Iowa Derby J

AMERICAN

GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

We expect the speed to rule in Saturday's $250,000 Iowa Derby (G3) at Prairie

Meadows, and while FORESTRY TYPE (Forestry) might force our selection to work a

little bit in the early stages of the 1 1/16-mile test, the feeling is that

CONCORD POINT (Tapit) is the faster of the two and will take some catching.

The four-start sophomore was a sharp second in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial S.

(G3) in his stakes bow last time, and while he hasn't raced beyond seven

furlongs yet, his pedigree suggests the stretch-out should be well within his

scope.

Even if Concord Point fails to outrun Forestry Type to the lead, his tactical

foot would enable him to get first run at that speedster, who faces a major

class test in this heat. Another thing Concord Point has going for him is

trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia, who teamed up to win the Preakness

S. (G1) last month with Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike). Concord Point's lack of

experience on dirt is a concern, but a minor one to us.

WINSLOW HOMER (Unbridled's Song) gamely held off Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil)

in the Holy Bull S. (G3), one of the first significant Kentucky Derby (G1) preps

of the season, in January, but he was sidelined by injury after that and missed

his shot at classic glory. He's been training smartly for trainer Tony Dutrow in

recent weeks, firing a pair of bullets at Delaware Park, but he might be a

little rusty after five months on the shelf and a long trip to suburban Des

Moines. He's another who would benefit from a fast pace.

Previous trips outside Churchill Downs have not worked out for

THISKYHASNOLIMIT (Sky Mesa), who lost by double digits in both the Saratoga

Special S. (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) last fall. On the other hand, he's won

three of five at Churchill, including the Iroquois S. (G3) and Matt Winn S., the

latter on May 15 following a layoff of more than five months. He earned a

career-best 98 BRIS Speed rating for that performance, but regression is a

possibility away from his comfort zone. On the plus side, Matt Winn runner-up

Cool Bullet (Red Bullet) subsequently flattered the performance with a

two-length score in the Rumson S. at Monmouth Park.

VOW TO WAGER (Broken Vow), beaten nearly 11 lengths in the Matt Winn, came

back to run an even third in the Northern Dancer S. (G3), though that race could

have easily passed for a second-level allowance. DOWN WITH DIXIE (Purge), a

first-level allowance scorer at Churchill on May 29, would have to improve

considerably to factor for the win, which is a bit unlikely given he's a veteran

of 11 starts already. Forestry Type has been competing on softer circuits

throughout his career. He held on comfortably to win the Prairie Mile S., the

local prep, by 2 1/4 lengths last out despite racing six-wide early. However,

unless the track comes up sloppy as it did that evening, we don't see him being

effective against this higher grade of Thoroughbred.