Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 11, 2007

by Dick Powell

When Dale Earnhardt finally won his first Daytona 500 in 1998, the entire pit

row came out and greeted him as he drove back to victory lane. Earnhardt had

never won the Super Bowl of stock car racing, and when he did, everyone who

worked on the "backstretch" came out to congratulate him.

When Calvin Borel won the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) aboard STREET

SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) last Saturday, it was just as popular. The scene of

Borel bringing Street Sense back to the winner's circle and being congratulated

by the other riders, outriders, grooms, trainers and anyone else that had a pass

to be on the track, was just as memorable as Earnhardt's.

Earnhardt was expected to win the Daytona 500 for many years, and it was the

only hole in his resume that saw him win seven seasonal titles. Borel's victory,

even riding the favorite, was astounding for different reasons.

Always a solid journeyman rider, Borel had plied his trade mostly on the

Midwest circuits and away from the spotlight of the big races. But, that all

changed last November 4 when he rode Street Sense to a stunning victory in the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) with a sensational up-the-rail ride. Street Sense

clinched the title of juvenile champion and now the monkey was on his back for

the Derby, since no Juvenile winner had ever gone on to win the Derby.

But, there was something different about Street Sense and all that swirled

around him. His trainer, Carl Nafzger, won the Derby in 1990 with Unbridled and had mapped out a conservative plan of two races to get ready, and

also chose the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to begin his season. Borel had ridden Street

Sense in every career start, and Nafzger never wavered in his commitment to

continue to ride him.

Both of Street Sense's preps gave him what he needed in terms of conditioning,

and when he had a sensational workout 10 days before the race, Nafzger

pronounced him fit and ready to go. There was little else to do but keep him

happy and wait.

The post position draw could not have gone better as Nafzger took advantage

of an early slot and chose post 7. Churchill was a sea of mud late Friday

afternoon when torrential rain hit Louisville, Kentucky, right after the Kentucky Oaks (G1),

but the sun shone bright on Saturday and the track dried out so that it was

upgraded to "fast" by the 7TH race.

But, still, what makes Borel so good as a rider -- saving ground -- looked

like it might be a negative against 19 rivals. I told a friend of mine that

Calvin would not get away with "cowboy riding" in a big field. Little did I

know.

At the start, Mario Pino broke Hard Spun (Danzig) beautifully and had the

lead all to himself when he covered the first quarter in :22.96 going into the

first turn. Expected outside pace pressure from Stormello (Stormy Atlantic) and

Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) did not materialize, and Pino was able to

keep Hard Spun clear.

Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) wound up between horses going into the first

turn, and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) and Stormello were already chasing

the pace while wide.

On a very hot day with high humidity, many horses were hot going to the gate,

but Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) looked great. His work partner, RAGS TO RICHES

(A.P. Indy), won the Kentucky Oaks the day before off a similar layoff and I

could not have been any happier with the way things were going. He was near the

back of the pack where he was supposed to be, and the ultra-talented Curlin

(Smart Strike) was shuffled back early to 13th place. Street Sense was nowhere

to be found and as they straightened away for the run down the backstretch; the

Juvenile champion had only one horse beat.

Pino had a ton of horse and kept Hard Spun to task while slowing the pace

down somewhat. I kept waiting for Velazquez to get Circular Quay going on the

outside but when he was asked for run, he wasn't picking up horses with the same

authoritative rush that we had seen previously. Oh well. With Any Given Saturday

wide and Cowtown Cat cooked while chasing Hard Spun, it looked like it wasn't

going to be Pletcher's day.

Nearing the top of the stretch, Hard Spun spurted to a three-length lead and

might have been home free under different circumstances. But from the back of

the pack, Borel had Street Sense picking off horses in bunches while saving

ground. Every time Borel needed a hole to open, it did, and there were about

three times when Borel might have had to slam on the brakes if someone drifted

in to him.

But like the Red Sea, the field parted each time, and Borel turned for home

with a full head of steam with only one horse to catch. Hard Spun was brilliant,

but Street Sense ran right by him a furlong out and cruised to a 2 1/4-length

victory. Robby Albarado got Curlin clear turning for home and he rallied nicely

for third. When Mark Guidry moved Imawildandcrazyguy (Wild Event) from dead last

to get fourth, it meant that three of the top four riders were Cajun-breds. Maybe

their fearlessness is what's needed in these types of races.

Street Sense's final time of 2:02.17 was good, but not great. He earned a

solid BRIS Speed rating of 108, which was one point less than what Rags To

Riches earned in her Oaks win the day before on a muddy track. Saturday's track

was drying out all day, and the long time between main track races made it very

hard to gauge how the track was playing. It seemed that the inside, especially

the two-path, might have been the place to be. From where I was watching from

the fourth floor Sky Terrace, I could see a strip of moisture just out from the

rail and that might have been the place to be with the best footing.

It wasn't the inside bias that we saw in last year's Breeders' Cup, but many

of the horses that were on the outside seemed to be spinning their wheels while

the horses on the inside seemed to be grabbing the track better. Plus, saving

ground is saving ground, and the horse that does, runs the shortest distance. Duh!

For Pletcher, it was a tough day -- five starters and none even earned a

check. The problem with running all five is when things go wrong, horses that

should have run in the Preakness S. (G1) are now on the sidelines. Remember,

Pletcher's mentor and former boss, D. Wayne Lukas, won his first classic (Preakness)

with Codex in 1980, eight years before his first Derby win

with Winning Colors in 1988. And, if you really have a good memory,

you might remember that Codex did not even run in the Derby since there was a

mistake in the paperwork and he wasn't nominated.

Maybe if Pletcher had run six horses in the Derby, his luck might have been

better. Granted Friday's Oaks was run on a muddy track, but Rags to Riches was

spectacular, earning a Speed rating of 109. She was wide every step of the

way and still kicked clear in the lane.

Also, if the media is going to keep score regarding the "majors," why isn't

the Oaks considered one? In Europe, the Oaks is counted as a "major" just as the

One Thousand Guineas is. Only considering three races for males as "majors" is

unfair, and the headline Saturday should have been "Pletcher wins his first

major," and not what we got to read Sunday morning.