Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 23, 2007

by Dick Powell

Last Saturday saw three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races, three outcomes and

unlimited conclusions to draw.

At Tampa Bay Downs, the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) saw the much anticipated return

to the races of last year's juvenile male champion -- STREET SENSE (Street Cry

[Ire]). Off for 133 days since his crushing victory in the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs, he appeared on the track with his

now-customary front-leg bandages for trainer Carl Nafzger. The bettors made him

the 6-5 second choice.

Awaiting him was the 7-10 favorite, Todd Pletcher's Any Given Saturday

(Distorted Humor), who finished last year with a close second to the

highly regarded Tiz Wonderful (Tiznow) in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2). Any

Given Saturday made his three-year-old debut at Tampa Bay Downs with an easy win

in the Sam Davis S. as the 1-5 favorite.

None of the other five starters went off at less than 20-1, and the two-horse

race developed down the backside. John Velazquez decided to stalk the pace three

wide while Calvin Borel took up his usual place on the rail while tracking the

front trio in fourth.

BRIS now gives you Race Shapes in each horse's past performances and the

Tampa Bay Derby was -5, -6. This means that the pace of the Tampa Bay Derby was

slower than normal and both contenders would show a lot of late energy.

Velazquez kept Any Given Saturday on the outside, but Borel stayed committed

to the rail around the far turn with Street Sense. They hooked up for the length

of the stretch with Borel whipping hard with his left hand and Velazquez running

right next to him on his outside.

Neither colt would give an inch and just when it looked like Street Sense

might surge to a clear lead, Any Given Saturday came back at him right at the

wire. The margin was a nose and it went to Street Sense, but there was no

disgrace in defeat for Any Given Saturday. They both earned BRIS Speed figures

of 105, but the difference was Street Sense running a BRIS Late Pace figure of

116 compared to Any Given Saturday's 110.

Carl Nafzger has said all along that Street Sense would have only two starts

this year to get ready for the Derby. While a hard, gut-wrenching effort is not

what most trainers are looking for, the race might do him a world of good.

What if Pletcher decided to pass the race? Street Sense would have demolished

a bad group of horses and not get much out of the race. Considering how much

time trainers plan on having between races, the grueling race should do him more

good than harm. It's not like the Derby is two weeks away.

I was ultra-impressed with Any Given Saturday. He showed he can rate off a

slow pace, finish full of run and was as game and determined as they come. He

was coming back at the wire and when you factor in the ground loss, it was a top

effort.

For both colts, the next race will be critical. How they come out of this

race will be closely watched. They can overcome a tough race but can they

overcome two in a row? That remains to be seen, but they answered the question

of how competitive they are.

At Oaklawn Park, CURLIN (Smart Strike) was not only making his graded debut in the Rebel S. (G3), but it was his two-turn debut in only his second

career start. A gigantic maiden winner for Helen Pitts at Gulfstream, he has

been purchased privately and turned over to Steve Asmussen who trained him at

Fair Grounds leading up to the race.

The favorite was Flying First Class (Perfect Mandate), an easy winner here

going six furlongs while earning a Speed figure of 107. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas,

he had trained brilliantly at Oaklawn, inspiring many to tout him as a horse

with a big future. Edgar Prado was inspired enough to fly in for the mount.

A strange start to the race scrambled any expected pace scenarios.

Teuflesberg (Johannesburg), front-end winner of the Southwest S. last out, was

unprepared for the start and wound up fourth early. Curlin didn't break

particularly well and wound up on the outside while Flying First Class settled

into second chasing Xchanger (Exchange Rate), the unexpected pacesetter.

The early pace was solid, +1, +4, according to BRIS, and Curlin was on the

far outside throughout. Xchanger still held the lead nearing the top of the

stretch after running six furlongs in 1:12.51. He and Flying First Class began

to tire from their early efforts, and Robby Albarado moved Curlin up on the

outside turning for home.

Despite losing ground the entire trip, Curlin continued on and drew off to a

5 1/4-length win over Officer Rocket (GB) (Officer). He earned a solid 101 Speed

figure, the same as he ran in his career debut.

It was a big race for Curlin, who now goes on to his final Derby prep with

only two career starts. He has shown boundless energy in his two starts and the

only negative I can find in his Rebel win was the fact that he ran a bit

one-paced throughout. He has a lot of catching up to do, but his rivals don't

have that much more experience than he does in today's brave new world of staying in

the barn.

The last of the three Derby prep races was conducted at Santa Anita. The San

Felipe S. (G2) drew only five horses and the public made Air Commander (Point

Given) the 6-5 favorite off a sharp allowance score going nine furlongs. Trained

by Bob Baffert, he has followed his sire by getting better as the races get

longer.

The second choice in the betting at 22-10 was COBALT BLUE (Golden Missile),

who had never won at a distance farther than six furlongs in three starts for

Doug O'Neill. On paper, it didn't look like there was much pace in the race and

Victor Espinoza took advantage by sending Cobalt Blue to the front. He crawled

through a first half in :47.57, and the BRIS race shape showed an extremely slow

-11, -11.

Espinoza kept letting it out a notch as they neared the top of the stretch,

and only Air Commander was able to make any kind of run in the lane. Cobalt Blue

eventually drew off to a two-length win that proved virtually nothing other than

earning him enough graded-stakes earnings to guarantee a start on the first

Saturday in May.

He might be a good horse and distance racing might suit him based on a stout

pedigree. But Cobalt Blue's San Felipe win was the result of a leader setting a

slow pace against a small field. These races don't prove much, and the BRIS

Speed Figure of 98 that he earned is nowhere near the leaders of the division

going two turns.