Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 4, 2010

by James Scully

After winning the Holy Bull S. (G3) a week earlier, WINSLOW HOMER

(Unbridled's Song) was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his cannon bone and

taken off the Derby Trail on Tuesday. If he makes a

full recovery, the gray colt is expected back this summer.

It's gut-wrenching when an exciting Kentucky Derby (G1) prospect is

sidelined, and Winslow Homer looked like a potential force following his stakes

debut in the Holy Bull, but his health woes didn't come as a shock. He's a

lightly-raced colt by the superb sire Unbridled's Song, who dealt with soundness

issues during his three-year-old campaign. Winslow Homer isn't the first

offspring of the 17-year-old stallion to face similar hurdles.

After winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his third career start, Unbridled's Song

entered 1996 as the Derby favorite. He opened his

sophomore season with a pair of runner-up finishes as the odds-on favorite in

the Hutcheson S. (G2) and Fountain of Youth S. (G2), and then flashed his immense

talent in the Florida Derby (G1), romping by 5 3/4 lengths. That performance

stamped him as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs, but something wasn't right

with one of his feet. With a bar shoe applied to the bad wheel, Unbridled's Song still

managed to lead the Derby field by two lengths at the top of the stretch, but

the favorite faltered in the final furlong to fifth behind Grindstone.

Unbridled's Song is too good not to be represented by a Derby winner

eventually, but he's lost his top contender this year in Winslow Homer. Grade

3-placed Mission Impazible, who returned from an eight-month freshening to

finish second in a six-furlong allowance on January 9, is probably his best hope

left in 2010. This happened last year with Midshipman, who looked the part when

capturing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but wound up sidelined until

September. Other setbacks include Buddha, who was knocked out on

Derby week in 2002 after opening the year with three straight victories. The Wood Memorial

S. (G1) winner never raced again.

Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor and Eurosilver were all top-class juvenile

performers by Unbridled's Song who didn't stay sound throughout their Derby

season.

The ill-fated Eight Belles, runner-up in the 2008 edition, is his best Derby

runner so far. Dunkirk looked talented enough in 2009, but trainer Todd

Pletcher couldn't get him to the races at two (career debut on

January 24) and his inexperience showed in the mud on Derby Day. The promising

colt was retired following a second in the Belmont S. (G1).

Among present-day sires, Unbridled's Song is unsurpassed in terms of

producing talented Derby prospects, but his offspring don't always get the chance to show

it.

Drossel

With no stakes action to review from last week,

DROSSELMEYER's (Distorted Humor) victory over allowance/optional claiming

rivals on Sunday stands out. The Bill Mott-trained colt dropped his first three

career starts on synthetics/turf last year, but he finally found his groove when

trying dirt at Churchill Downs in mid-November, registering a six-length maiden

special weight victory that was good for a 99 BRIS Speed rating. He netted a 105

Speed number for his 1 3/4-length decision at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.

The chestnut rated comfortably off a fast early pace (:22 4/5 and :46 4/5) in

the 1 1/8-mile event, bided his time along the rail in tight quarters through

the far turn, and accelerated nicely after being guided to the outside at the

top of the stretch, collaring the leaders and drawing clear beneath Kent

Desormeaux. It was a strong performance time-wise, with Drosselmeyer receiving a

101 BRIS Late Pace rating after running his final eighth in :12 4/5, and he

established himself as another top prospect for WinStar Farm.

WinStar's deep roster already includes Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) winner

SUPER

SAVER (Maria's Mon), Delta Jackpot S. (G3) victor

RULE

(Roman Ruler) and Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) scorer

AMERICAN LION (Tiznow), and Drosselmeyer, while still unproven against

stakes rivals, has the highest Speed rating of the bunch. He looks like a

stakes-quality colt, an improving type who may have shown more earlier if not

stuck in synthetic/turf races, and his Hall of Fame trainer has become much more

focused upon winning the Derby in recent years.

Dirt experience

Champion two-year-old filly She Be Wild (Offlee Wild) wasn't viewed as a Derby

contender prior to Sunday's Forward Gal S. (G2), but her fifth-place effort shows

the pitfalls of assuming that every top-class synthetic horse will run well on

dirt. Her subpar performance may prove irrelevant in future Grade 1 dirt races -- Colonel John won the Travers (G1) after

disappointing in the Derby -- but it's an example worth noting.

Champion

LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is a serious racehorse who is bred to handle

a dirt track, but there's no guarantee he'll make a seamless transition,

especially if his connections decide to experiment in front of 150,000 people

against 19 rivals. It isn't the same as shipping in from California for the Wood

Memorial or Arkansas Derby (G1). Lookin at Lucky can get a feel for dirt in the

mornings at Churchill Downs, but he'll face different circumstances during the

afternoon. Trainer Bob Baffert talked

openly about getting him a dirt prep race following his win in the CashCall

Futurity (G1), and that's sound strategy for all the synthetic-based contenders

in California.

Upcoming

AMERICAN LION will make his highly-anticipated three-year-old bow in

Saturday's Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) at Santa Anita, and the Eoin Harty-trained colt

will face six rivals in the 1 1/16-mile test. Baffert will send out two of the

challengers, including TIZ CHROME (Tiznow). The unbeaten colt broke his maiden

at Churchill Downs and concluded his juvenile campaign with an easy four-length

win in the Stuka S. at Hollywood Park.

Saturday's Whirlaway S. at Aqueduct marks the stakes bow for

EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Forest Camp), who created quite a stir when breaking his

maiden by a 17 1/4-length margin in early January.