Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 27, 2015

by Dick Powell

Lots of ways to approach last Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and

any conclusions one might draw going forward. In no apparent order:

The track was extremely dry and with a brisk wind blowing, it produced very

slow running times. After six furlongs were contested in 1:11.65, they took

34.63 seconds to run the final five-sixteenths of a mile. The main track played

slow all day and even on Sunday, when Khozan (Distorted Humor) crushed allowance

foes going a mile by 12 lengths, taking 51.50 seconds to run the last half-mile.

Upstart (Flatter) is for real. He has shown that he can handle any surface

and can handle the classic distances. On Saturday, he raced wide throughout and

Trakus showed that he covered 20 feet more than Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid)

and 54 feet more than third place finisher Frammento (Midshipman). His bearing

out in the stretch was the result of Jose Ortiz's left-hand whip than any sign

of unsoundness.

Rick Violette, who did a great job last year with Samraat (Noble Causeway)

getting ready for the first Saturday in May, can come back in the Florida Derby

(G1) on March 29, which gives him five weeks before Kentucky. Or, he could wait

another week for the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, but that would only give

him four weeks. Look for Upstart to stay down in Florida and contest the Florida

Derby.

Turning for home, Frosted (Distorted Humor) looked like he might be an easy

winner. Irad Ortiz Jr. had a strong hold on him and hadn't even asked him to go

at the top of the stretch. When the moment of truth came, Frosted came up

completely empty with no apparent excuse.

To make it even worse for the Boys in Blue from Godolphin, Imperia (Medaglia

d'Oro) was dreadful as the 3-to-2 favorite in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the

Fair Grounds. He was far back early, made a nominal middle move before offering

nothing coming home.

Itsaknockout just keeps getting the job done for Starlight Stables, who

always seems to develop a promising three-year-old this time of year. The colt

raced between horses down the backstretch, moved up on the turn then looked like

a winner until Ortiz steered Upstart into his path. His win in the Fountain of

Youth was a backwards move off his fast win going a mile on January 4 against

allowance foes, but it should set him up well down the road.

That blur in the homestretch was Frammento, trained by none other than Nick

Zito who is back on the Triple Crown trail. The colt added blinkers and Johnny

Velazquez for the Fountain of Youth and made up nine lengths on the leaders from

the far turn to the wire. With Zito at the helm, expect more improvement.

Don't know how to compare these horses with their California counterparts.

Have no idea how Dortmund (Big Brown) and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile)

compare to Upstart, but these are some solid horses racing in the East.

I would have disqualified Upstart for bearing out in the stretch into

Itsaknockout's path. Ortiz was making no effort to keep him straight. The final

margin of 2 1/2 lengths might indicate that it did not affect the outcome but

the foul occurred when Itsaknockout pulled to within a half-length and had a ton

of momentum.

Elsewhere, Main Sequence's (Aldeberan) final surge in the deep stretch to win

the Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2) was sensational. He covered his last furlong in

11.20 seconds and lengthened his enormous stride with ease.

After a modest pace, it looked like Twilight Eclipse (Purim) might pull off

the mile upset when he had a length cushion at the sixteenth pole but Main

Sequence devoured him; just like he had the previous four times they faced each

other. Considering Main Sequence was not fully cranked up, it was an awesome

finish and now he goes on to the $6 million Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) at 1 1/2

miles at Meydan in Dubai.