Kentucky Derby Report -- April 5

KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT

APRIL 5, 2012

by James Scully

Union Rags came up short in Saturday's Florida Derby, finishing third behind

Take Charge Indy and Reveron, but the outcome does not hurt his

chances in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, he could still be the favorite on Derby

day as supporters look for him to rebound in style.

The surprising result did tear down the perceived sense of invincibility that

Union Rags brought into the Florida Derby, one that was fueled by a convincing

four-length score in his 2012 opener, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

He went down at 2-5 odds on Saturday, losing for the second time in his last

three starts.

Sunday's Louisiana Derby provided another upset, this one of titanic

proportions as the longest shot in the field, Hero of Order, proved best at

109-1. His connections thought so little of his Triple Crown prospects that they

failed to nominate him, meaning he has practically no chance of making the

Kentucky Derby field.

So what can we take away from the first of three weekends of major prep

races?

Perhaps it is best to expect the unexpected from these lightly-raced

sophomores.

That does not mean the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby

will all feature longshot winners this weekend, but it's safe to say there is a

lack of separation between the top-rated horses in the division. With no

standouts, we are just speculating at this point about which three-year-olds

will go on to accomplish big things.

Part of the reason why is that horses are making fewer starts before the

Derby. At least four hopefuls -- Take Charge Indy; Wood Memorial contestant

Gemologist; and U.A.E. Derby winner Daddy Long Legs and third-placer

Wrote --

are scheduled to make only one stakes attempt this year before the first

Saturday in May.

Indy takes charge

After being Grade 3-placed at two, Take Charge Indy opened the year with a

good second behind El Padrino in a Gulfstream Park allowance. He was entered in

the Grade 2 Tampa Bay on March 10, a planned predecessor to his final prep in

either the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass, but trainer Pat Byrne scratched from

the field after drawing the far outside post and re-directed his pupil to the

Florida Derby.

That left Take Charge Indy with only one chance to make the Kentucky Derby

field. The dark bay colt brought $98,400 in graded earnings into the Florida

Derby and needed to finish either first or second in order to ensure himself a

spot in the starting gate. And he had to get past Union Rags and El Padrino in

order to accomplish that goal.

On a track that was playing friendly toward speed, jockey Calvin Borel sent his mount straight to the front, establishing reasonable splits of :23 3/5,

:47 3/5 and 1:12 on a short lead, and Take Charge Indy rewarded Byrne's

confidence in wire-to-wire fashion. He faced a brief challenge from Reveron in

upper stretch before spurting clear and was always going best in the final

furlong, winning comfortably by a length.

Out of the notable race mare Take Charge Lady, a multiple Grade 1 winner

who earned more than $2.4 million, Take Charge Indy is a son of the legendary

sire A.P. Indy, who is still looking for his first Derby winner. It would be a

very fitting story in that regard to see Take Charge Indy prove successful at

Churchill Downs.

The colt will bring legitimate BRIS numbers as well as a three-time Derby

winner Borel into the first leg of the Triple Crown. After registering a 109 BRIS Speed rating in his first appearance this

year, Take Charge Indy garnered a 104 on Saturday. He was never a serious factor

in three stakes starts last year but looks much improved as a three-year-old.

And Take Charge Indy is a candidate to keep moving forward in the main event.

Julien Leparoux is generating plenty of criticism for his ride aboard Union

Rags, but his overconfidence was easy to understand. He probably thought Union

Rags towered over the competition and would coast on talent alone, riding only

to avoid mishap while putting his mount in position to fire in the final

furlongs. And the strategy backfired. After being taken back under a snug hold during the early stages,

Union Rags was

stuck down on the rail turning for home but his path was never blocked as he

had every chance to run by the top pair in the stretch. He just couldn't get

there. 

Losing to Take Charge Indy was no disgrace, but finishing a neck

back of Reveron seemed unfathomable beforehand.

Reveron, who earned only a 90 Speed rating when finishing third in the Grade

3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in his previous start, was dismissed at 31-1 on Saturday

and traveled wide into the first turn while chasing the speed from his outside

post. He benefited from a forwardly-placed trip, but give him credit for

fending off the rally of Union Rags (generating a 109 BRIS Late Pace rating). The Agustin Bezara trainee may not be able to make the Derby field with only

$220,000 in graded earnings and will be a huge outsider if he does get in.

The silver lining for the Union Rags camp is that it is just a prep race. The

Grade 1-winning colt was so impressive in his first start of the season that

trainer Michael Matz did not need to train him hard for the Florida Derby, but

that won't be the case in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Union Rags

will be primed for his best and it

would be nice to see an excuse-free trip considering the trouble he experienced

in his last start at Churchill Downs, a head second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

El Padrino is another bounce-back candidate. The Todd Pletcher trainee rolled

to a sharp two-length score over Take Charge Indy in his 2012 bow and entered

the Florida Derby off a hard-fought nose decision in the Grade 2 Risen Star

Stakes at Fair Grounds, generating century-topping Speed and Late Pace ratings

both times. He regressed off those efforts Saturday, recording an even fourth

after coming up empty at the top of the stretch, but don't be surprised to see

him show more next time. The long-striding Pulpit colt should relish the additional ground

with his pedigree.

Little impact

Sunday's Louisiana Derby could produce a Derby starter in runner-up Mark

Valeski, but the Larry Jones-trained colt will need to recover from a foot injury

suffered during the race. The field came home slowly, with the winner generating a 95 Speed

rating, and the final time was nearly three seconds slower than the track

record-setting performance in the New Orleans

Handicap at the same distance three races earlier.

Mark Valeski still performed gallantly, missing by a half-length after losing

a chunk of his left hind foot during the race, but his pedigree is suspect for

the Derby distance. It's difficult to envision this year's Louisiana Derby having much impact.

Dubai route

Daddy Long Legs stamped his ticket in Saturday's Group 2 U.A.E. Derby,

posting 1 1/4-length victory over the Tapeta track at Meydan. Owner Coolmore

Stables and trainer Aidan O'Brien have recently turned their interests toward

the American Triple Crown, sending Master of Hounds over for a fifth in the 2011

Derby, and plan on being represented by both Daddy Long Legs and third-placer

Wrote this year.

From the first crop of sire Scat Daddy, a multiple Grade 1 winner on dirt,

Daddy Long Legs was no factor when shipping to the United States for a

12th-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He is out of Meadowlake mare, a

noted speed influence who won't be seen in the immediate pedigrees of any past

Kentucky Derby winners, and Daddy Long Legs was prominent from the start of the

U.A.E. Derby, tracking the pace in second before making his move to the lead in

the stretch.

Wrote rallied into a threatening position before settling for third, two

lengths behind the winner. His victory in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Turf winner two starts back guaranteed him the needed graded earnings and Wrote

is bred to easily handle the 1 1/4-mile distance, but dirt is a legitimate

concern with his turf-oriented pedigree.

Upcoming

Three graded stakes -- Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby --

are on tap this Saturday.

Creative Cause, the top-ranked Derby contender in California, tops a field of nine

in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby. The gray colt exits a comfortable win in the Grade 2 San

Felipe Stakes, but it is surprising to see trainer Mike Harrington remove the

blinkers given that Creative Cause has made all seven career starts with the

headgear.

Trainer John Sadler is on the fence with Holy Candy, who offered a powerful

closing kick to break his maiden last out, and could scratch in favor of the

Grade 1 Blue Grass a week later. Holy Candy will receive support if he does

start in the Santa Anita Derby and is one of two intriguing maiden

winners along with the Bob Baffert-trained Paynter, who just captured his career

debut by 4 1/4 lengths on February 18.

Baffert will also be represented by Liaison, who has not run back to Grade

1-winning form in the CashCall Futurity last December. Liaison was no factor

before losing his rider in the Grade 2 Bob Lewis in early February and lacked

the needed rally finishing fourth in the San Felipe most recently. Look for him

to finally wake up with an improved showing Saturday.

The $500,000 Illinois Derby did not attract a strong field with an overflow

of 14 entrants, but the $1 million Wood Memorial will feature a pair of

well-regarded runners in Gemologist and Alpha.

Gemologist concluded his two-year-old campaign with a comfortable victory in

the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs and crushed the competition

when opening 2012 in a one-turn allowance at Gulfstream, winning by seven

lengths on March 16. The Tiznow colt rates as a very promising but untested

prospect, and Pletcher's conservative approach will provide him with only one

chance to make the Derby field ($103,855 in graded earnings).

Alpha, who was under consideration for various Triple Crown preps in recent

weeks, finally landed in the Wood Memorial for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. The

son of Bernardini switches to the main track at the Big A after recording a pair

of easy tallies in the Withers and Count Fleet Stakes over the inner oval.

My Adonis will enter the Wood Memorial off a non-threatening second to

Hansen in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and would flatter the two-year-old champion with a

strong showing Saturday. Street Life and Teeth of the Dog will face a serious

class check in their graded stakes debuts, but both are exiting nice wins at a

lower level and offer some appeal for the top three.

As the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby showed, these prep races are often

ripe for an improving three-year-old to step forth and surprise us.