Kentucky Derby Report

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

FEBRUARY 11, 2015

by James Scully

Santa Anita lived up to its moniker of "The Great Race Place" on February 7,

offering an outstanding rendition of the Robert B. Lewis (G2) prior to the epic

showdown of champions Shared Belief and California Chrome in the San Antonio

(G2).

We'll focus upon the sophomore set, taking a closer look at the riveting

battle between Dortmund (Big Brown) and Firing Line (Line of David) as well as

the emergence of Far From Over (Blame) in Aqueduct's Withers Stakes (G3).

Lewis

Unbeaten in three juvenile starts, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1),

Dortmund continued to enhance his reputation with a head victory in the 1

1/16-mile Lewis. After being passed on the far turn, he battled back

courageously to get the money for three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob

Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia.

The chestnut is powerful in every sense of the word, whether it's the

imposing size he brings to the proceedings or the immense talent and fiery

determination that he displays on track. He showed the heart of a warrior

through the final furlongs last Saturday.

Dortmund still has some maturing to do from a mental standpoint -- he came

under a ride early on the far turn and is not completely focused on the task at

hand yet -- and Baffert says the colt is going through a growth spurt that is

difficult to envision unless he's part Clydesdale. His threshold for classic

distances this spring is another uncertainty.

But I'm certainly wowed by his potential at this stage.

Following a 49-day layoff, Dortmund was eager from the start and the other

perceived speed in the Lewis field, Tizcano (Tiznow) and Rock Shandy (Lemon Drop

Kid), wasn't quick enough to outrun him after the opening quarter-mile.

Garcia didn't want the early advantage aboard the stalker, but he couldn't

stop Dortmund from seizing a short lead through a half-mile in :46 4/5 and

three-quarters in 1:10 3/5. Firing Line, who like Dortmund has shown a

preference for rating off the pace, settled early but jockey Gary Stevens wasn't

going to allow Dortmund to dictate things until the stretch drive.

Firing Line advanced to challenge Dortmund leaving the backstretch and was

clearly going the better of the two rounding the far turn, accelerating to a

one-length advantage in upper stretch. But Dortmund came back boldly along the

inside after straightening for home, re-rallying through a tight space to reach

even terms before forging ahead in the final strides.

Dortmund received his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (101), a positive

sign for a colt that many believe was just scratching the surface last season.

The top two finishers are both lightly-raced individuals eligible to move

forward significantly off this performance.

After runaway victories in his first two starts, Dortmund has recorded

back-to-back narrow wins in different fashion. He was too big to handle the

tight turns and traveled extremely wide while drifting out in the Los Alamitos

Futurity stretch run. In the Lewis, he ran straight and true to the wire while

being bottled down along the fence.

The one similar trait was his ability to get up just in time, like he knows

where the wire is. That was a common refrain surrounding another

physically-imposing specimen, Zenyatta.

Firing Line has now produced three seconds and a win from four career

outings, losing ground to Dortmund in the stretch run of his last two outings.

It's easy to say Dortmund has his number at this point in their careers, but

Firing Line remains a talented individual with potentially a huge upside for

conditioner Simon Callaghan.

His improving BRIS Speed ratings -- 92-93-97-100 (in order) – are easy to

admire and Stevens probably did move too early on the hard-trying colt.

I would think Callaghan has had enough of Dortmund until the first Saturday

in May and will probably take a different path to Churchill Downs. Both horses

are expected to receive only one more prep race.

The 21 1/2-length gap back to third-placer Rock Shandy, a candidate for

improvement following a runner-up effort in the January 10 Sham (G3), also

flattered Dortmund and Firing Line in their seasonal debuts.

If Baffert sticks to the plan, he'll need to keep the massive Dortmund fit

during a two-month hiatus -- the colt was working six furlongs three weeks after

the December 20 Los Alamitos Futurity and seven furlongs by mid-January. I guess

we'll see a number of long-distance works during the interim.

Withers

Far From Over fell out of the starting gate of the 1 1/16-mile Withers,

instantly spotting his rivals plenty of ground as he struggled to regain footing

from the bad stumble, and continued to trail most of the way before beginning to

make headway on the far turn.

Classy Class (Discreetly Mine) sprinted to the fore from his innermost post

and hooked up with 1-2 favorite El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) entering the backstretch.

They dueled to midstretch before being picked up by the fast-closing Far From

Over, who surged strongly to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths.

A debut maiden special weight winner going two turns on Aqueduct's inner

track on December 12, Far From Over shipped to Florida following the nose

victory to join trainer Todd Pletcher's South Florida string at Palm Beach

Downs. He returned north nine weeks later.

From the first crop of champion Blame and out of a well-bred daughter of A.P.

Indy, Far From Over looks like a natural for the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance based

on pedigree. But given that he made his debut at Aqueduct in December, it was

easy to view him as being far down the totem pole in the Pletcher stable, which

was represented by six of the 23 individual interests in Pool 2 of last

weekend's Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

That perception is starting change.

After being forwardly-placed in his initial outing, Far From Over displayed a

new dimension in the Withers and I'm excited to see his upcoming engagements. He

earned a respectable 96 BRIS Speed rating as well as a whopping 112 Late Pace

number and could return for the March 7 Gotham (G3) at the Big A.

El Kabeir had his two-race win streak snapped but managed to easily hold

second in a solid performance. Trainer John Terranova probably didn't train the

colt too hard for this engagement, with the Gotham and April 4 Wood Memorial

(G1) as likely targets, and a victory wouldn't have answered any questions

surrounding the colt's propensity for longer distances.

Upcoming

This is the last weekend of the "Prep Season" portion of the Road to the

Kentucky Derby series, which awards points on a 10-4-2-1 scale. Two races are

scheduled, including the first 1 1/8-mile test for three-year-olds, Saturday's

El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields.

Held over the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields, the El Camino Real Derby is one

of two scoring races on synthetic tracks this year along with the March 21

Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park.

The Southwest Stakes (G3), a 1 1/16-mile event on Monday's President's Day

program at Oaklawn Park, is also on tap. It will feature the top three finishers

from the local Smarty Jones last month -- Far Right (Notional), Bayerd

(Speightstown) and Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) -- along with War Story (Northern Afleet),

who invades following a runner-up in the January 17 Lecomte (G3) at Fair

Grounds. And Todd Pletcher will ship in J S Bach (Tale of the Cat), who exits an

8 1/2-length maiden win at Gulfstream.