Justify rated a slight favorite over Bolt d’Oro in Santa Anita Derby

He didn’t make his career debut until mid-February and has never faced stakes competition, but Justify can establish himself as the probable Kentucky Derby favorite by winning Saturday’s $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1). After captivating audiences in runaway maiden and allowance wins, the Bob Baffert-trained colt has been listed as the 4-5 choice on the morning line among seven contestants.

It doesn’t shape up to be an easy task for the well-built son of Scat Daddy. Justify will jump into stakes waters against seasoned professional Bolt d’Oro, a multiple Grade 1-winning juvenile who was placed first via disqualification when returning from a five-month layoff in the March 10 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.

Justify has overwhelmed the competition so far, winning a 7-furlong maiden by 9 ½ lengths and a two-turn entry-level allowance by 6 ½-lengths, and ran fast both times (100-104 BRIS Speed ratings). It’s been 136 years since the last unraced juvenile won the Kentucky Derby, but supporters believe he’ll be the one to end the streak.

Mike Smith retains the mount and considering Justify led wire-to-wire in his debut and registered a 107 E1 Pace rating last time, the chestnut colt likely will be showing the way in a field with no confirmed front-runners.

Bolt d’Oro was installed as the 6-5 second choice and doesn’t need to win the 1 1/8-mile test to prove best at Churchill Downs on May 5. Owner/trainer Mick Ruis hopes to keep moving forward after a solid San Felipe effort in which he came up a head short against the now-sidelined McKinzie and there’s certainly room for improvement in terms of his BRIS Speed ratings, with Bolt d’Oro receiving only a 98 after generating numbers as high as 105 last season.

Javier Castellano will be in to ride the well-regarded son of Medaglia d’Oro.

Instilled Regard doesn’t deserve the billing of the top two, but the Arch colt displayed fine class posting a runner-up effort in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) last December and opened his 3-year-old campaign with a sharp tally in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. He faltered as the favorite when returning to New Orleans with a fourth in the Risen Star (G2), but Instilled Regard remains a rebound candidate for Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer and can reinvigorate his Kentucky Derby prospects with an improved showing. Joel Rosario picks up the mount.

The rest of the cast looks overmatched. Core Beliefs and Pepe Tono have at least tasted victory, but Jimmy Chila and Orbit Rain are still maidens.