Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 16, 2015

by

Dick Powell

I have no idea how good Calculator (In Summation) is and I have no idea whether

he can get the 10 furlongs to win the Kentucky Derby. And, I have no idea

how good the horses were that he faced in Saturday's Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa

Anita.

But what I do know is that was some performance the maiden breaker put in when

he trounced his seven rivals by more than four lengths in extremely fast time without

exerting too much energy. Throw in a wide trip and it was as good as anyone in

his crop.

Second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Front Runner Stakes (G1) last year, both

times to early Kentucky Derby favorite American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile),

Calculator went into the Sham as one of the best maiden sophomores around and

was heavily favored at 3-to-5. He earned a healthy 100 BRIS speed rating and

stamped himself as one of this year's most exciting classic prospects.

On March 27, 2009 in this column, I wrote the following about the Dubai World

Cup held at Nad al Sheba's dirt track:

"The dirt track at Nad al Sheba

favors horses with speed or tactical speed. You can watch races from there

online at www.emiratesracing.com and rarely will you have a horse make up a lot

of ground in the stretch even though it is almost three furlongs long. Part of

this is due to the nature of the course and part of it is due to a severe

kickback that the frontrunners throw back into the faces of those behind them.

"If you are not a frontrunner, the next best thing is a wide trip. Time after

time you will see a horse win from an impossibly wide post position. Riders

intentionally avoid getting stuck behind horses and sacrifice ground to get

clear of the kickback. The only real exceptions are experienced horses that race

at Nad al Sheba and have shown an affinity for the track."

Here it is six years later and the racing switched to the magnificent Meydan

Racecourse. For the first five years, racing there was conducted on turf and the

Tapeta main track.

But after last year's World Cup was finished, it was decided to take out the Tapeta main track and replace it with dirt. And it is still hot in Dubai so the

kickback that was present at Nad al Sheba is back in full force at Meydan.

So much so that Mike De Kock, the leading foreign trainer by total wins at the

Dubai World Cup Carnival, announced after one day of racing on the dirt at

Meydan, that he will not have a single entry on the dirt this season.

According to De Kock, "to win on this track, you need runners with good gate

speed that can jump and lead or sit up second or third." But, here is the punch

line, "The kickback from just behind the front rank is bad, the slower horses

get it in the face and sometimes it is so severe that they battle to breathe."

This has to be good news for American horses that are pointing to this year's

World Cup since taking De Kock's horses out of contention is like Todd Pletcher

saying he is staying home on the first Saturday of May.

The problem is that with the hot sun during the day and high temperatures, there

is not enough water that can be put down to keep the track tight. Whatever water

is put down quickly evaporates and the result is a track that has a devastating

kickback into the horses and riders racing behind.

Tapeta, on the other hand, maintained its moisture content remarkably well,

considering the conditions, and while it changed as the sun went down and it

cooled off, the changes were entirely predictable and consistent.

I am such a Black Caviar fan, winner of 25 of 25 starts in

Australia and Royal Ascot, that I have her picture on the front of my business

card (Zarkava is on the back.) Shocking won the 2009

Melbourne Cup when I was there and I made a big score on him despite racing

wide for two miles.

Black Caviar was trained by Peter Moody and Shocking was trained by Mark

Kavanagh. Both, along with Danny O'Brien, were in the news the past few days

when horses they trained tested positive for excessive levels of the banned

substance cobalt chloride.

In Australia, or more specifically in Victoria since New South Wales and the

rest of Australia only implemented cobalt testing and penalties on January 1 of

this year, the threshold for a cobalt chloride positive is 200 micrograms per

liter of urine. The three trainers are subject of up to three years suspension

if found guilty

According to Dr. Brian Stewart, Racing Victoria's chief veterinarian, the

200-microgram level was twice what it is in Hong Kong and deemed to be "quite

generous." Stewart told the Sydney Morning Sun that there is "next to no chance"

that a horse could naturally test above the limit for the substance that is

present in all horses.

Cobalt chloride causes the body to believe it is deprived of oxygen and

therefore the body produces an increase of red blood cells. It works similarly

to EPO (Erythropoietin), which is commonly used to treat anemia due to cancer

chemotherapy. Beside given the horse an advantage with more red blood cells

carrying oxygen to its muscles, it is incredibly dangerous to the horse since,

when used improperly, it causes a thickening of the blood resulting in heart

attacks and death.

We keep hearing that the American medication issue is a "perception problem" but

the perception from here is that once again, just like with steroids and

milkshakes, America is way ahead of other countries that claim to race on hay,

oats and water. When you couple Moody, Kavanagh, O'Brien, Mahmood al Zarooni,

Sheikh Mohammed and even the Queen, all of whom have had medication positives

recently, it makes you wonder who really has the "perception problem."