Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

JANUARY 14, 2015

by James Scully

Calculator looked good capturing the January 10 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita,

putting away the competition on the far turn and rolling home as much the best.

The gray colt ran well when making his two-turn debut in the FrontRunner

Stakes on September 27, offering a nice middle move before settling for

runner-up honors behind American Pharoah, but was forced to miss the Breeders'

Cup Juvenile due to a hoof injury.

He came back from a 105-day layoff better than ever, registering a

career-best 100 BRIS Speed rating for the 4 1/4-length decision. Trained by Peter

Miller, who finished last of 19 when saddling his only previous Kentucky Derby

starter, Comma to the Top in 2012, Calculator moved to third on the Kentucky

Derby leaderboard with 14 points.

The second scoring race of the year for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, the one-mile

Sham featured a convincing winner similar to El Kabeir in the one-mile and

70-yard Jerome at Aqueduct a week earlier. And while I came away impressed both

times, there's no point in getting too carried away with either performance.

January prep races are held at shorter distances and often feature

questionable competition. None of the races in the "Road to the Kentucky Derby"

series will be held at 1 1/8 miles until the middle of February and last year's

Sham, which was captured in eye-catching fashion by Midnight Hawk, did not

produce any Kentucky Derby contestants.

Flashy early-season wins are sometimes misleading.

Four of the eight Sham runners were exiting turf races and Calculator did not

defeat any stakes winners -- the Florida-bred was a maiden himself entering the

race. And Calculator still has much to prove in terms of longer distances given

that he's a son of speedball In Summation, a sire who isn't expected to have

much impact on the Kentucky Derby.

In Summation counts the Alleged mare Fiesta Gal, winner of the Grade 1

Coaching Club American Oaks at 1 1/2 miles, as his second dam, but he was

one-dimensional on track, posting all 12 wins sprinting, including the Grade 1

Bing Crosby at Del Mar in 2007. The second-year stallion figures to pass along

those characteristics to his offspring, with his only other stakes winner, Puntrooskie, capturing the six-furlong Woodstock at Woodbine last spring.

In order to be an exception, Calculator will need to mine the stamina

reserves of his female lineage.

He's out of a mare by Breeders' Cup Classic winner Alphabet Soup and the

maternal second dam is by Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic hero

Unbridled. Calculator's female ancestry also includes Oatsee, the 2011 Broodmare

of the Year following Shackleford's Grade 1 success in the Preakness.

He's run well in both two-turn starts so far and I liked what I saw from

Calculator in the Sham. He rates as a serious prospect at this stage, but

there's still a long way to go.

Upcoming

A pair of scoring races will be offered this Holiday Weekend -- Saturday's

Lecomte at Fair Grounds and Monday's Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park.

Eagle is the one to beat in the 11-horse Lecomte following a fast-closing

third in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Trained by Neil Howard,

the Candy Ride colt must overcome the far outside post at a mile and 70 yards.

Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. will be up.

Rivals include Grey winner International Star, who finished five lengths

behind Eagle when fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club; Another Lemon Drop, who

finished third to the well-regarded Dortmund before registering a field-best 96

BRIS Speed rating for a five-length romp over allowance/optional claiming foes

at Fair Grounds on December 19; Todd Pletcher-trained Savoy Stomp, who exits a

third as the favorite in a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer; and impressive

maiden winners Runhappy and Tiznow R J.

The one-mile Smarty Jones is expected to draw a large field headed by Mr. Z,

who exits a close third in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity on December 20.

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas believes he's got a legitimate chance at a fifth Kentucky

Derby victory this year with the Malibu Moon colt.

Mr. Z won his career debut at Churchill Downs in late June and made his next

seven starts versus stakes rivals, recording four runner-up finishes as well as

the aforementioned third. Lukas said Jon Court will have the mount.

Far Right is a buzz horse entering the Smarty Jones following an extremely

troubled third in the $1 million Delta Jackpot on November 22. The Notional colt

nearly fell as he was rallying into contention, dropping several lengths out of

it after being cut off at the conclusion of the far turn, and some observers

thought he was best after watching the chestnut regain his momentum for third.

Mike Smith picks up the mount for trainer Ron Moquett.

Bayerd is another expected runner of interest. Conditioned by Steve Asmussen,

the Speightstown colt has captured three of his last four starts, including a

nice win in the $250,000 Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 14.