Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2013

by James Scully

The first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager took place last weekend and

the lowest individual-priced horse, Verrazano (11-1), was bet primarily on

confidence given that the lightly-raced colt has yet to try two turns or face

stakes rivals. The next three in the betting -- Flashback (12-1), Violence

(13-1) and Itsmyluckyday (13-1) -- are graded stakes winners.

The "Prep Season" portion of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" new scoring

system concludes this weekend, with Saturday's El Camino Real Derby at Golden

Gate Fields and Monday's Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park both offering 10-4-2-1

points to the respective top four finishers.

Next comes the first leg of the "Championship Series," which features eight

races offering a 50-20-10-5 point scale: the Fountain of Youth (2/23), Risen

Star (2/23), Gotham (3/2), Tampa Bay Derby (3/9), San Felipe (3/9), Rebel

(3/16), Spiral (3/23) and Sunland Derby (3/24).

With no point races last week, this is a good opportunity to look at some

trends for the Kentucky Derby:

Mr. P influence

Look no further than the direct sire line for the most significant breeding

influence during this era, Mr. Prospector. A son of Raise a Native, Mr.

Prospector is directly responsible for 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi

Pegasus and his descendants have accounted for another nine wins in the last 18

years.

That's more than 50 percent since 1995 for the late, great sire.

Contrast those numbers with Seattle Slew. He threw 1984 Derby winner Swale,

but Seattle Slew is not found in the direct sire line of the last 20 Derby

winners. His notable descendants include A.P. Indy, Pulpit, Tapit and

Bernardini.

Awesome Again, Giant's Causeway and Tiznow are three prominent names that are

still looking for their first Derby success at stud (as a sire or through one of

their sons). Nobody questions their ability to throw top-class performers at

classic distances and all three ran big at Churchill Downs, with Awesome Again

and Tiznow both winning the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic under the Twin

Spires and Giant's Causeway finishing a neck second in the 2000 edition, but the

Derby remains an elusive prize on their resumes.

Awesome Again and Giant's Causeway are descendants of Northern Dancer, which

is the most successful direct sire line outside of Mr. Prospector in the last 20

years, accounting for three Derby wins.

So how does that apply to this year's Kentucky Derby contenders? Let's break

down the individual 23 horses from Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wage by

sire category:

Mr. Prospector descendants:

Capo Bastone (by Street Boss)

Code West (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Mylute (by Midnight Lute)

Will Take Charge (by Unbridled's Song)

Northern Dancer:

Delhomme (by Dixie Union)

Den's Legacy (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Frac Daddy (by Scat Daddy)

Goldencents (by Into Mischief)

Itsmyluckyday (by Lawyer Ron)

Overanalyze (by Dixie Union)

Oxbow (by Awesome Again)

Shanghai Bobby (by Harlan's Holiday)

Uncaptured (by Lion Heart)

Violence (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Vyjack (by Into Mischief)

Seattle Slew:

Dynamic Sky (by Sky Mesa)

Flashback (by Tapit)

He's Had Enough (by Tapit)

Normandy Invasion (by Tapit)

Super Ninety Nine (by Pulpit)

Others:

Revolutionary (by War Pass)

Verrazano (by More Than Ready)

Only four of the 23 individual horses in Pool 1 hail from the direct sire

line of Mr. Prospector and substantial odds were available on each one, with

Capo Bastone closing at 58-1, Code West at 56-1, Mylute at 123-1 and Will Take

Charge at 61-1.

Curly Top, Fortify and Palace Malice are three other promising prospects from

the Mr. Prospector line that were included as part of the mutuel field in Pool

1.

BRIS Speed ratings

A triple-digit BRIS Speed rating from the final two prep races used to be

given for a Kentucky Derby winner. From 1984 to 2008, every Derby winner reached

the century level at least once and 10 of the 15 received a triple-digit number

in their final two starts. But times have changed recently.

I'll Have Another returned some semblance last year by netting a 102 Speed

rating in his penultimate prep, the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, but his three

immediate predecessors -- Animal Kingdom, Super Saver and Mine That Bird -- all

failed to reach the threshold.

Here are the last two BRIS Speed Ratings earned by Derby winners since 1994:

Derby winner		# last race		two back
I'll Have Another		98		102
Animal Kingdom		97		96
Super Saver		99		99
Mine That Bird		88		87
Big Brown		110		102
Street Sense		98		105
Barbaro		104		104
Giacomo		100		96
Smarty Jones		105		109
Funny Cide		111		103
War Emblem		109		105
Monarchos		108		108
Fusaichi Pegasus		110		103
Charismatic		104		94
Real Quiet		107		103
Silver Charm		102		98
Grindstone		101		102
Thunder Gulch		98		103
Go for Gin		104		105

Big Brown laid over his rivals with a 110 BRIS Speed rating from his Florida

Derby score in 2008 and it's a shame that the leading performers in 2010 and

2011 (from a Speed figure perspective) Eskendreya and I Want Revenge, were both

sidelined by an injury before the Kentucky Derby.

It's still early, with several top prospects awaiting their first start of

the year, so we will revisit this category after the final round of prep races.

But here are the leading BRIS numbers earned so far this year by the individual

horses listed in Pool 1:

Horse		Speed rating
Itsmyluckyday		106, 111 (two back)
Shanghai Bobby		105
Verrazano		104
Super Ninety Nine		103
Code West		99
Revolutionary		96
Flashback		95
Oxbow		94

Recent performance

The final round of prep races carry the most weight in the new points system,

but only eight of the last 20 Derby winners captured their last start. The same

number finished second and four recorded a fourth in their final prep race.

Here is the breakdown of how Derby winners fared in their last two starts:

Derby winner		last race		two back
I'll Have Another		1st		1st
Animal Kingdom		1st		2nd
Super Saver		2nd		3rd
Mine That Bird		4th		2nd
Big Brown		1st		1st
Street Sense		2nd		1st
Barbaro		1st		1st
Giacomo		4th		2nd
Smarty Jones		1st		1st
Funny Cide		2nd		3rd
War Emblem		1st		1st
Monarchos		2nd		1st
Fusaichi Pegasus		1st		1st
Charismatic		1st		4th
Real Quiet		2nd		2nd
Silver Charm		2nd		2nd
Grindstone		2nd		1st
Thunder Gulch		4th		1st
Go for Gin		2nd		4th
Sea Hero		4th		3rd

Region

From the last 20 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, 10 winners were based in

Florida over the winter, but only two -- Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006) --

made their final prep in the Sunshine State (Florida Derby).

Seven Derby winners were based in California during the same time frame, but

only four -- I'll Have Another (2012), Giacomo (2005), Real Quiet (1998) and

Silver Charm (1997) -- remained on the West Coast for their last start.

Kentucky leads the way with five of the last 20 Derby winners prepping at

either Keeneland or Turfway Park, but three of those -- Charismatic (1999),

Thunder Gulch (1995) and Sea Hero (1993) -- competed over the old dirt track at

Keeneland. Animal Kingdom (2012) and Street Sense (2007) both raced on

Polytrack, with the former taking the Spiral at Turfway and the latter finishing

second in

the Blue Grass.

New York is tied with California, with four Derby winners prepping in the

Empire State, and Arkansas comes next with three. Illinois and New Mexico are

responsible for one apiece.

The best region can vary from year to year, but identifying it holds real

handicapping value. Last year, the California colony proved to be extremely

deep, with I'll Have Another defeating the well-regarded Creative Cause in the

Santa Anita Derby after that rival had toppled Bodemeister in the San Felipe.

Bodemeister came back to win his next start, the Arkansas Derby, by 9 1/2

lengths.

Top 10

1. Normandy Invasion -- Impressive Remsen runner-up is set to return

   in February 23 Risen Star for Chad Brown

2. Violence -- Unbeaten Todd Pletcher colt exits a strong win in

   CashCall Futurity and is readying for February 23 Fountain of Youth

3. Revolutionary -- Possesses plenty of talent but maturity issues

   are a concern; likely headed to either March 30 Louisiana Derby or April 6

   Wood Memorial for Pletcher

4. Itsmyluckyday -- He's the fastest Derby contender so far this

   year; will train up to the March 30 Florida Derby for Eddie Plesa

5. Verrazano -- Pletcher will send brilliant Gulfstream allowance

   winner to the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby

6. Flashback -- Unbeaten colt short work of Lewis foes; Bob Baffert

   trainee will receive first legitimate test in March 9 San Felipe

7. Oxbow -- D. Wayne Lukas colt dominated Lecomte and will attempt

   to back it up in the Risen Star

8. Overanalyze -- No factor vs. stakes rivals at Churchill but

   rebounded with sharp Remsen score (104 BRIS Speed); Pletcher will send him

   to March 2 Gotham

9. Shanghai Bobby -- Performed admirably when sustaining first loss

   in Holy Bull and Florida Derby is next; Pletcher runner brings serious speed

   to the equation

10. Goldencents -- Sham and Delta Jackpot hero is headed to San

    Felipe for Doug O'Neill