Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 30, 2013

by Dick Powell

A total of 47,597 fans attended this year's Travers Stakes (G1) and

more than $41 million was wagered on Saturday's races at Saratoga nationwide. On

Sunday, 29,310 fans attended Del Mar for the Pacific Classic (G1) and $20

million was bet on the races nationwide. One thing that has been constant in

today's world of declining business is that the major races days are as big as

ever.

Saratoga saw a continuation of the best weather ever.

Almost on cue, it started to rain Monday evening as the races were finishing and

by Wednesday, it was back to fast and firm. With the temporary rails taken down

late in the meet, speed has been very hard to beat with many turf races going

gate to wire.

For the Travers Stakes on Saturday, the weather could not

be any better with temperatures in the high 70s and little humidity. It

was almost Del Mar-like here in upstate New York and the crowds responded. The

14-race card contained eight turf races and none of us could ever remember a

Saratoga racecard with that many turf races. Thank God for good weather.

The stakes action kicked off in race nine with the Test

Stakes (G1) for three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs on the main track. It attracted

a field of eight with the betting favorite, California shipper Sweet Lulu, sent off at 9-5. The Jerry Hollendorfer shipper was undefeated in

three career starts on synthetic tracks and was making her dirt and stakes debut

all at once.

In California, she showed the ability to either relax early

or go to the front so Julien Leparoux wisely stalked the early pace of Baby J (J

Be K) through a half-mile in :44.95. When asked, she responded to take a

short lead and then battled to the wire to win the Test by a head over Wildcat

Lilly (D'wildcat), who was dismissed at 7-1 despite almost winning the

Prioress Stakes (G1) last out here. Second choice My Happy Face (Tiz Wonderful)

checked in a troubled-trip third.

In the Ballston Spa Stakes (G2), Laughing (Dansili) looked

to be in the perfect spot being the one to catch from the rail and, lo and

behold, she was. Jose Lezcano, who has been riding the turf here as well as

anyone, gunned to the front and never looked back after winning the Diana Stakes

(G1) last out with the same tactics.

The King's Bishop (G1) was next and this one was nearly

impossible with 14 sophomores going seven furlongs. The race looked like a pace

meltdown was possible and sure enough, after a hotly contested first half-mile

in :44.60 , it happened. Turning for home, Mentor Cane (Mizzen Mast)

emerged with a clear lead and opened up four lengths with a furlong to go.

It was either going to be him or one of the talented

closers but few could have predicted that Capo Bastone (Street Boss) would be

the one to take full advantage and run the leader down and win going away at

odds of 28-1. Todd Pletcher had three runners in the King's Bishop and this one

was given the least chance of winning but no matter -- the race set up for him

and fell into his lap. Mentor Cane is the one to watch out of here with the big

sprint stakes coming up this fall.

The Travers attracted a field of nine with

three horses taking the majority of the betting money. Haskell (G1) winner Verrazzano (More Than Ready) was the favorite at 8-5 with Palace Malice (Curlin)

second in the wagering at 2.45-1 and Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon) the

third choice at 3.15-1.

Like most races, no matter what the distance, this one was

severely affected by the start when Palace Malice missed the break and was not

up on the pace as expected. Instead, Moreno (Ghostzapper) was loose on a steady

lead at 31-1 and led the field through modest fractions without much pace

pressure.

Jose Lezcano, filling in for the injured Joel Rosario, had

Orb down on the rail in fourth place for most of the trip and closer to the lead

than expected. Luis Saez wisely put Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) right next to him and Orb

never had an opportunity to get off the rail.

Turning for home, the rail opened up enough for Orb to have

clear running and at one point he did have a short lead. But, Moreno would not

throw in the towel and kept battling back. He put Orb away in the final yards

but Will Take Charge came up on his outside and used his stride length to best

advantage and won the Travers by a nose. Orb won the photo for show over Palace

Malice, who raced extremely wide after his poor start and was probably tons the

best.

Even though Will Take Charge figured some off his second in

the Jim Dandy, his poor races in the Triple Crown races were hard to ignore.

Yes, some horses emerge in the second half of the season but they don't usually

run seven times before waking up at the end of August. At 9.60-1, I thought

he was an underlay.

Moreno was a fascinating starter in this year's Travers as

he has been a different horse since adding blinkers four starts back. Like his

sire, he is now maturing into a major racehorse and his terrific second showed

why a race over the track is critically important on the main track here.

With a better start, Palace Malice might have taken it all

and he bears watching the rest of the year. Fast and strong, he showed new

dimensions on Saturday that will only make him more dangerous down the road.

The dictionary is out of superlatives to describe Game On Dude (Awesome Again), who is still firing bullets at the age of six. Now with

earnings of more than $5.6 million, he just keeps getting better and better as he

uses his high cruising speed, coupled with his ability to relax, to run field

off their feet. His win in Sunday's Pacific Classic was an absolute

tour-de-force and might have been his best race ever.

The issue Bob Baffert has is how to keep him in this form

nine weeks from now for the Breeders' Cup Classic, which will be run on the

dirt at Santa Anita. He lost all chance last year when he broke poorly as the 13-10 favorite and it would be great to see him on the lead this year, daring a

top field of horses to catch him.