Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

MARCH 19, 2009

by James Scully

Four key preps were held on Saturday, and FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) made the

biggest splash, romping by 7 1/4 lengths over the sloppy track at Fair Grounds

in the Louisiana Derby (G2). PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) wasn't as

dominant, but he keeps winning out west for Bob Baffert, registering his third

straight victory with a 1 1/4-length decision in the San Felipe (G2). Hot

Springs, Arkansas, turned into upset city as 56-1 WIN WILLY (Monarchos) ran past

OLD FASHIONED (Unbridled's Song) in the stretch of the Rebel S. (G2), and MUSKET

MAN (Yonaguska) garnered his first graded stakes win with a narrow score in the

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

Louisiana Derby -- After breaking from the far outside and traveling a

bit wide into the first turn, Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm's Friesan Fire

settled into a typical tracking position during the early stages of the 1

1/16-mile Louisiana Derby, within a couple of lengths of pacesetter PAPA CLEM

(Smart Strike) down the backstretch. With his natural speed, the bay colt always

puts himself into the race from the start, and when jockey Gabriel Saez pushed

the button approaching the stretch, the Louisiana Derby was quickly over.

Friesan Fire keeps getting better in each start this season for Larry Jones.

No factor in the Futurity S. (G2) and Nashua S. (G3) last fall, the

Kentucky-bred couldn't beat Uno Mas (Macho Uno) when making his Fair Grounds

debut in a December allowance race. He earned his first stakes win in the

one-mile Lecomte S. (G3) on January 10, but many were more impressed with

runner-up PATENA (Seeking the Gold), who checked in a well-beaten eighth on

Saturday while making his first start for new connections (IEAH Stables/Richard

Dutrow). Friesan Fire captured the February 10 Risen Star S. (G3) next time out,

earning his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (100) for the two-length

victory, and he continued to take his game to a higher level in the Louisiana

Derby, garnering a 112 BRIS Late Pace number as well as 103 Speed.

He's easily won his last two starts at 1 1/16 miles, galloping home in the

Louisiana Derby, and I think he will continue to improve at longer distances.

With his pedigree, Friesan Fire looks like a perfect fit for 1 1/4 miles.

Jones, who has finished second in the last two runnings of the Kentucky Derby

(G1), can now train the colt up to the first Saturday in May, and the seven-week

freshening looks like a benefit. Friesan Fire hasn't had a break in the last six

months, similar to Hard Spun two years ago, and Hard Spun finished an

outstanding second to Street Sense off a six-week rest. Friesan Fire will get

seven weeks off, and Jones can give him plenty of time to recover before

tightening the screws in the weeks leading up to the May 2 Derby.

I loved the acceleration he displayed at the top of the stretch on Saturday,

and Friesan Fire will be as tough as nails if he carries that form forward at

Churchill Downs.

After getting away with soft fractions up front (:24, :48 3/5 and 1:13 1/5),

Papa Clem offered no resistance to the oncoming winner, but he dug in gamely

after being passed and repelled the late rally of TERRAIN (Sky Mesa), holding

off that rival by a head on the wire. Considering that he had just broke his

maiden two starts back, it was a solid effort in his first start on a dirt

track. The slop had to be quite a culture-shock for the California-based colt,

and the Gary Stute trainee was spotting a lot of seasoning to both Friesan Fire

and Terrain.

Papa Clem will need to show more in his final Derby prep, but he owns room

for improvement. After winding up on the lead by default Saturday, he'll likely

get the opportunity to sit just off it next time before his offering his best.

Terrain gave a fine account of himself in his three-year-old debut. Second in

the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), the

chestnut gelding was probably a little short off the lengthy layoff, and he was

only runner to make an impact from off the pace in the Louisiana Derby. He's

candidate to move forward in his upcoming starts for Al Stall Jr.

Rebel -- Jer-Mar Stable's Win Willy was content to trail his eight

rivals through the opening three-quarters of Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Rebel. He

circled rivals on the far turn and entered the stretch with a full head of

steam, collaring the heavily favored OLD FASHIONED (Unbridled's Song) at the

mile mark and driving clear to a 2 1/4-length win. It was quite a shocker.

The big question remains class. I thought Old Fashioned ran a good race for

second, finishing eight lengths clear of third, but he was softened up by rapid

early fractions. Win Willy couldn't have been handed a better set-up, and I want

to see him run back to this performance next time. The Mac Robertson-trained

colt ran well in his previous start at Oaklawn Park, winning a six-furlong

allowance/optional claiming event by 1 1/2 lengths, but his Rebel came from out

of nowhere. The Canterbury Park maiden winner had never been two turns before.

Now three-for-three on dirt, Win Willy earned a strong 104 BRIS Speed rating

for the Rebel, and his connections reportedly turned down a $3 million offer for

him. The $25,000 yearling purchase has the breeding to get 10 furlongs, but he

still needs to prove that he's good enough.

Old Fashioned is out of Meadowlake mare and looked vulnerable at longer

distances on Saturday, but it's premature to give up on him in mid-March. He

didn't enjoy a favorable trip in the Rebel, chasing SILVER CITY (Unbridled's

Song) through ridiculous early fractions of :22 2/5 and :46, and jockey Ramon

Dominguez went after the pacesetter early, asking Old Fashioned for run midway

on the far turn. The previously unbeaten colt understandably tired through the

stretch, but he gained valuable fitness and should be much tighter next time

around.

As opposed to stablemate Friesan Fire, who has been in serious training since

the fall, Old Fashioned received a lengthy break following the Remsen S. (G2) in

November and is gradually working himself into top shape. He wasn't at his best

in the Rebel, and Silver City looks like more of a sprinter/miler type who Old

Fashioned can hopefully avoid in his upcoming starts. I look for Old Fashioned

to run big on the front end in his final Derby prep. Whether he can handle 10

furlongs on Derby Day is a different question.

He doesn't have a favorable pedigree for the distance, but horses outrun

their breeding and speed is always dangerous. It's impossible to predict how

much speed will be in the 20-horse Derby field at this time of year, and

sometimes an expected fast pace doesn't materialize. Old Fashioned's best chance

in the Derby will be wire to wire.

San Felipe -- Not sure what we learned with Pioneerof the Nile's

victory in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. Considering the questionable competition,

his connections were looking for a nice, easy race in preparation for the Santa

Anita Derby (G1) on April 4, but the Zayat Stables' homebred wound up having to

work in the stretch to get the job done. Pioneerof the Nile still proved best,

and he remains an exciting prospect for the Kentucky Derby because all he does

is win for Bob Baffert, a three-time Derby winner.

Pioneerof the Nile looked most effective when offering his run from off the

pace in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) on February 7, and jockey Garrett Gomez was

looking for a similar trip in the San Felipe. But a slow pace forced his hand as

Pioneerof the Nile took off after the lead early on the backstretch, forcing the

rider to fight him for a while. Gomez finally got Pioneerof the Nile to settle a

little bit, but the colt moved to the front turning for home and was in a

sustained drive all the way to the wire.

The dark bay looks capable of much better in the Santa Anita Derby and

figures to appreciate the added sixteenth of a mile. However, Pioneerof the Nile

will need to improve his BRIS Speed ratings going forward. He's never recorded a

triple-digit rating, receiving a dismal 92 for the San Felipe.

Tampa Bay Derby -- Eric Fein and Vic Carlson's Musket Man lost

positioning in traffic entering the far turn of the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby,

but the Derek Ryan-trained colt altered course to the outside and rallied boldly

into the stretch, eventually catching pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) in

the final strides for a neck decision. The Kentucky-bred returned to the

winner's circle after suffering his first career setback with a third in the

February 14 Sam F. Davis S. (G3).

Musket Man earned only a 93 BRIS Speed rating, and his best career effort

came in the seven-furlong Pasco S. when he notched a 101 figure. Runner-up Join

in the Dance, a 35-1 outsider, looked like a confirmed sprinter entering the

race, making his first six starts at 6 1/2 furlongs or less, and I doubt either one of the top two finishers wants to go much farther than Saturday's

distance. It was a strange race.

GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) and SUMO (Fusaichi Pegasus), the one-two

finishers at long odds in the Sam Davis, were never a factor in the Tampa Bay

Derby, checking in fifth and ninth, respectively. More surprising were the

performances of South Florida shippers HELLO BROADWAY (Broken Vow), WARRIOR'S

REWARD (Medaglia d'Oro) and NOWHERE TO HIDE (Vindication). The latter at least

managed a fourth, but none of them were in serious contention throughout the

race.

The Tampa Bay Derby doesn't appear likely to have any impact upon this year's

Kentucky Derby.

Upcoming -- Saturday's Lane's End S. (G2) is the lone graded event for

three-year-olds this weekend, and Holy Bull S. (G3) third-placer WEST SIDE

BERNIE (Bernstein) will be the one to beat over Turfway Park's Polytrack. The

Kelly Breen runner captured the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3) over the same oval

last September.