Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 7, 2014

by Dick Powell

I always look forward to the Santa Anita Handicap but this year's renewal has

me on the edge of my seat with my finger poised on the keyboard to send it in on

Game On Dude (Awesome Again).

The race has come up especially strong this year with Breeders' Cup Classic

winner Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) back to face Will Take Charge (Unbridled's

Song) who he narrowly beat here in the 2013 Classic.

Mucho Macho Man made his seasonal debut with a 14-length win in the Sunshine

Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park and Will Take Charge was a terrific second

in the Donn Handicap (G1) behind a track record setter.

So both are coming into this year's Big 'Cap in solid form. The connections

of both have resisted the allure of the $10 million Dubai World Cup later in the

month and will stay home to race on Santa Anita's dirt racing surface.

But, even though he hasn't won since the Pacific Classic (G1)

and has lost his last three starts, I think the race sets up perfectly for Game

On Dude. He won last year's renewal by almost eight lengths and comes in here

with a major pace advantage over his two main rivals.

The crazy thing with Game On Dude is that he has been nowhere in the past two

runnings of the Breeders' Cup Classic on his home track but everyone seems to

forget that in the 2011 Classic at Churchill Downs, he was absolutely brilliant

when he stayed on to the final yards while racing on the worst part of the

track.

After his Classic debacle here last year, he came back and just missed

beating Will Take Charge in the Clark Handicap (G1) going nine furlongs at

Churchill Downs, finishing a head second. Granted, his first start of this year

was eventful, when he was off the board in the San Antonio (G2) going nine

furlongs, but now he shows up at 10 furlongs where he has won five times

including three Grade 1 stakes last year.

Even though he has shown a willingness to rate early, he has more than enough

gas for Mike Smith to use early and dominate. He came out of the San Antonio in

good form and has been drilled by Bob Baffert like the old days. Maybe Baffert

didn't want to tighten the screws too much for his first start of the year but

it looks like he's not taking any chances for this year's Big 'Cap. A brilliant

seven-furlong workout in 1:25 4/5 on February 26 indicates all systems are go.

Not sure we will get a price on Game on Dude even though he should be third

choice in the wagering. The top three should soak up most of the betting dollars

so 5-to-2 should be a fair price in the win pool. Where do I sign up?

Earlier on the Santa Anita card on Saturday, Baffert will send out Kaleem

Shah's Bayern (Offlee Wild) in the San Felipe (G2) going 1 1/16 miles on the

main track. It will be his stakes debut but he has electrified the racing world

with a sensational career debut when he won by three lengths going seven

furlongs in complete command then came back and beat the highly-regarded Tap It

Rich (Tapit) by 15 lengths going a two-turn mile against allowance foes.

Even though he went gate to wire last out, he relaxed early and finished like

a turf horse in a slow-paced race. His BRIS Pace figures were 81, 89 and 107 so

he had a ton of late energy. The challenge for him and Gary Stevens is to relax

again, but this time behind horses. Against nine rivals with lots of early

speed, going gate to wire might win him the San Felipe but not learn how to

stretch his speed out.

I look for Stevens to ride him like he was on Beholder (Henny Hughes) and get

him to relax early and let others go to the lead. From post 6, he doesn't have

to worry about him getting engaged in a speed duel or shuffled too far back so

the opportunity to school him in the right circumstances will be present.

Baffert also has the talented Midnight Hawk (Midnight Lute) entered and if

Bayern gets the betting money based on the hype, then this guy becomes the

"Other Baffert.: After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park, he came back to

win the Sham Stakes (G3) going two turns as the 2-to-5 favorite.

Last out in the Bob Lewis Stakes (G2), Midnight Hawk grinded along to loom

boldly in the deep stretch before weakening to third. He draws post nine and

Mike Smith will have to use some early energy to keep him from getting hung out

wide on the first turn.

When you look at horses being products of their trainers, Kristo (Distorted

Humor) could be sitting on a big race. Not known for pushing his young horses

early, John Sadler gave this colt two, sprint efforts before stretching him out

to two turns here and he went gate to wire to win by over six lengths.

He held on for second in his stakes debut behind Midnight Hawk in the Sham

and now he comes back off 56 days rest for Sadler who is able to pick up Joel

Rosario for the race. By the great Distorted Humor, Kristo is out of a minor

stakes winner that is a half-sister to champion sprinter Smoke Glacken and

multiple graded stakes winner Smokey Glacken.