Internationals in the Breeders' Cup

INTERNATIONALS IN THE

BREEDERS' CUP

OCTOBER 23, 2008

by Kellie Reilly

The 25th running of the Breeders' Cup features an outstanding brigade of

international raiders. Let's take a look at each of them, arranged in order of

their respective races. I'll highlight their strengths, and possible weaknesses,

before rendering my own verdict.

BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY

Filly & Mare Sprint

LADY SPRINTER (Orientate) was a speed machine in Argentina. She ran older

males ragged in the Gran Premio Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Arg-G1), defeating

multiple Group 1 hero Compasivo Cat (Easing Along), and the Gran Premio Maipu

(Arg-G1), dethroning the defending champion Knock (Luhuk). As brilliant as she

is at five furlongs, Lady Sprinter is an unknown quantity beyond that distance,

and this is a brutal spot to test seven furlongs for the first time. I'm also a

little concerned about new trainer Juan Reviriego's strategy of altering her

running style, converting her from a blistering pacesetter into a closer. While

it's a logical way of trying to help her get the added distance, such tinkering

does not often achieve the desired result. Lady Sprinter is talented enough to

do well in the United States, but this debut looks like trial by fire.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

APRIL PRIDE (GB) (Falbrav [Ire]) is a really intriguing contender in her

American debut for Jim Cassidy, and I'm thrilled that she's in the field after

being ranked only fourth on the also-eligible list at the pre-entry stage.

Formerly trained by Richard Hannon in England, the bay has been competing well

against some solid opponents, finishing three lengths behind Cuis Ghaire

(Galileo [Ire]) in the Albany S. (Eng-G3) at Royal Ascot and was most recently a

good third to the first-rate Fantasia (Sadler's Wells) in the Prestige S.

(Eng-G3). Fantasia came right back to take runner-up honors behind the unbeaten

Rainbow View (Dynaformer), England's top juvenile filly, in the Fillies' Mile

(Eng-G1). April Pride has sometimes compromised her chances by failing to relax

early, but an honest pace and longer trip should remedy that. This firm-turf

lover has serious upset potential, and she rates an excellent long-term prospect

for Southern California's turf series for sophomore fillies. In short, she looks

like a shrewd purchase for Forging Oaks Farm. Note that her sire, Falbrav (Ire),

was a close third in the 2003 Turf (G1) here at Santa Anita, and her broodmare

sire, champion Theatrical (Ire), captured the 1987 Turf at Hollywood.

The well-bred HEART SHAPED (Storm Cat), who represents the powerful Aidan

O'Brien yard, is better than her past performances imply. Indeed, like any

self-respecting O'Brien juvenile, she already has a classic engagement for next

spring, in her case the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1). The winner of the

five-furlong Marble Hill S. on firm turf at the Curragh, she was bumped at the

break of the Queen Mary S. (Eng-G2) and didn't enjoy the softish conditions in

the Cherry Hinton S. (Eng-G2). The chestnut returned from a three-month holiday

to finish an encouraging fifth in the six-furlong Cheveley Park S. (Eng-G1)

after fluffing the start. Obviously, Heart Shaped can't afford to do that here,

especially because she appears to be more of a grinder who needs to be forwardly

placed early. Considering that she's a half-sister to A.P. Valentine (A.P.

Indy), Heart Shaped is probably crying out for a longer trip, so I expect her to

give a good account of herself in the firm-turf mile.

BEYOND OUR REACH (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is still a maiden, but an

accomplished one at that. Just missing when third to a subsequent stakes-placed

filly on her debut, the Tommy Stack pupil was a creditable third in the

seven-furlong Moyglare Stud S. (Ire-G1), beaten by the top-class Again (Danehill

Dancer) and the very smart Shimah (Storm Cat). Beyond Our Reach did not thrive

when cutting back to six furlongs in the Cheveley Park, winding up ninth and

well adrift of Heart Shaped. That was also her first attempt on good-to-firm

turf, which begs the question of whether she prefers a little bit of give in the

ground. On the other hand, her connections would not have shipped her all this

way if they weren't convinced that she handles a fast surface, and she is highly

regarded enough to hold an Irish Guineas entry. I'm benevolently neutral about

her chances.

Juvenile Fillies

The David Wachman-trained PURSUIT OF GLORY (Fusaichi Pegasus) convincingly

defeated both Heart Shaped and Beyond Our Reach in the Cheveley Park, where she

stayed on well for third, beaten a total of 1 1/4 lengths by the perfect Serious

Attitude (Mtoto). Her performance was particularly commendable because the

Cheveley Park was her first race against winners, as well as her first try on

turf. A clueless fourth in her debut on the synthetic at Dundalk, the bay showed

just how much she'd advanced on the learning curve next time out at that same

track. Demonstrating a real change of gear, Pursuit of Glory romped by six

lengths, and flashed more than a hint that she may live up to her name. As a

daughter of Coronation S. (Eng-G1) heroine Sophisticat (Storm Cat), and a

granddaughter of champion Serena's Song (Rahy), she is bred in the purple. The 1

1/16-mile trip will be a novel experience for her, but that should be well

within her scope, given her pedigree as well as her rapid improvement. Pursuit

of Glory has no shortage of talent, and she is capable of snaring a Breeders'

Cup title that eluded Serena's Song.

Filly & Mare Turf

HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (Ire) (Pivotal) ranks as one of the leaders of her

generation, largely because of her heart and unwavering determination. The

O'Brien filly was an honorable third to the great Zarava and Mile (G1) threat

Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (Fr-G1), hanging on

bravely after tracking a fast pace. Halfway to Heaven later battled to narrow

victories in the Irish One Thousand Guineas and Sun Chariot S. (Eng-G1) at one

mile, and the Nassau S. (Eng-G1) at about 1 1/4 miles. The Nassau was her only

attempt at this distance, however, and as outlined in my Breeders' Cup Filly &

Mare Turf diary, she profited from an unusually advantageous set of

circumstances that will not obtain here. Halfway to Heaven, who has already

done well to outrun her sprint-oriented pedigree, may find this a shade too far.

Nor does she have quite the profile of the previous European-trained winners of

this event, who all boasted strong form versus males, and she is a touch below

her Irish contemporary Lush Lashes (Galileo [Ire]). Halfway to Heaven is

nevertheless a top-class performer with tactical speed, and her true grit should

not be underestimated. She might excel herself once again and win this, but I'm

inclined to view her as more of a minor place-getter in this spot.

Godolphin's FOLK OPERA (Ire) (Singspiel [Ire]) progressed over the course of

the season, capping her rise with an emphatic, front-running success in the E.P.

Taylor S. (Can-G1) at Woodbine. In Europe this summer, her highlights included a

victory over a decent group in the Prix Jean Romanet (Fr-G2) and a good second

in the Aphrodite S. while trying to give 15 pounds to the solid Dar Re Mi

(Singspiel [Ire]), who has chased Zarkava and Lush Lashes. Her two unplaced

efforts come with asterisks, for the ground was against her in the Lancashire

Oaks (Eng-G2) and she was taken out of her pacesetting game by the Ballydoyle

rabbits in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1). Her tactical speed is an undeniable asset

at Santa Anita, and she will stay every yard of this distance, and beyond. Like

Halfway to Heaven, though, Folk Opera has not compiled a resume equal to those

of past Filly & Mare Turf winners from Europe. While Frankie Dettori put on a

master class in the E.P. Taylor, lulling his rivals to sleep, he is unlikely to

get the same free pass on the front end here against an even better field. I may

be underestimating Folk Opera, but I believe that she needs to take another step

forward to land the spoils.

VISIT (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) is coming off a respectable third to Halfway to

Heaven and the older Darjina in the Sun Chariot. Defeated all of 1 1/2 lengths,

the Juddmonte Farms homebred was herself 3 3/4 lengths clear of fourth. Visit

showed promise last year as a juvenile, breaking her maiden in the Princess

Margaret S. (Eng-G3) and finishing second in a terrific edition of the Lowther

S. (Eng-G2). Unfortunately, she was disqualified from the Lowther after testing

positive for a tranquilizer, but that performance was surely indicative of her

true ability. Although she's never raced past a mile, her pedigree strongly

suggests that she will enjoy stepping up in trip. Visit is a half-sister to

Promising Lead (Danehill), a Group 1 heroine at 1 1/4 miles, and even more

tantalizingly for her Breeders' Cup hopes, she is out of a full sister to Hasili

(Ire) (Kahyasi), the dam of 2001 Filly & Mare Turf queen Banks Hill (GB) and

2005 Filly & Mare Turf victress Intercontinental (GB). Although she richly

deserves her spot in this event, I wonder, if she were not due to be transferred

to Bobby Frankel anyway, would she be entered? If plans called for her to remain

with Sir Michael Stoute in England next year, would she have shipped in

expressly for this? Still, one can hardly get a better pedigree angle than hers,

and I won't be shocked if she makes the frame.

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

Marathon

As the winner of the 2006 St Leger (Eng-G1), SIXTIES ICON (GB) (Galileo

[Ire]) lends a touch of class to the inaugural running of this 1 1/2-mile affair

on the main track. The Jeremy Noseda charge has had mixed fortunes since his

classic triumph, reportedly because of breathing problems, but he's been at the

top of his game of late. Sixties Icon defeated eventual Canadian International

(Can-G1) runner-up Spice Route (GB) (King's Best) in the Festival S. to kick off

his three-race winning streak, scored a hard-fought verdict in the Geoffrey

Freer S. (Eng-G3), and easily dismissed his foes in the Cumberland Lodge S.

(Eng-G3) last time out. In those past two, however, he had to overcome tardy

starts, and that could prove his undoing here. The other primary concern is his

lack of racing experience on a synthetic surface. There's no doubting his

ability, though, and it's worth remembering that when he won the Leger in fine

style, he left subsequent Turf hero Red Rocks (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) behind in

third. I imagine that Dettori will try to take measures to keep him focused at

the gate, and if he handles the Pro-Ride, Sixties Icon is the one they all have

to beat.

MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House) is the reverse of Sixties Icon, in that his

synthetic proficiency is established, but his class is not. Trained by the

up-and-coming Ralph Beckett, the gelding has steadily risen through the ranks on

the all-weather, and he most recently captured his stakes debut in the Diamond

S. at Dundalk. The Diamond form ties in with some very good types, since the

dependable runner-up had previously chased The Bogberry (Hawk Wing) and Famous

Name (Dansili [GB]) on turf, but comparing formlines across surfaces is not the

soundest methodology. By any measure, Muhannak is taking a stiff class hike

here. The only crystal clear conclusion is that he is vastly better on synthetic

than on turf, but it's anyone's guess how far that takes him against these.

Turf Sprint

Noseda's FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) is a dazzlingly fast

sophomore filly who has held her own against Europe's best male sprinters. As a

juvenile, she won the Molecomb S. (Eng-G3) over the colt Kingsgate Native, who

came right back to garner the Nunthorpe S. (Eng-G1), becoming the first

two-year-old to conquer older horses in that event since 1992. Fleeting Spirit

went on to defeat males in the Flying Childers S. (Eng-G2) in juvenile

course-record time, and she just missed to the high-class Natagora (Divine

Light) in the Cheveley Park. She opened her three-year-old campaign with a

course-record victory in the Temple S. (Eng-G2) over the tough older male

Borderlescott (Compton Place), who would go on to take this year's Nunthorpe. An

excellent third in the King's Stand S. (Eng-G1) to Equiano (Acclamation) and the

globetrotting star Takeover Target (Celtic Swing) when Noseda felt that she was

not at her best, Fleeting Spirit was rested until the Prix de l'Abbaye (Fr-G1).

When her stall failed to open, causing a false start and a fiasco, she hit her

head hard and twisted a shoe. After all of that nonsense, it was to her great

credit that she was able to take part in the re-run of the race and checked in

fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Europe's pre-eminent sprinter, Marchand d'Or (Marchand

de Sable). It's unclear how this five-furlong straightaway phenom will cope with

Santa Anita's uniquely turning downhill course, and the about 6 1/2-furlong trip

is farther than she has ever been. Of course, the gravity-assisted 6 1/2 here is

less taxing than the straight six at Newmarket, which she handled in the

Cheveley Park. She has a fantastic turn of foot, and I'm looking forward to a

big effort from her.

I won't spend an inordinate amount of space on DIABOLICAL (Artax), primarily

because his greatest success came on the dirt in the United States before he was

snapped up by Godolphin. He looked like his old self for a brief moment in Dubai

this past March, when he outclassed the field in the Mahab al Shimaal (UAE-G3).

After his disappointing performance in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1),

Diabolical was switched to the turf. Although he's run creditably most of the

time, his best results have typically come on good ground, such as his close

sixth to Marchand d'Or in the July Cup (Eng-G1) and his near-miss, troubled

second in the Diadem S. (Eng-G2) last time out. Most tellingly, trainer Saeed

bin Suroor said at Diadem time that Diabolical was in the best shape he'd ever

had him. Given his proven class, preference for fast ground and his currently

fine fettle, Diabolical is an obvious threat in the Turf Sprint. I still wonder

whether he's better on dirt, or how he would have handled the Pro-Ride, though.

The ever-dangerous Andre Fabre has dispatched ONLY ANSWER (GB) (Green

Desert), a four-year-old filly whose strongest qualification is that she excels

on good turf and will likely improve when encountering firm going here.

Successful in the Prix de Saint-Georges (Fr-G3) in May, she scored a game

victory in the Prix du Petit-Couvert (Fr-G3) in her latest venture. On both

occasions, Only Answer beat males, but not the top-tier variety that Fleeting

Spirit has beaten. Indeed, on a strict constructionist view of the form, she is

some way behind Fleeting Spirit. On the other hand, we probably have not seen

the best that Only Answer has to offer, for she has frequently encountered

softer than ideal conditions. For that reason, this daughter of multiple Group 1

heroine Occupandiste (Ire) (Kaldoun) looms as a wild card in her first try on

truly quick ground.

Dirt Mile

LORD ADMIRAL (El Prado [Ire]) will test whether one can teach an old dog new

tricks in the so-called Dirt Mile. A well-traveled seven-year-old trained by

Charles O'Brien for his father, the legendary horseman Vincent O'Brien, Lord

Admiral has never raced on a synthetic surface in his lengthy career. On the

turf, he has been a faithful servant of the stable, usually running well in

solid company while falling short of Group 1 standard. Hence, from a class

perspective, this spot fits him better than the grassy Mile. Lord Admiral has

performed best on left-handed courses, a trend that has continued this season

with scores in the Al Rashidiya (UAE-G3) and Jebel Hatta (UAE-G2), a pair of

Group 3 placings at Leopardstown, an honest fifth to the all-star New Approach

in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) and a fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at

Keeneland. Two years ago he visited Santa Anita, where he reported home a solid

third to Aragorn (Ire) in the Oak Tree Mile (G2). With plenty of early speed on

tap in the Pro-Ride Mile, Lord Admiral will get a legitimate pace to set up his

closing kick, and I wouldn't put it past this veteran to get up for a piece of

the purse.

Mile

Since I had written at length about both European contenders in my Breeders'

Cup Turf diary, I will try to hit the high points while offering something new.

GOLDIKOVA is the clear choice on form. Based in France with trainer Freddie

Head, who rode the extraordinary Miesque to her two Mile triumphs in 1987-88,

the three-year-old filly has defeated older horses in two prestigious contests.

She powered away from distaffers in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1), and she

conquered males, including Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo), in the Prix de Moulin

(Fr-G1). The Moulin form was subsequently boosted when third-placer Paco Boy

(Desert Style) romped in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1). Goldikova has tasted

defeat only three times in her career, two of those at the hands of the sublime

Zarkava, and once to an inferior opponent on heavy ground in her sophomore

debut. Her runner-up effort to Zarkava in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches

(French One Thousand Guineas) (Fr-G1) was especially noteworthy because

Goldikova literally went to her nose at the break, yet still ran down Halfway to

Heaven to grab second. That is one reason why I rate Goldikova superior to

Halfway to Heaven, despite the fact that they have both beaten the older Darjina

by the same half-length margin in different races. If Goldikova has a weakness,

it may be the way this race shapes up. In France, she has been a close stalker

who surges to the front and holds sway. Here, the pace figures to be very fast,

so she could be farther back than she's accustomed to being in the early going.

Will she come flying from farther out of it, will she find too much to do in the

stretch, or will her exceptional speed keep her close regardless of the pace? I

suspect that Goldikova's class will shine through, however the Mile unfolds.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained US RANGER (Danzig) is my longshot selection, as

described in my diary. The beautifully bred bay began his career at one mile

with excellent results, but he has not contested this distance since his

sneakily good seventh in last year's Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1). Confined to

sprints thereafter, US Ranger has been frustratingly inconsistent, and his

attitude has not gone unquestioned. On his day, however, he is capable of a huge

performance, as best exemplified when he lost a heartbreaker to Marchand d'Or in

the aforementioned July Cup. Most recently he added blinkers in the Foret and

closed for third to Paco Boy, suggesting that he's got a way to go to trouble

Goldikova. But this two-turn mile will be worlds apart from the dashes that US

Ranger has been competing in, and the stretch-out could finally bring out his

long-hidden talent.

Juvenile

BUSHRANGER (Ire) (Danetime) has been the consummate professional two-year-old

for Wachman. In the course of winning such events as the Middle Park S.

(Eng-G1), Prix Morny (Fr-G1) and Anglesey S. (Ire-G3), he has defeated several

classy performers, including Juvenile Turf contender Westphalia (Ire) (Danehill

Dancer). Indeed, other Bushranger victims have gone on to sweep the top three

places in both the Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1) and Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Fr-G1). He

has yet to race on a synthetic track, though, and an even bigger question

staring him in the face is the 1 1/16-mile trip. Bushranger has been plying his

trade at five to 6 1/2 furlongs, and his ability to cope with two turns on a

strange surface is a complete unknown. If he runs up to his European standard,

he would be a major contender, but I don't know what to expect. For whatever

it's worth, he does not strike me as the type to progress into a classic

prospect next season. Rather, I suspect that he may maintain his lofty ranking

as a sprinter, and not as a Guineas horse. If my instinct is right, Bushranger

may not put his best foot forward in the Juvenile. On the other hand, his

terrific professionalism could carry him a long way at this stage of his career,

possibly even further than he'll end up going at three.

Juvenile Turf

WESTPHALIA brings strong form into this affair, having collared the highly

regarded Zacinto (Dansili [GB]) in deep stretch to take the Champagne S.

(Eng-G2) last time out. The third-place finisher in the Champagne has since come

back to win the Silver Tankard S. at Pontefract on Monday. Two starts back, the

Aidan O'Brien pupil was sent off as the 4-5 favorite in the Futurity S.

(Ire-G2), where he disappointed on the heavy ground and wound up a well-beaten

seventh. Nevertheless, his short price against a few salty rivals on that

occasion implies that he has a fairly nice reputation at home. In his career

debut, Westphalia just missed to eventual Dewhurst hero Intense Focus (Giant's

Causeway); in July, he recovered from a slow start to finish second to

Bushranger in the aforementioned Anglesey; and next time out, he engineered a

last-to-first victory in the Hurricane Run S. at Tipperary. Aside from the

impressive manner of his triumph, his score is a useful guide to his Breeders'

Cup prospects for two reasons: it proved that he enjoys a sharp left-handed

course, and the third-placer, Driving Snow (GB) (Verglas [Ire]), has since

appeared at Keeneland and almost upset morning-line Juvenile Turf favorite

Bittel Road (Stormy Atlantic) in the Bourbon S. I think that Westphalia is a

much better colt than Achill Island (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), the Ballydoyle

runner who finished second in the inaugural 2007 running of this contest.

Westphalia can conclude his campaign with a flourish before heading into winter

quarters and eyeing his classic entries.

DONATIVUM (GB) (Cadeaux Genereux) has thankfully gotten into this race after

being relegated to the top of the also-eligible list at pre-entry time. The John

Gosden trainee fully deserved to be in the main body of the field from the

beginning. Although well beaten when showing signs of inexperience in his first

three outings, he was competing against several quality opponents, so those

efforts are not as iffy as they appear on paper. Moreover, they all occurred

before he was gelded, and he is two-for-two since that solution was imposed.

Donativum promptly broke through with a facile maiden score and followed up with

a decisive victory in the Tattersalls Timeform Million S., closing stoutly in

the latter stages to conquer the well thought-of Crowded House (Rainbow Quest)

and Solario S. (Eng-G3) winner Sri Putra (Oasis Dream [GB]), among other smart

types. (Saturday news flash: for anyone who may be reading this just in

advance of the race, note that Crowded House bolted home in the prestigious

Racing Post Trophy [Eng-G1] this morning, making Donativum, an already hot

property, even hotter in this contest.) As a gelding, Donativum will find his opportunities for glory limited in

Europe, so this could well be the start of a prosperous career in America, or at

least the first of many invasions for this talented performer. Although he bears

the lovely green of Princess Haya at present, I won't be surprised if he is

ultimately promoted to the Godolphin royal blue.

PADDY THE PRO (Ire) (Exceed and Excel), who will make his first start for

Paddy Gallagher, is the least accomplished of the European trio. I don't hold

his debut defeat against him, considering that he was slowly away on unsuitably

soft ground, but his only subsequent starts have come in all-weather sprints at

Dundalk. Paddy the Pro broke his maiden in the same event in which Juvenile

Fillies candidate Pursuit of Glory was fourth. No hasty conclusions should be

drawn from that bare result, for every other horse in that maiden race is still

a maiden at this writing, and it was obviously an educational experience for

Pursuit of Glory. Indeed, to give Paddy special credit for that would be the

equivalent of praising Change Up (Distorted Humor) for beating Rags to Riches on

her debut. Next time out, Paddy captured a premier handicap in grand style, but

again, those rivals bear no comparison to the company his comrades have been

keeping on turf. He may turn out to be a great acquisition for his connections,

but it's asking an awful lot to try two turns and step up markedly in class at

the same time.

Turf

I practically wrote a biography of EAGLE MOUNTAIN (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar

[Ire]) in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary, so I will keep my synopsis of him rather

crisp in this spot. The Irish highweight sophomore at 9 1/2 to 11 furlongs last

year when trained by Aidan O'Brien, he stamped himself as a major-league

individual when storming home for second in the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) and going

down narrowly in the Champion S. (Eng-G1). Eagle Mountain was purchased

privately and turned over to Mike de Kock, but before he could campaign in

Dubai, he fractured his pelvis and was on the sidelines until early October,

returning with a last-gasp score in the Joel S. (Eng-G3) in course-record time.

Obviously, it is a tall order to win the Turf in just his second start off a

nearly year-long layoff. De Kock is a master at his craft, however, and I have

confidence that he can pull off such a training feat. Nor am I worried about a

regression off the Joel, for in 2007, his former trainer noted that Eagle

Mountain was very much like his sire, Rock of Gibraltar (Ire): both exited their

races well and improved afterward. If Eagle Mountain still has that trait, he is

eligible to run a monster race at Santa Anita, where the conditions will be

ideal for him.

As discussed in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary, I'm pleasantly surprised that

CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani) has popped up here, since his swashbuckling St Leger

(Eng-G1) triumph was originally hailed as his seasonal finale. The Stoute

sophomore began his year in handicap company, but when he simply pulverized the

field with an astonishing rally in a heritage handicap on Epsom Derby Day, it

was apparent that he was no mere handicapper. His first two forays into group

competition were not as scintillating, as he encountered a boatload of trouble

en route to a second-place finish in the King Edward VII S. (Eng-G2) and just

scraped home as the odds-on favorite in the Gordon S. (Eng-G3). That King Edward

VII turned out to be a much finer effort in hindsight. The winner, Campanalogist

(Kingmambo), came back to run well versus several top-tier older horses, and a

few other King Edward alumni performed creditably too, especially eighth-placer

WINCHESTER (Theatrical [Ire]), who annihilated the field in the Secretariat S.

(G1). On the debit side, Conduit has never faced older horses, so the Turf

represents a considerable challenge. And he's cutting back in trip from the

about 1 3/4 miles of the St Leger in what could be cavalierly described as an

afterthought at the end of the year. Those may be substantial obstacles to

overcome, but I love this colt and expect him to do well here.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) deserves to be the morning-line

favorite, for he boasts the best resume in the field. The Aidan O'Brien charge

romped in last year's Irish Derby (Ire-G1) on soft to heavy ground, leaving the

fast-ground-preferred Eagle Mountain well back in third, but also landed the

Prix Niel (Fr-G2) in stakes-record time on good going, and ranked as Ireland's

highweight three-year-old from 11 to 14 furlongs. Soldier of Fortune opened his

four-year-old campaign with a victory in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1), and last

time out, he finished in a dead-heat for third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

(Fr-G1), beaten 2 1/2 lengths by the all-conquering Zarkava. That was an

improvement from the 2007 Arc, where he checked in fifth to Dylan Thomas (Ire).

Despite his formidable record, I still worry that he may be vulnerable here, for

reasons elaborated upon in my Breeders' Cup Turf diary. A resolute galloper, he

has been outpaced at times by horses with greater acceleration, like Youmzain (Sinndar)

twice this year, and like Authorized, Eagle Mountain and a couple of others in

the Epsom Derby. Moreover, he appears to have done better with longer spacing

between races, so the three weeks' interval after the Arc may be a tad short for

him. Even if someone manages to outkick him for top honors at Santa Anita, he is

more than entitled to finish in the top three.

Regular readers may recall that I was bullish about WINCHESTER in advance of

the Secretariat, and gave him my star performer designation in my ensuing diary.

The Dermot Weld pupil could not have looked any better that day, not only in the

course of the 1 1/4-mile race itself, but also during the gallop-out. He

exceeded even my fondest expectations, based upon his encouraging European form.

Winchester broke his maiden at the expense of eventual Irish Oaks (Ire-G1)

heroine Moonstone (Dalakhani) in April, although she surely progressed beyond

all recognition after that race, and he was a rallying second in the Silver S.

next time out. Eighth in the aforementioned King Edward, he then finished

seventh in the Irish Derby, a long way adrift of the winner, Frozen Fire (Montjeu

[Ire]). There were enough clues embedded in those efforts, combined with the

application of blinkers and the cutback to 10 furlongs, to mark him as a primary

threat in the Secretariat. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the Turf, as

much as I'd love to see him do well. He has yet to race since that Secretariat

demolition job, and no horse has won the Turf off that long a break. If anyone

can defy that statistic, it is Weld. But there are other concerns: Winchester

should handle 1 1/2 miles on pedigree, but so far he has not, and he has never

met older horses of this caliber. Even so, I might have blindly stuck with him

in my top three, until Conduit showed up. Not only did Conduit crush him in the

King Edward, but Conduit crushed Frozen Fire in the Leger. Perhaps Winchester

can turn those results upside down in American conditions.

Red Rocks is now technically an American. Last seen defeating Horse of the

Year Curlin (Smart Strike) in the Man o' War S. (G1), he was then transferred to

Mark Hennig, for whom he will be making his debut in the Turf. Like Winchester,

Red Rocks is trying to buck history by winning this race off a layoff. Even more

worrisome, he developed a hock infection that knocked him out of the Sword

Dancer Invitational (G1), and such maladies can be tricky to overcome.

RED ROCK CANYON (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) is the long-suffering

Ballydoyle pacemaker. Perhaps one day he will be given an opportunity to break

his maiden.

Classic

The Aidan O'Brien-trained DUKE OF MARMALADE (Ire) (Danehill) bestrode Europe

like the proverbial colossus this season, reeling off five straight Group 1

scores. Among them were a four-length masterpiece in the 1 1/4-mile Prince of

Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot and an epic, half-length triumph in the 1

1/2-mile King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1). His sequence came to a

screeching halt in the Arc on rain-softened ground, when he never really looked

like himself and checked in seventh. Whether The Duke will take to Pro-Ride is

unknowable in advance, but for whatever it's worth, the distaff side of his

pedigree is loaded with dirt influences, and he comes from the family of A.P.

Indy. The distance is no obstacle, and he travels so well just off the pace that

he promises to get an advantageous trip. Of more immediate concern is his

current form: has his summer brilliance faded in the fall? Is the Breeders' Cup

a bridge too far after all that he's achieved? Given his tremendous attitude,

and the fact that he is made of pretty stern stuff, I will venture that The Duke

will still be in tip-top shape. It would be a battle for the ages if he and

Curlin set sail for home together.

(Update: After this article was first posted, I came across the

following quote from jockey Johnny Murtagh on the Sporting Life website:

"If he [The Duke] hooks up with Curlin at the top of the stretch, I think it

will be a battle royal." Either we are both deluded, or we are onto something.)

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR's promise to become the next Rock of Gibraltar went awry in

his past two starts. A stablemate of The Duke, Henry compiled a four-race

winning streak at the start of the year, comprising the English and Irish Two

Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), St James's Palace (Eng-G1) and Sussex S. (Eng-G1),

all on fast ground. Faced with good-to-soft conditions in the Moulin, he never

threatened the aforementioned Goldikova, and he was again confounded by loose

sod when runner-up to his archrival RAVEN'S PASS (Elusive Quality) in the Queen

Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1). Note that according to the Racing Post, some astute

observers did not think he looked as dead-fit for the QEII, so he may well have

been given an easy time with the Classic in view. Henry has yet to race beyond a

mile, but I think the distance is a lesser issue than the surface. Although

Henry has a trademark burst of speed, the way he was staying on well in those

mile events suggests that he can go longer, and I suspect that he can handle 1

1/4 miles. Aidan O'Brien has always maintained that Henry would have run in the

1 1/2-mile Derby, if the ground hadn't been dicey. Because of his absolute need

for firm going, though, I have no idea if he will feel that he has enough

traction on Pro-Ride. More than The Duke, Henry's female line screams turf. On

Polytrack, that would probably be a plus, but I'm not so sure if that same idea

holds true for the 87 percent-dirt Pro-Ride.

RAVEN'S PASS had been getting progressively closer to Henry in each start

before finally beating him in the QEII. Fourth in the English Guineas from a

problematic draw, he rallied to within three-quarters of a length in the St

James's Palace and missed by a head in the Sussex. For the QEII, besides getting

an assist from the ground, he also helped himself somewhat by racing a bit

closer to the pace. It will be fascinating to see what tactics trainer Gosden

and new jockey Dettori have in mind for the Classic. Will he continue the

forward strategy, despite the fact that Raven will be stretching out to 1 1/4

miles for the first time? Does he revert to more pronounced rating tactics

because of the distance question? It's no clear thing on pedigree whether Raven

will stay, but with his female line shoring up his speedy sire, I think he will.

Indeed, even last year during his juvenile campaign, Gosden averred that he

would ultimately last 10 furlongs. Moreover, Raven will probably enjoy the

surface. He is by Elusive Quality, the sire of Smarty Jones and Maryfield; his

broodmare sire Lord at War (Arg) was a versatile performer at the very highest

level; and while he has plenty of turf influences in his female line, his family

has also produced E Dubai (Mr. Prospector), winner of the Suburban H. (G2) and

Dwyer S. (G2).

Finally, I must mention CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft) because he is

Japanese-based, even though he has run more here than he has at home. If anyone

doubts that he can be ready for this off a single, effortless allowance race,

remember that trainer Kazuo Fujisawa is a genius.