Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 25, 2011

by James Scully

The Risen Star (G2) was a major prep for the Kentucky Derby (G1) last

weekend, but the biggest storyline came from the San Vicente (G2), which

featured up-and-coming sensation THE FACTOR (War Front).

"Freakishly fast" is a common description for the Bob Baffert trainee, and

his next probable start, the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 27, represents a litmus

test for the exciting colt. The Factor is slated to make his two-turn debut in

the 1 1/8-mile event, and if he wins impressively, the gray colt will greatly

enhance his status for the Kentucky Derby. But that's a big if.

We'll recap the San Vicente, Risen Star and Southwest S. (G3), and preview

this Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

The Derby is 10 weeks from Saturday.

San Vicente

The Factor carried his speed seven furlongs on Sunday, running the second

quarter-mile of the San Vicente in a blistering :21 1/5 before holding off the

fast-closing SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) by three-quarters of a length. The

runner-up, who ran well off a six-month layoff, was getting to the winner in

deep stretch, but it wasn't surprising to see The Factor get a little tired late

in his stakes debut.

Let's take a look at his history. The Factor made his career bow as the

odds-on favorite at Hollywood Park on November 28, but didn't make the early

lead and finished fourth. In his second outing, on the December 26 opening-day

program at Santa Anita, The Factor shot right to the front at the start and

spectacularly ran off from the competition, extending a three-length advantage

at the top of the stretch to 8 1/4 on the wire. He went in :21 3/5, :44, :55 2/5

and 1:06 4/5, breaking the six-furlong dirt track record at Santa Anita.

The Factor worked five furlongs in :58 on January 9, but exited the drill

with a foot issue. He needed 30 days before posting another move and entered the

San Vicente with only two recent workouts to his credit.

"I knew he was going to be short," Baffert said of the abbreviated work

schedule. "You can only get away with this with a horse of this caliber."

That's a common theme with The Factor -- he's a horse blessed with so much

raw ability.

"It's hard to get a horse like this," Baffert explained, "They don't come

around very often."

The Factor, who has earned BRIS Speed ratings of 104 and 106 in his two wins,

will likely benefit off the San Vicente experience, but brilliant sprinters

don't often win the Kentucky Derby. Two turns is the next challenge, and his

pedigree won't preclude him from being successful.

He's from the first crop of the Danzig stallion War Front, who is throwing

good runners on dirt, turf and synthetic, and War Front is represented by

a Kentucky Derby prospect in Soldat, who will enter Saturday's Fountain of Youth

off a 10 3/4-length allowance victory at 1 1/8 miles. The Factor is out the

Miswaki mare Greyciousness, who won at distances up to 1 1/16 miles, and Miswaki

(Mr. Prospector) rates as an outstanding broodmare sire:

he's been represented in the same capacity by world-class routers like Sea the

Stars, Galileo (Ire), Daylami (Ire) and Hernando (Fr).

The Factor has stamina influences in his pedigree; it comes down to

whether he can harness his speed or is strictly built for shorter distances.

It's easy to doubt his chances going long -- he is a speed machine -- but we

won't know for sure until he tries it. And The Factor has the right trainer in

three-time Derby winner Baffert, who is hoping The Factor can emulate Smarty

Jones, another very speedy colt whose talent carried him to victory in the 2004

Derby and Preakness (G1).

The Factor will need to show that he can rate on the lead in the Sunland

Derby.

Sway Away was making his first start since a close second to J P's Gusto

(Successful Appeal) in the August 8 Best Pal S. (G2) at Del Mar and was outrun

early in the six-horse San Vicente. After being fanned wide into the stretch, he

rallied furiously in the final furlongs to reduce a sizeable deficit. The bay colt has recorded BRIS Late Pace

figures of 107 (San Vicente), 106 and 102 in three sprint starts, and trainer

Jeff Bonde is excited about the prospect of stretching out in distance; the late

runner is by Belmont S. (G1) and Preakness hero Afleet Alex and is out of a

Seattle Slew mare. Sway Away is a candidate to move forward off the San Vicente,

and he may train straight up to the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 9.

PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) sustained his first career defeat when

third in the San Vicente, but he didn't run poorly in his first appearance since

winning the Hollywood Prevue (G3) on November 20. After dominating three starts

on the front end last year, the Myung Kwon Cho colt found himself nearly a

couple of lengths off the early pace Sunday and battled gamely throughout the

stretch run. Premier Pegasus is bred to appreciate further distances and may

continue to show more in his two-turn debut next time.

Risen Star

MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) opened his three-year-old season with a subpar

fourth in the January 30 Holy Bull (G3), but he rebounded with a comfortable 1

1/2-length decision in Saturday's Risen Star at Fair Grounds, netting his first

stakes victory and $180,000 in graded earnings. The bay colt stalked in second

behind slow opening fractions of :24 3/5 and :49 1/5, and stuck his head in

front while between horses approaching the conclusion of the far turn.

SANTIVA (Giant's Causeway) loomed a serious win threat on the far outside

turning for home, battling briefly with Mucho Macho Man, but began to weaken

slightly in midstretch. He held second by 1 1/4 lengths over 2-1 favorite ROGUE

ROMANCE (Smarty Jones), who closed late for third.

The top three finishers displayed commendable form at two and are

well situated for the Kentucky Derby from a graded-earnings perspective.

Fourth-placer MACHEN (Distorted Humor) was one-paced late in his stakes debut

Saturday. The lightly-raced colt (career debut on January 2) gained valuable

seasoning and remains a nice prospect down the road, but the Risen Star rates as

a disappointment.

Mucho Macho Man concluded his juvenile campaign with a pair of

non-threatening seconds behind To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) in the Remsen

(G2) and Nashua (G2), and he flattered his well-regarded rival on Saturday.

Trained by Kathy Ritvo, Mucho Macho Man was bumped early in the one-mile Holy

Bull and wound up contesting the early pace before tiring late. He was under a

snug hold entering the backstretch of the Risen Star due to the slow splits, but

he did settle much better this time beneath Rajiv Maragh. His connections are

probably looking forward to seeing him rate a little further back, with the

expectation of more legitimate fractions, in his upcoming starts.

Mucho Macho Man received only a 97 BRIS Speed rating Saturday, but the pace

was slow and he finished strongly, garnering a 107 Late Pace rating. And he

registered a 101 Speed rating in the nine-furlong Remsen. Mucho Macho Man

greatly improved his Derby stock in the Risen Star, and he'll rate as a top

contender with another strong showing in his final Derby prep, which will come

in either the March 26 Louisiana Derby (G2) or the Florida Derby (G1) eight days

later.

Santiva was making his first start since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club S.

(G2) at Churchill Downs. The smallish colt didn't run fast last year

(career-best 92 BRIS Speed rating at two) and still has much to prove for Eddie

Kenneally, but he gave a fine account of himself Saturday.

Rogue Romance ran in spots during his 2011 opener, making an early move on

the far turn before dropping back in the field at the top of the stretch, but it

was encouraging to see him finish up well late. The one-run closer owns a big

kick -- his 2 1/2-length victory in the grassy Bourbon S. (G3) last fall was

visually impressive and he overcame a rough trip to rally for third in the

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) -- and trainer Kenny McPeek could care less about

winning these preps; he wants to keep moving forward before firing the cannon on

Derby Day. Rogue Romance benefited from the tightener, and he's the type who

will always have at least a puncher's chance due to his run style.

Southwest

ARCHARCHARCH (Arch) got the jump on J P's Gusto in Monday's Southwest at

Oaklawn Park, carrying his momentum off the far turn to a clear lead at the top

of the short stretch run, and held on to win by a diminishing length over the

6-5 favorite.

The Southwest was a major improvement from his well-beaten fourth in the

January 17 Smarty Jones S., and Archarcharch reportedly exited that race with a

hock issue that quickly cleared up for trainer Jinks Fires. The dark bay colt had

just broken his maiden two starts previously in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair

Grounds, so there is room for further improvement, but Archarcharch registered

only a 93 BRIS Speed rating. He'll need to run much faster against stiffer

competition in the March 19 Rebel S. (G2).

J P's Gusto rated effectively in fifth and was the best horse

Monday as he ran out of ground late, but he still has serious distance concerns

going forward. He still rates as a legitimate win candidate for the Rebel at 1

1/16 miles.

Third-placer ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex) was heavily supported in his stakes

debut and moved into a threatening position turning for home, but the maiden

winner lacked the needed rally after going wide and will need to improve significantly in his

upcoming starts to garner enough graded earnings for the Derby.

Preview

Saturday's Fountain of Youth drew a field of eight, with To Honor and Serve

listed as the 8-5 favorite on the morning line. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott

has never been a prominent player on the Derby scene, and To Honor and Serve is

his best prospect yet. The colt has registered century-topping BRIS Speed

ratings in his last three starts, breaking his maiden by 8 3/4 lengths prior to

easy wins in the Nashua and Remsen, and the latter two victories came in

wire-to-wire style. To Honor and Serve could wind up on the early lead Saturday

with John Velazquez, and we have to respect his chances.

Soldat recorded a 108 BRIS Speed rating for his aforementioned allowance

victory at Gulfstream Park, but it came on a wet track. That's the only

potential drawback with the former turf runner because Soldat clearly has plenty

of talent. I won't be surprised to see him challenge for the win over an

expected fast track Saturday, and the Kiaran McLaughlin charge will be

forwardly placed during the early stages with Alan Garcia.

Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) winner GOURMET DINNER (Trippi) doesn't need to worry about

graded earnings, but he faces a class and distance check in the Fountain of

Youth. Third in the Holy Bull last out, he doesn't offer much betting appeal in

this corner.

BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY (Giant's Causeway) is a good-looking prospect from the

Patrick Biancone stable, but he's facing a massive class hike from a maiden

special weight victory on February 11.

SHACKLEFORD (Forestry) will make his stakes debut in good form for Dale

Romans. A Churchill Downs maiden winner two back, he exits a 2 1/4-length

allowance tally going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream on February 5. The chestnut owns

plenty of tactical speed, but figures to closely stalk the front runners from

post 8 with Jesus Castanon. He's one to use in the exotics.

CASPER'S TOUCH (Touch Gold) finished second to Shackleford following a

troubled trip in his 2011 bow, and I'm going to support him for a minor upset

Saturday. I loved his maiden win two starts back at Churchill Downs and thought

the colt was severely compromised by a slow pace last time, as he was rank and

hard to handle while being heavily restrained in the opening stages. It got even

worse when he was knocked off stride by another rival in upper stretch, but

Casper's Touch managed to re-rally in the final stages for second. He's capable

of a much better trip on Saturday, with nearly every member of the field wanting

to be on or within a couple of lengths of the early lead, and Casper's Touch

will look to mow them down in the stretch under new rider Alex Solis.

Gulfstream will also offer a 1 1/8-mile allowance race of note on the

Fountain of Youth undercard that could produce a starter or two for the Florida

Derby. ARCH TRAVELER (Sky Mesa) will stretch out following a smart 2 1/2-length

maiden score at seven furlongs on February 6 and the James Jerkens pupil is

listed as the 2-1 favorite on the morning line. COOL BLUE RED HOT (Harlan's

Holiday), an easy 3 1/4-length maiden winner at 1-9 odds two starts back at

Calder for Angel Penna Jr., will make his second appearance over the track after

finishing second to Soldat last time. NACHO BUSINESS (Rahy) is a promising debut

winner from the Kelly Breen barn. The dark bay colt earned a solid Speed rating

(96) when capturing a one-mile maiden special weight on January 30, defeating

Fountain of Youth entrant Bowman's Causeway, and he's

recorded three consecutive bullet works in advance of his first start against

winners. Kenny McPeek will send out a pair of stakes-experienced sophomores

in PRIVATE PRIZE (Pure Prize) and WASHINGTON'S RULES (Roman Ruler). HOTHERSAL

(Smart Strike), who rolled to an easy maiden over the turf at Gulfstream, tries

the main track for Seth Benzel.