2026 Kentucky Derby: Where the Value Hides for Horseplayers and Bettors

Originally published March 18, 2026

2026 Kentucky Derby Speed Ratings vs. Public Odds: Where the Value Hides

With the Road to the Kentucky Derby entering the Championship Season with 100-point racing, we decided to combine a few measurement tools for a multi-layered analysis. The main chart and graphs below reveal an insightful relationship between what horses have actually done on the track and how the betting market is pricing them heading into Churchill Downs on May 2.

Looking at the hard data of a horse's Speed Rating for a prep-race win compared to public betting interest from Future Wager final odds. Then compare and contrast with the more expert opinion, looking at the same horse’s resume represented by Fair Odds and Power Rankings.

What can we learn about these potential Kentucky Derby-contending horses?

Commandment sits atop the Brisnet Speed Rating leaderboard with a 103 earned rating in his Fountain of Youth (G2) victory at Gulfstream Park in the fastest figure recorded by any potential Derby contender in a 2026 prep race. Yet his Fair Odds (8-1), Future Wager implied probability (12-1), and Power Ranking score (2nd) all trail what that number demands. For handicappers hunting value in the top tier of probables, Commandment may be the most compelling case on the board.

Incredibolt tells a different story. His 100 Brisnet Speed Rating from the Virginia Derby drew sharp futures action that pushed him to 16-1 in Pool 5 as a notably short price for a horse whose graded stakes résumé remains thin. The chart shows all three opinion lines elevated relative to horses with comparable or better figures, flagging him as a potential overlay.

The deepest value signals for bettors come further down the odds board. Talk to Me Jimmy, with a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating in his Withers S. performance, and Iron Honor, with a 95 Speed Rating in the Gotham S. (G3), both posted strong Speed Ratings among graded company. Yet, Fair Odds, Future Wager money, and analyst Power Rankings are uniformly lukewarm with both possible contenders. When three independent opinion sources agree a horse is a longshot, but the clock says otherwise, presents exactly where Derby winners have historically come from.

About the data sources for this analysis

Brisnet Speed Ratings – This proprietary data-based calculation is a reliable metric that examines several angles of a horse’s performance and race structure to provide handicappers with reliable information. In this case, that information tells the story of speed performance – a top quality for a Kentucky Derby runner. These ratings are not based on opinion but on a consistent algorithm. 

Kentucky Derby Future Wager – Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager recently closed at the time of writing this analysis. The wagering public impacts the changes from set opening odds to the money bet by the close of the wager, thus the odds valuation for each horse offered in the bet. These odds help identify favoritism among the public, or we could say public opinion among bettors. Find official Future Wager information here.

Power Rankings – The TwinSpires Kentucky Derby Power Rankings are exclusive to KentuckyDerby.com and are a weekly review and ranking awarding for horses looking towards a start in the Kentucky Derby. Find the Kentucky Derby Power Rankings by TwinSpires here.

Fair Odds – The TwinSpires Kentucky Derby Fair Odds are created by one of our top internal talents with decades of experience in handicapping and expertise with the Triple Crown. We leverage the full spectrum of past performances, training, and connection information through a lens of historical context and proprietary BRISnet data-based tools.