Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 11, 2009

by Dick Powell

Lost in all the attention that was received by American racing over the

Thanksgiving Day Weekend was another incredible performance turned in by VODKA (Tanino

Gimlet) in the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1).

The first filly winner in 64 years of the Japanese Derby (Jpn-G1) two years

ago, she has continued her success against male runners by winning the Tenno Sho

(Autumn) (Jpn-G1) last year and two consecutive runnings of the Yasuda Kinen

(Jpn-G1). But these races were between a mile and a mile and a quarter and

despite her win in the Derby she was still suspect going a mile and a half.

In the Japan Cup, trainer Katsuhiko Yumii decided to remove Japan's legendary

champion rider Yutaka Take on Vodka and replace him with Christophe Lemaire. It

might have been Lemaire's first ride aboard Vodka, but he rode her like he was

her regular pilot. He was able to get her to race forwardly while relaxed for

the first mile as it looked like a very fast pace was being set.

Lemaire asked her for run turning for home and it was here when she won the

race. Rather than try to rate her for as long as possible, Lemaire opened up a

clear lead and dared her 17 rivals to come catch her with less than a furlong

remaining. The 13-5 favorite began to shorten stride and a host of rivals loomed

boldly. Second choice Oken Bruce Lee (Jungle Pocket) was making the strongest

move and looked like a winner a few strides from the wire, but Vodka was grimly

holding on. They hit the wire together and after a long review the photo showed

that Vodka held on by a desperate nose.

To show you how deep the field for the Japan Cup was this year, Conduit (Ire)

(Dalakhani),  winner of this year's King George VI & Queen Elizabeth S.

(Eng-G1) and the last two runnings of the  Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), was

farther back in fourth.

Vodka now has earnings of $12,089,295 which includes seven Group 1 stakes

victories. She bled some in the Japan Cup and will be ineligible to run in the

season-ending Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1) but will end her career in the $10 million

Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) on March 27 at Meydan Racecourse. She hasn't gained the

fame that RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro), GOLDIKOVA or ZENYATTA have this

year racing against males, but that could all change in Dubai when the entire

racing world will be watching.

Winstar Farm's run of success with juvenile males continued last Friday night

in Vinton, Louisiana, when RULE (Roman Ruler) gamely won the $750,000 Delta

Jackpot S. (G3) at Delta Downs. Winner of the Jean Lafitte S. in track-record

time there last out by nine lengths, he had to work a lot harder Friday night on

a bizarre night in Southwest Louisiana that saw frigid temperatures and some

snow falling.

Sent to the front by Johnny Velazquez, the son of red-hot, first-crop sire

Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) set a demanding pace over a very sloppy, sealed

track. The even-money favorite covered the first half in :46.75 and he was under

heavy pressure by Uh Oh Bango (Top Hit), an Arizona-bred that trains in

Remington Park and just missed in the Iroquois S. (G3) last out at Churchill.

Glenn Corbett loomed boldly on Uh Oh Bango and it looked like he and trainer

Kory Owens were going to win a $750,000 race, but Velazquez went to a strong

left-hand whip and Rule prevailed by a hard-earned neck to give Win Star its

third graded stakes race.

The Delta Jackpot will be a hard race to evaluate down the road. Rule earned

a BRIS Speed rating of 98 which is very good going two turns for a juvenile.

Coupled with 101 he earned when winning the Jean Lafitte, he goes to the Triple

Crown trail as good as anyone. Rule has now earned $450,000 in graded stakes

earnings so he has a guaranteed spot in next year's Kentucky Derby (G1). He

showed that he can run on a difficult, wet surface and when challenged at the

top of the stretch, he gamely battled on. Winstar should have a lot of fun with

him next year.