Handicapping Keeneland

HANDICAPPING KEENELAND

OCTOBER 5, 2006

Names to know at Keeneland

by Rich Nilsen

"Keeneland should be the national park of racing," stated the late Howard

Battle, who for four decades served as the Racing Secretary at the Central

Kentucky track. "The beauty of spring with the clean, clear air and the blooms

of the pears, crab apples and dogwoods are excelled only in October by the

yellows, golds, ambers, oranges and reds of the same flora. Besides the

aesthetic atmosphere and multitudinous contradictions to most racing

establishments -- tree-lined parking, one-mile-and-a-sixteenth course, two

finish lines, facing the sun, and being near the horses in their natural setting

-- we are still the best road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and (Kentucky) Oaks

(G1) and now the Breeders' Cup in the fall."

Yes, few, if any, tracks rival Keeneland in its beauty or history.

In addition to its serene setting, Keeneland offers a unique meet.

Handicappers should first understand how the 17-day condition book is written.

With few claiming races written, the racing cards cater to the high profile

barns that ship in from out of state for the short meet.

The only turf races are allowance events and stakes. To many owners, winning

a race at Keeneland is equivalent to capturing multiple events at another track.

Trainers

Many barns point for this meeting and arrive loaded for bear. There are also

many fine local trainers who fare exceptionally well during the short meet, and

knowing who they are behooves the horseplayer. Data provided by Bloodstock

Research Information Services Inc. (www.brisnet.com).

Tom Amoss has won 19 percent of his 59 starts over the past two years

at Keeneland. One of the finest trainers in the Midwest, Amoss wins on any

surface and any distance. High percentage moves to watch for include first off

the claim and moving up in class.

George "Rusty" Arnold II is a 24 percent winner from 46 starts and he

excels with dirt sprinters. Arnold has won with 40 percent of his two-year-old

starters over the past three years.

Patrick Biancone has more synthetic surface experience than most of

the trainers competing here as he has been based at Turfway Park's Polytrack.

The Frenchman wins with all types, but his specialty is turf runners.

Walter Bindner has quietly won 30 percent of his 27 starts at

Keeneland and has scored with 41 percent of his dirt sprinters. Binder is ultra

dangerous with both layoff horses and runners making surface changes.

Scott Blasi is the assistant trainer for Steve Asmussen. The Asmussen

barn won 19 percent of their 163 starts since 2004 and is most dangerous with

second time starters (36 percent win).

Christophe Clement has won with 26 percent of his starters. This top

turf conditioner is a master at having layoff horses prepared to run their best

race.

Steve Flint has limited stock for this meet but has reached the

winner's circle with 19 percent of his 21 starters. All of those winners have

come in dirt sprints.

Greg Foley, a veteran horseman, has won at a healthy 26 percent clip

from 23 starters. Foley has been a 38 percent winner with runners making their

second start off a layoff.

Bobby Frankel has started 40 horses over the past two years and won

with 28 percent of them. Frankel is more than a 30 percent winner in two turn

races, dirt or turf.

Neil Howard is best with dirt routers and shippers. Howard has won 26

percent from 54 starts, many at nice prices.

John Kimmel excels with runners making distance and surfaces switches.

Kimmel has been a 32 percent winner from 31 starters.

Shug McGaughey has won with 44 percent of his dirt sprinters, but he's

dangerous with all types. Last year he parlayed a second-place finish by

Pleasant Home in the Spinster S. (G1) into a runaway longshot win in the

Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

Graham Motion is best known as an expert turf conditioner, but he

consistently wins with all types (26 percent overall). The Maryland-based

horseman has won with 43 percent of his two-year-old starters.

William Mott has won with 15 percent of his 59 starts over the past

two years. Mott's best profitable angle is first-time Lasix horses.

Todd Pletcher is one of the nation's winningest trainers and has

scored at a 31 percent clip at Keeneland. The former D.Wayne Lukas protégé wins

with more than 40 percent of his first-time starters and layoff runners.

Dale Romans has won at 14 percent from 85 Keeneland starts but,

surprisingly, has had only 7 percent winners in dirt sprints.

Dallas Stewart is a 14 percent winner from 86 starters overall, but

only 4 percent with turf runners.

Nick Zito always get his stable in peak form as indicated by his 28

percent winners from 123 starters. The New York-native loves to drop claimers

sharply in price and win (43 percent). Zito also excels with two year olds and

turf-to-dirt runners.

Jockeys

At meets such as Keeneland, the majority of the races are won by the

high-profile riders. Rafael Bejarano and Robby Albarado are the ones most

frequently having their picture taken in the winner's circle. Leading riders at

tracks such as River Downs often find winning much harder when the "big names"

arrive in town.

Last fall, Bejarano won 30 races, followed by Albarado with 16 wins. Shaun

Bridgmohan rounded out the third spot with 14 victories. But look for Polytrack-proficient

rider Julien Leparoux, who leads the nation in total wins, to be easily among

the leading riders.

Breeders' Cup Preps

The highlights of the fall meeting are the Spinster (October 8), Queen

Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup S. (G1) (October 14), Breeders' Futurity

(G1) (October 7), Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) (October 7), Alcibiades (G2) (October

6), Phoenix Breeders' Cup (G3) (October 7) and the First Lady (G2) (October 14).

A first or second-place finish in the Spinster makes one a top contender for

the Breeders' Cup Distaff. No less than 10 winners have come out of the Spinster

to win racing's championship event for fillies and mares.

The Keeneland meeting is always an important stepping stone on the road to

the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. Twenty-three Breeders' Cup

winners have prepped here during the fall meet.

Summary

The Keeneland fall meeting offers 17 days of exciting racing. Focus on the

winning names presented here, and that should have you prepared to take

advantage of the many lucrative opportunities available. Good luck!

-- Rich Nilsen won a $51,000 allowance race during the 1999 fall Keeneland

meet with his turf horse Lydio. Two years later Rich won the Keeneland

handicapping contest, qualifying for Las Vegas where he finished 8th in the

National Championship.