Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 4, 2013

by Dick Powell

Lots of action last weekend with lots of things to analyze. In no apparent

order:

Loved Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon) for the Jockey Club Gold Cup

(G1) and things looked good when he came into the paddock ready to run.

Unfortunately, he seemed too keyed up as he kicked the wall in his saddling

stall four times. When they walked him out, he was up on his toes and proceeded

to get hotter and hotter on the way to the gate.

Now, he displayed similar characteristics at Gulfstream Park before the

Florida Derby (G1) but overcame them to win. On Saturday, by the time he got to

the gate, he was drenched in sweat on a comfortable day and I knew my pick was

in big trouble.

At the start, Cross Traffic (Unbridled's Song) suddenly stumbled in his third

stride out of the gate when it looked like the ground broke out from under him

and he had all four feet go in different directions. With the starting gate on

the outside of the Belmont main track midway around the turn, that part of the

track can often be groomed less than the inside and the horse is also starting

the race outside the crown of the track.

The expected speed horse of the race was now dead last leaving Alpha

(Bernardini) on the lead which has been a good place to be lately on the Belmont

main track. Deep closer Ron the Greek (Full Mandate) was much closer to the pace

than normal, never off the rail the entire way, burst through on the inside and

opened up to win by nearly seven lengths in the fast time of 1:59.70 at odds of

21-1.

The only sense I could make out of it was that Ron the Greek is one of those

old timers that likes to hear his ankles rattle on hard tracks. His best wins

have come in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), the Stephen Foster (G1) and the

Sunshine Millions; all of which came on similar hard, dirt tracks.

You think that a deep closer would benefit from a tiring track but in Ron the

Greek's case, it might be just the opposite.

Did Royal Delta (Empire Maker) lose the Beldame or did Princess of Sylmar

(Majestic Warrior) win it? With a quarter mile to go, Mike Smith looked like had

a handful of horse before hitting the stretch. Javier Castellano wisely kept

Princess of Sylmar down on the inside as long as possible and when he tipped to

the outside, it still looked like Royal Delta was still in cruise mode.

The shocking thing about the race was not so much Princess of Sylmar's win

but Royal Delta hardly fighting back when she was challenged in the stretch.

Yes, Princess of Sylmar is a serious filly. But when Royal Delta shows up for

the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), will she be back on Lasix? I'm not saying not

using Lasix was what got her beat but we'll see if she goes back on it.

Graydar (Unbridled's Song) was a sharp winner of the Kelso Handicap (G2)

going gate to wire to hold on by three parts of a length. He is very fast and

dangerous but he did have the perfect setup on Saturday being fast and down on

the inside.

The Belmont inside speed bias was never more evident that in the Vosburgh

(G1) when California shipper Private Zone (Macho Uno) made the lead, gave it up

briefly to Justin Phillip (First Samurai) in the deep stretch, then came back on

again down on the rail to win by a neck. Even with the Breeders' Cup on the West

Coast again this year, it was impressive that he could ship East and still run

his best.

The Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (G1) will be a hard race to analyze down

the road since there was a dawdling pace -- 25.68, 51.46 and 1:16.02 -- and a

big rush home. The Alan Goldberg-trained entry wound up one-two with Laughing

(Dansili) going gate to wire. No way she gets that kind of trip in the Breeders'

Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1).

In the Joe Hirsch Invitational Stakes (G1), not sure how Joe's Blazing Aaron

(Graeme Hall) was invited based on his record but the rabbit for the other two

parts of the Ramsay entry did his job for about a mile. Little Mike (Spanish

Steps) sat off the pace and took over way too early.

Mike Smith did a masterful job in the final quarter mile but at the wire it

looked like Big Blue Kitten (Kitten's Joy) might have nailed Little Mike coming

up the hedge with his entrymate Real Solution (Kitten's Joy) on the outside.

Somehow, Little Mike got his head down and won by a nose for a much-needed

victory for the Dale Romans' stable. With his tactical speed and win over the

course last year in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), he should be tough again as it

looks like he's peaking at the right time.

One of the highlights of the day was Misconnect's (Unbridled's Song) maiden

win in race two. At Saratoga on a very sloppy track, he surged to the lead in

the deep stretch after battling on the front end only to be passed by the

highly-regarded Honor Code (A.P. Indy). On Saturday, he chased a runaway leader,

Endowment Manager (Master Command) that was in full command on a track that

favored inside speed.

Sent off at 4-5 odds, it looked like the upset was on as Endowment Manager

was not backing up. Javier Castellano tipped Misconnect to the outside but the

response was not immediate. He began to inch up on the leader who still looked

unbeatable but Misconnect kept on fighting and managed to get by him by a

length, running his last furlong in 12.46 seconds and a final time for the seven

furlongs in 1:22.62.

It was eerily similar to last year's career debut win by Violence (Medaglia

d'Oro) when he ran down a very good Titletown Five (Tiznow) at Saratoga and we

know how good Violence turned out to be.

Out at Santa Anita, there were five Grade 1 stakes races run on Saturday.

BEHOLDER (Henny Hughes) looks like she has found another dimension by relaxing

better than ever before and during her race. Gary Stevens has done a masterful

job in getting her to switch off and on Saturday she finished better than she

ever has in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1).

Winner of two Grade 1 stakes earlier this year, she was a terrific second in

the Kentucky Oaks (G1) where she part of a very fast pace which softened her up

just enough to let Princess of Sylmar to go by her in the final yards. Now, she

adds another Grade 1 and goes to the Breeders' Cup loaded for bear with five

wins in six starts over the Santa Anita dirt surface.

I loved Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

and turning for home, he looked like he was in perfect position. Unfortunately,

he could not get by Fort Larned (E Dubai) and finished second. Now, he comes

back for the Classic with a Grade 1 win over the track when he dominated the

Awesome Again and considering how he never got anywhere to the rail, it was a

big effort. Unless he draws post 1 against a big field, he could be the one this

year.