Isla Bonita brings four-race win streak into Japanese Derby

Tokyo Racecourse is expected to host upwards of 130,000 fans for Sunday's Grade 1,

¥424,800,000 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), with millions

more tuning in at home for the country's classic.

A jam-packed field of 18

offers bettors many lucrative possibilities, but trends from the last decade are

difficult to ignore. All but two of the last 10 Derby winners have figured in the top four of the

Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas), or in the two spots of another Grade 1 race. All

but one in the last decade have won a major turf race or won or placed in a Grade 1

race as a three-year-old at a distance of 1800 meters or longer prior to their Derby crowning.

That

criteria whittles the field down to three contenders: Isla Bonita, To the World and the lone filly in the lineup, Red Reveur.

Favored Isla Bonita enters this test on a four-race win streak, having most

recently taken the Japanese Two Thousand Guineas on April 20 in his Grade 1

debut. Prior wins for the son of Fuji Kiseki include the February 24 Tokinominoru Kinen and

November 16 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, and he is

unbeaten over this course. His lone defeat came at the hands of eventual Japanese

One Thousand Guineas heroine Harp Star in last year's Niigata Nisai

Stakes.

To the World finished a no-excuses second as the favorite in the Japanese Two

Thousand Guineas, and the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho winner looks well suited on pedigree to excel in his first visit

to Tokyo. He looks to become the first Derby winner for his Derby-winning sire King Kamehameha,

who bested Heart's Cry by 1 1/2 lengths in 2004, and his dam To the Victory

finished second in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks).

Red Reveur will be the first filly to contest the Derby since Vodka prevailed

by three lengths over the boys in 2007, and she will look to become just the fourth female in the race's 82-year history

to reach the winner's circle. On paper, Red Reveur appears to have much against her. She has

never raced beyond 1800 meters or left-handed. The Stay Gold miss is lightly raced, with just four

starts under her belt, but what she has accomplished has been nearly flawless. She strung

together an unbeaten juvenile campaign, culminating in a victory in the Hanshin

Juvenile Fillies over Harp Star, who subsequently handed Red Reveur her only loss, when second

by a quarter-length, in the Japanese One Thousand Guineas. As such, Red Reveur's form is arguably on par with

Harp Star, who trounced Isla Bonita in their only meeting.

While recent history suggests one of these three should

land in the winner's circle, horses have been known to not follow the rule book, and as such

there are a few other interesting contenders.

One and Only will

look to avenge the loss of his sire, Heart's Cry, 10 years ago in addition to providing trainer Kojiro

Hasiguchi, who has saddled 19 horses over 17 years in this race, with his first Derby winner.

The dark bay will be ridden by Norihiro Yokoyama, the rider of Heart's Cry.

One and Only has won just two of eight starts, but his recent record could be better than it

appears on paper. The Koji Maeda silkbearer finished second by a nose to To the World in the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho, turning in

the fastest final three furlongs, and he repeated that feat when fourth in the

Japanese Two Thousand Guineas,

finishing strongly but just failing to hit the board. Therefore, the added distance may be to

his liking, and he looks to become his sire's second classic winner of the season after Nuovo

Record took the Japanese Oaks last weekend.

No major Japanese race would be complete without representation of sire

sensation Deep Impact, who himself won the Derby in

record-tying time in 2005 and is the sire of the last two winners in Kizuna and Deep Brillante. He is represented by three

on Sunday, including longshot Bell Canyon, who

owns two wins a second from three runs at Tokyo.

Bell Canyon finished 1 1/4 lengths in

second behind Isla Bonita in the Tokinominoru Kinen in his February 24 seasonal debut, but

disappointed in his next two outings. He posted a confidence-boosting victory most recently in

the Principal Stakes going 2000 meters at Tokyo on May 10.

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