Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

APRIL 4, 2013

by James Scully

Orb and Revolutionary were the big winners last weekend, taking

the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, respectively, but neither was overly

impressive: Orb completed the 1 1/8-mile distance two seconds slower than the

filly Dreaming of Julia earlier on the program and Revolutionary got away

tardily and didn't have his mind on business the entire way.

Despite earning only a 97 BRIS Speed rating, compared to a 105 for

Revolutionary, Orb is the better Kentucky Derby prospect in my estimation. He

rated behind a glacial pace while wide in the Florida Derby and the developing

colt proved himself from a speed-figure perspective when registering a 102 in a

fast-paced Fountain of Youth two back. Orb will adapt to any scenario up front

and I expect him to continue to show more at Churchill Downs.

Revolutionary is good enough to be a major factor if he puts it all together

next time, but that's difficult to envision. He ran in spots Saturday, shutting

it down quickly upon reaching the finish line and continued to display an

unwillingness to break that is most disturbing, especially considering the fact

that Revolutionary raced close to the pace a couple of times last year. His

unprofessional behavior does not bode well for a 20-horse field in the Kentucky

Derby.

The "Road

to the Kentucky" scoring system continues with a pair of major prep races

this Saturday, the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby, both offering

100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers, and we'll find out how this

year's "buzz" horse, unbeaten Verrazano, handles his first trip

at 1 1/8 miles. He will be a strong Kentucky Derby favorite if he rolls at

Aqueduct.

Florida Derby

I didn't understand why Shanghai Bobby took back from the rail post on

a track that favors inside speed. The opening fractions -- :24.74, :48.56,

1:12.89 and 1:37.79 -- were ridiculously soft, with the half-mile and

three-quarters splits being accomplished about two seconds slower than both the

Gulfstream Oaks and the 1 3/16-mile Skip Away on the same program, and it was an

ideal set-up for a speedy colt with perceived distance limitations on the

stretch-out.

Instead, Shanghai Bobby dropped back to race close to Orb, who was done no

favors as well by the walking pace, and Itsmyluckyday was in the best spot among

the three main contenders, up close tracking the action as they crawled down the

backstretch.

Itsmyluckyday got first run as expected, surging to a one-length lead in

upper stretch, and it was a carbon copy of the move he offered in the Holy Bull,

overhauling the pacesetting Shanghai Bobby en route to a two-length decision.

But this time he had Orb coming after him.

Orb raced in fifth during the early stages and was caught four wide on the

far turn before accelerating to win going away by 2 3/4 lengths, generating a

103 BRIS Late Pace rating. This isn't the same colt who received an 89 Speed

rating when opening his sophomore season with a sluggish victory over optional

claiming rivals in late January.

Shug McGaughey is the antithesis of a Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher or D. Wayne

Lukas; he would love to win a Triple Crown race but could care less about

competing in the Kentucky Derby. His stable isn't geared toward those events and

the Hall of Fame trainer was in no rush to push along Orb, who was only a maiden

winner entering this year.

Bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, the son of Malibu Moon has evolved

into a top three-year-old over his last three starts, demonstrating an excellent

turn of foot that is built for longer distances. He is on my short list of win

contenders -- it simply will be a matter of whether he's good enough on Derby

Day.

Itsmyluckyday came up short after not racing in more than two months but

gained fitness for his next start in the Kentucky Derby. He earned a lower Speed

rating Saturday due to the slow pace, but I wouldn't give up on him based upon

the setback. My biggest concern is his effectiveness at 1 1/4 miles.

Louisiana Derby

Revolutionary notched his third straight win, but the last two have been

anything but pretty. The Louisiana Derby set up well for a late runner, with

wicked opening splits in :22.84 and :46.34 (no one could've envisioned a much

faster pace at Fair Grounds than in the Florida Derby), and after starting last

and racing at the back of the 14-horse field, Revolutionary circled rivals five

wide on the far turn. It looked like he might win for fun entering the stretch,

but the dark bay colt began idling when he struck the front.

Jockey Javier Castellano got his mount's attention when Mylute rallied

alongside in deep stretch, as Revolutionary surged again to win by a neck, but

it shouldn't have been that close. After behaving poorly in his previous start,

a narrow win over suspect rivals in the February 2 Withers, Revolutionary

continued to lack focus on Saturday. The big difference was that Castellano

utilized the overland route instead of trying to keep him inside, which the

Pletcher-trained colt greatly resented last time.

There will be no saving ground in the Kentucky Derby; Revolutionary will

travel as wide as necessary while attempting to go last to first.

Even though he has performed like a plodder this year, Revolutionary

possesses an ideal mix of speed and stamina in his bloodlines. He is by the

ill-fated sire War Pass, who was ultra-quick and passed plenty of early zip to

his only two crops of runners, and Revolutionary's classy female family is geared toward

longer distances.

His maturity level does not come close to matching his raw ability at this

stage in his career, so races like the Belmont Stakes and Travers may prove to

be a better fit down the road, but Revolutionary is too talented to completely

dismiss in the Kentucky Derby.

Take nothing away from Mylute -- he turned in an extremely encouraging effort

for second and will bring improving form and legitimate BRIS numbers into the

Kentucky Derby for Tom Amoss. His pedigree offers little encouragement for 10

furlongs (out of a Valid Expectations mare), but Mylute figures to be overlooked

in the wagering and offers some appeal for the bottom of the exotics.

Revolutionary, Mylute and fourth-placer Golden Soul were 12th, 11th

and 14th, respectively after the opening half-mile and all made at least a minor

impact from far back. Departing was stalking the pace in fifth at that

point and was the only horse up close that was around at the finish. I thought

it was a sneaky-good third from the improving Al Stall runner, but Departing

probably won't have the points (20) to make the Derby field.

U.A.E. Derby

The U.A.E. Derby was worth the same amount of points as the Florida Derby and

Louisiana Derby but deserves little discussion. Lines of Battle, one of

only two Triple Crown nominees in the 1 3/16-mile event on Tapeta,

overcame a slow pace to capture his first start of the year. After winning on

Polytrack last fall, the Aidan O'Brien trainee reaffirmed his affinity for

synthetic ovals but will likely return to turf racing after the Kentucky Derby.

Coolmore bought into Verrazano and Shanghai Bobby, so they clearly fashion

the prospect of owning a classic winner stateside, but it won't come via the

Lines of Battle route -- he's been readied in the same fashion as 2012

last-place finisher Daddy Long Legs, who was totally unprepared for the Derby

experience.

Preview

Verrazano drew well in post 8 and I don't see much appeal trying to beat him

-- he looks more than capable of carrying his form forward going 1 1/8 miles in

the Wood.

After opening his career with dazzling wins over maiden and allowance rivals,

Verrazano recorded a comfortable score in the Tampa Bay Derby that served a

perfect building block. The Wood is the next step in the process and I expect

another measured victory before the ultimate litmus test at 1 1/4 miles.

Vyjack is a worthy adversary and Normandy Invasion will be

cranked for his best, but Elnaawi is the most intriguing upset contender.

A smart maiden winner two back, the son of Street Sense could've easily spit the

bit following a dreadful trip during the early stages of the Gotham, but he

recovered to post a fine third and should be set for an improved showing in his

second attempt against winners.

The Santa Anita Derby features a trio of contenders from the Baffert stable

-- Flashback, Power Broker and Super Ninety Nine -- along

with San Felipe hero Hear the Ghost.

Flashback got caught in a speed duel in the San Felipe before gamely holding for

second and receives a positive rider switch to Garrett Gomez on Saturday. Expect

him to be much more relaxed during the early stages, waiting to pounce from just

off the pace as both stablemate Super Ninety Nine and Goldencents seize the

early initiative.

Flashback is the pick and I will use late runners Hear the Ghost and Tiz a

Minister underneath him.

Top 10

1. Verrazano -- Easily passed his first test at two turns in the

   Tampa Bay Derby but would like to see him settle better during the early

   stages of the Wood Memorial

2. Orb -- Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth wins weren't flashy

   but we haven't seen the best of him yet either; love the progress he's

   making

3. Revolutionary -- Louisiana Derby winner is a prime candidate for

   a troubled trip but there is still plenty to like from a talent standpoint

4. Oxbow -- Speedy colt gained valuable seasoning while narrowly

   losing last two and looks like a natural for the 1 1/4-mile trip; dangerous

5. War Academy -- Exciting prospect will have to finish first or

   second in Arkansas Derby to qualify and believe he is more than capable

6. Flashback -- First setback in San Felipe figures to benefit

   lightly-raced colt; expect him to keep moving forward for Baffert

7. Hear the Ghost -- Improving gelding packs a strong late punch but

   would like to see him corner a little better in Santa Anita Derby

8. Itsmyluckyday -- Florida Derby runner-up has registered top BRIS

   Speed numbers in his first two starts this year

9. Vyjack -- Consider him to be a liability at longer distances but

   it's easy to admire his gutsy nature; expect another fine showing in Wood

10. Normandy Invasion -- Bubble could burst in the Wood and trainer

    Chad Brown will leave nothing on table; we'll see whether he's good enough