wins.

Leading Saratoga turf sprint jockeys

Pedigrees, or more specifically, sire lines, was another

big surprise. With Rice being the clear leader among the trainers, you

would think that City Zip would be one of the leading sires of

turf sprinters, but he only has one winner in the past three years. Freud has four winners, three of them trained by Rice.

The leading sire of turf sprint winners at Saratoga the

past three years is Speightstown, which should come as no surprise

considering how fast he was and that his sire, Gone West, is a strong turf

influence.

The real surprise here is that the second-leading sire at

Saratoga the past three years is Grand Reward with five winners.

This is due to the fact that one of his progeny, Isn'tlovejustgrand, won three times and

another, One Note Samba, won twice.

The rest of the winning sires are spread out, with Stormy Atlantic having four and a bunch having three winners.

Leading Saratoga turf sprint sires

Post positions in turf sprints at Saratoga are a critical

factor in handicapping. For years, we have seen a pronounced negative bias

against the rail but that began to change some last year. For the 140 turf

sprints run the past three years at Saratoga, the average field size was 9.02

and the average winning post position was 5.18, which means that there is a tilt

toward the outside where the winners are breaking from.

Post position 1 has the least amount of winners for the

first eight post positions with 10. In 2010, there were only two winners who

broke from the rail that won, in 2011 there was only one, but in 2012 there were

seven winners breaking from the rail. Overall, the rail is not the place to be

and it makes some sense the way these races are run.

If you draw the rail, you either have to gun to the front

to maintain your inside position against the outside speed flow, or drop back and

try to find a seam to run through in the stretch. The horse that makes the lead

from the inside is under constant pressure, so even at the short distance of 5

1/2

furlongs he never gets a chance to relax and many of them tire in the stretch.

The horses that come from behind on the inside face traffic while traveling at

a high speed.

The post position with the most turf sprint wins the past

three years is 5 with 19 winners. Post positions 2 and 4 produced 18

winners.

Leading Saratoga turf sprint post positions

The average winning time for the 140 turf sprints run at

Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs was a very fast 1:02.73. Half the races were

run faster than 1:02.71 and half were run slower than 1:02.71.

Sub :45 first half-miles are the rule, not the exception, so this gives

you a better understanding in analyzing final times and pace scenarios.

The fastest 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint run at Saratoga was

Fiddlers Patriot, who stopped the teletimer in 1:00.59 on August

30, 2010, despite breaking from post 10. The slowest was Goldzar, who

caught a soft turf course in the Ecclesiastic Stakes on September 5, 2011, when

he took 1:07.28.

Another thing I looked at was the placement of the

temporary rail. You would think that the farther out the temporary rail is

placed, the slower the race will be due to the extra ground covered around the

turn, but the effect of the temporary rail placement on the winning times is

negligible.

Average winning times for the most used temporary rail

placements

(Mellon turf course is firm)

Course condition is a much bigger factor on final winning

times. In 115 races where the course was listed as "Firm," the average winning

time was 1:02.53. In 25 races on courses listed as anything but "Firm," the

average winning time was 1:03.60.

So what does it all mean? You can embrace these races like

any others on the card. Form holds up but there is still good value to bet into.

I will still avoid post 1 unless it is a horse with a proven, extreme running

style.

With Dominguez retired, I think that Rosario and Lezcano will

pick up the slack. Storm Cat sire lines do well in them, and Rice is always

worth following as turf sprints have become her specialty.

We are one week away

from Opening Day so let the games begin!