Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

MARCH 5, 2009

by James Scully

QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) and THE PAMPLEMOUSSE (Kafwain) looked terrific

on Saturday, recording convincing victories in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and

Sham S. (G3), respectively, and both colts are now in the discussion of serious

Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders. The Derby is eight weeks from this Saturday.

Fountain of Youth -- Quality Road settled off pacesetter This Ones for

Phil (Untuttable) down the backstretch of the Fountain of Youth and asserted

himself leaving the far turn, seizing command while quickly drawing clear of the

competition in upper stretch. He dominated the rest of the way under John

Velazquez and received a whopping 110 BRIS Speed rating for the 4 1/4-length

decision.

The Edward Evans homebred was making only his third start on Saturday. He

opened his career with a sparkling wire-to-wire score over maiden special weight

rivals at Aqueduct last November and reappeared this year with a runner-up

finish to THEREGOESJOJO (Brahms) in a seven-furlong allowance at Gulfstream on

January 10. Quality Road exited that race with a cough, and he was mistakenly

not nominated to the Triple Crown at the first deadline. The Virginia-bred will

be a late nominee.

Following an opening quarter-mile in :23 4/5, the second quarter-mile in the

Fountain of Youth went in :21 3/5. Quality Road was part of the stiff pace,

racing about a length back of the pacesetter through the opening half, and the

bay colt offered a dynamic turn of foot into the stretch, notching a commendable

100 BRIS Late Pace rating while finishing in a very professional manner. It was

easy to come away impressed, but Quality Road still needs to prove himself

around two turns.

His pedigree is favorable. Elusive Quality has already sired a Derby winner

in Smarty Jones,

and Quality Road's dam, Kobla (Strawberry Road [Aus]), is a full sister to 1997

champion three-year-old filly and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) winner Ajina. He

figures to get plenty of endurance from his bloodlines, and his supporters had

to love his willingness to settle off the speed on Saturday. Quality Road was

headstrong in his first two starts, blistering his way to the front as soon as

the gates opened, and the last thing trainer Jimmy Jerkens wants to see on Derby

Day is the colt battling for the early lead.

Quality Road will likely make his two-turn debut in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April

4, and his bandwagon will pick up a lot of steam with another strong

performance.

Theregoesjojo notched a career-best Speed rating (104) for his runner-up

finish, and the Kenny McPeek-trained colt finished four lengths clear of

third-placer BEETHOVEN (Sky Mesa), passing several rivals in the latter

stages to record his second consecutive triple-digit Late Pace number. The

Kentucky-bred colt was making only his second start since July, and the late

runner is eligible to keep improving. Theregoesjojo has never been two turns,

but the fact that he's out of a Seattle Slew mare is encouraging.

Beethoven washed out badly in the paddock and trailed his nine rivals through

the opening three-quarters of a mile. He made up a lot of ground for third, but

the Grade 2 winner still finished more than eight lengths back of the winner.

Nothing has gone smoothly for Beethoven in two South Florida starts, and a

change in scenery might benefit the John Ward pupil.

The bubble burst for several Derby hopefuls. This Ones for Phil,

Notonthesamepage (Catienus) and Taqarub (Aldebaran) are all sprinters at this

point of their career and won't be pursuing the Run for the Roses. Break Water

Edison (Lemon Drop Kid) wound up being eased after coming up empty on the far

turn, and he'll probably get some time off. Capt. Candyman Can (Candy Ride

[Arg]) didn't disgrace in fourth, but he's built for middle-to-shorter distances

and can earn a lot of money elsewhere.

Sham -- The Pamplemousse ran his rivals off their feet, winning by six

lengths under a hand ride from Alex Solis. After comfortably taking the one-mile

San Rafael S. (G3) in January, he easily stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in the

Sham. The Kentucky-bred loves the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, and he's come

a long way fast for trainer Julio Canani.

Based on pedigree, The Pamplemousse looks like a sprinter, but that hasn't

played out on the track so far. After dropping his first two starts sprinting,

he stretched out to two turns to break his maiden, winning a 1 1/16-mile event

at Hollywood Park on December 14, and he's now unbeaten in three straight starts

at a route.

There's still a big difference between nine furlongs and 1 1/4 miles. Three

years ago, Brother Derek tore through his prep races on the West Coast, winning

the San Rafael (G2), Santa Catalina (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) while

earning terrific BRIS Speed ratings of 108 and 105 along the way, but he wound

up dead-heating for fourth on Derby Day. There's still legitimate concern that

The Pamplemousse won't handle the distance at Churchill Downs.

The Bienstock & Winner Stables et al colorbearer will have to deal with some pressure up

front eventually. The Pamplemousse was the lone speed in both the Sham and San

Rafael. In the San Rafael, the only possible pace pressure, Brother Keith (Johar),

blew the first turn, leaving The Pamplemousse all alone. The Sham remarkably

drew no other front runners. Runner-up TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score) tried to

go with him early, but he's a proven stalker who doesn't have the quickness to

run with his rival from the start. The Pamplemousse established very legitimate

splits in the Sham and San Rafael, but he was able to relax while all alone down

the backstretch both times.

I would be remiss leaving out the Pro-Ride factor. There's plenty of

speculation both ways, but nobody knows whether The Pamplemousse will carry his

form to dirt. The way he skims over the Pro-Ride makes me skeptical. I don't

have much faith in the prospect of any three-year-old with no dirt experience

transferring their form under the extreme conditions of the Kentucky Derby.

I also don't know what to make of The Pamplemousse's BRIS Speed ratings. He

looked awesome visually, ripping off fast fractions of :23, :46 2/5 and 1:10 1/5

en route to finishing up in 1:47 4/5, but earned only a 97 Speed number. That

equals a career-best. Whether it's PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker), STARDOM

BOUND (Tapit), CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) or The Pamplemousse, the West

Coast horses are registering disappointing BRIS Speed figures this season.

The Santa Anita Derby on April 4 is setting up to be an exciting contest. If

Pioneerof the Nile wins the March 14 San Felipe S. (G2) as expected, he'll

solidify his status as the top Derby contender out West. Then we'll find out

whether he can run down The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby.

Battaglia -- Saturday's John Battaglia Memorial S., which served as a

prep for the $500,000 Lane's End S. (G2) on March 21, did not attract a strong

field. PROCEED BEE (Bernstein) shipped in to Turfway Park off a fifth in the

Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park, and the Terry Gestes trainee was able to run

down the heavily favored PARADE CLOWN (Distorted Humor) for a 1 1/4-length

score. There was nothing encouraging about his 82 Speed rating.

Upcoming -- We're in the midst of an important stretch that will set

up the final round of Derby prep races. Saturday's Gotham S. (G3) is the lone

event of consequence for males, and IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Empire Maker) will make

his highly anticipated stakes debut. He'll have to get past HAYNESFIELD

(Speightstown), an impressive 6 1/4-length winner of the Whirlaway S. last out

over the inner track.

STARDOM BOUND (Tapit) will receive her final tune-up for her showdown against

males in the Santa Anita Derby when she heads to the starting gate in Saturday's

Santa Anita Oaks (G1). She's following the same Las Virgenes (G1)-Santa Anita

Oaks-Santa Anita Derby route that Winning Colors used to win the Derby in 1988.

The Louisiana Derby (G2), Rebel S. (G2), San Felipe and Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

will take place on March 14.