Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 25, 2006

by Dick Powell

Thanksgiving Day is known for a lot of things, but for many racing fans and

handicappers it marks the beginning of the racing season at Fair Grounds Race

Course. Just as NASCAR opens its season with its biggest event, the Daytona 500,

opening day at the Fair Grounds starts with a bang and usually attracts its

biggest on-track crowd of the season.

For serious handicappers that are looking for a niche racetrack to follow

religiously, Fair Grounds fits the bill. It has strong pool sizes but unlike

some of its winter competitors, it doesn't attract a lot of "wiseguy" money.

Favorites are not overbet and despite Louisiana's relatively high takeout, there

is plenty of pari-mutuel value. And, if you pay attention, there are some great

races to bet on.

Louisiana law requires each racetrack to run three Louisiana-bred races each

day. It is these races, with some obscure sires and pedigrees, that often turn

off out-of-state simulcast players.

But the La-bred races usually have full fields and can be very rewarding

for bettors. Many shy away from these races, but I wouldn't recommend ignoring them. If they show up in a

Pick 4 or Pick 4 that you

want to play, go ahead and play it.

Armed with BRIS' Ultimate Past Performances, there is no reason to worry

about not being familiar with the pedigrees and trainers of Louisiana racing.

With last year's racing season abbreviated and moved to Louisiana Downs, this

will be the first race meet in the Crescent City since March of 2005.

Historically, the main track, despite its long stretch, favors speed in sprint

races. In two-turn dirt races, it's pretty equal between front runners and

closers.

The turf course historically favored closers. The grass on the old Fair

Grounds turf course was long and deep which yielded relatively-slow running

times. BRIS' Late Pace figures can be crucial here. Anyone who has watched Fair

Grounds turf racing over the years knows that it doesn't pay to watch the teletimer for the early pace fractions.

How many times have you seen a horse loose on an easy lead setting a dawdling

pace that fails to stay the trip? Except this year might be different.

All the salt residue that Hurricane Katrina deposited on the old turf course

forced it to be torn out completely and seeded with different grass blends. I am

not an agronomist, but I know from talking to friends at the track that it grew

in perfectly and will be mowed. Whether it is more speed-favoring than the

previous course or not, and I have to assume it will be, we will have to wait and

see.

My strategy for the Fair Grounds meet this year is first make a commitment.

For me, that means watching as many races as I can, download and print out charts

from Brisnet each day, build a chart book, and set up a TIVO season pass

to record as many Fair Grounds replay shows that I can on DirectTV.

Armed with all that information, I enter relevant data into a spreadsheet

that enables me to keep track of the meet. I can then generate winners' lists

that conveniently allows me to look up not only horses that won their last start, but under what conditions they do it.

Doing this work enables me to examine trainer patterns and what their

individual strengths and weaknesses are. I apply the same methodology to sires.

When trainers or sires win, what were the conditions? Long, short, wet, dry,

turf, dirt, class etc. are all examined to see if there any patterns that I

might be missing at first glance.

While the first few weeks of the meet will provide a lot of opportunity, I

prefer to wait. There is racing four days a week until January when Monday is

added. I prefer to wait for most of the horses to have a race over the track and

wait for all the shippers to get here. Churchill Downs, the source of many open company starters

at Fair Grounds, doesn't close until Saturday and most of

the horses that competed during the last week there won't be on the track for at

least three weeks.

It's a long meet and there is no rush. That said, Fair Grounds can be a tough

track to wager on occasionally. It has its own little quirks and that is why I

recommend that you make the commitment to it and follow the entire meet.

Thanksgiving Weekend is that last big weekend of racing in America and it

goes out with a bang with top-class racing at Aqueduct, Churchill and Hollywood

Park. Two juvenile colts are racing that could have a big impact on next year's

classic races.

NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Albert the Great) will make his third lifetime start in the

nine-furlong Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct. A monster maiden winner at Belmont in

his career debut going a mile in 1:35 1/5, which earned a BRIS Speed figure of

103, he came back with a terrific second in the Champagne S. (G1) despite

being hammered at the start of the race.

Even though Champagne winner Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) was a distant third

next out in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) next time out, Nobiz Like Shobiz's form

should not be hurt by it. He was wisely kept out of the Breeders' Cup by Barclay Tagg

and will finish his juvenile season with his first two-turn effort.

If the track comes up bad, and it is raining heavily in New York as I write

this Thursday morning, Tagg has a backup plan having nominated Nobiz Like Shobiz

to the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3) at Delta Downs next Friday night.

At Churchill on Saturday, TIZ WONDERFUL (Tiznow) goes for his third win in

three starts when he takes on eight rivals in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club

S. (G2). Another one who dominated in his career debut, he ran in the Iroquois

S. (G3) next out at a straight mile and won easily after contesting

the early pace in tight quarters.

Like Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tiz Wonderful will be making his two-turn debut in

his third start. The Scott Blasi-trainee has an unbelievable stride, but that

might be his downfall next year on the first Saturday in May.

In the Iroquois, Garrett Gomez went through a hole on the inside after

checking him, but once clear they were never in tight quarters. My question about Tiz Wonderful is that as good as he is, and he is really good, how will he be

handle a big field when he might have to run in heavy traffic?

Horses with long strides like him take longer to get going after the rider

asks them to go, and this could be his undoing later on. He runs with his head

held pretty high and doesn't level off as well as he should. I am sure that

Scott Blasi, and Steve Asmussen when he gets back from suspension in January,

will spend the off season trying to get him to drop his haunches better and

round him off.