Nearly wins pace battle, romps in Holy Bull

Centennial Farms’ Nearly passed his initial test on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in Saturday’s $267,500 Holy Bull (G3), winning the pace battle and the war in a romp at Gulfstream Park. 

The Todd Pletcher trainee will try to pick up the mantle of his now-sidelined stablemate, champion Ted Noffey, on the Derby trail. By banking 20 points in his stakes and two-turn debut, Nearly has taken over as the top active contender on the leaderboard. 

“It was an impressive race,” Pletcher said of the Holy Bull. “We always felt like he would handle the stretch-out, but it’s always good to see.

“The horse has been training super, and we felt good coming into this but, yeah, that was everything we hoped it would be.”

Still, the race dynamic of the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull – fast early fractions and a slow finish – indicates that Nearly is likely to face stiffer challenges as the trail progresses. 

At the same time, Nearly’s third straight victory at Gulfstream establishes that he is no “nearly” horse. There was also a touch of class about the way he pressed, and then disposed of, post-time favorite Cannoneer.

Nearly was pegged as the 9-5 favorite on the Holy Bull morning line, but went off as the slight second choice at 1.70-1. Cannoneer, a flashy Churchill Downs maiden winner, ultimately edged him in the betting at odds of 3-2. Bob Baffert’s Buetane would have been a key player as well, but he was withdrawn early after his flight was canceled. 

The market leaders wasted no time in turning the Holy Bull into a match race, even making contact with each other right out of the gate. Cannoneer attempted to leverage his early speed, only to have Nearly draped alongside to force the issue.

Feeling the pressure through fractions of :22.82 and :45.96, Cannoneer could no longer maintain the lead rounding the far turn. Nearly put his head in front passing six furlongs in 1:10.32, and Cannoneer soon beat a retreat.

Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez took a couple of glances back for potential challengers to Nearly. The stalking Bravaro was the only one in sight, but he was not going strongly enough to pose a threat.

Nearly was just encouraged to keep up the gallop. He retained his focus to the wire while drawing off by 5 3/4 lengths. 

His gaudy margin masks the deceleration at the end. Nearly posted a slow fourth quarter in :27.10 to reach the mile in 1:37.42, and his final sixteenth elapsed in :7.10, resulting in a final time of 1:44.52.

“I thought it was going to be a two-horse race,” Velazquez said, “but I didn’t think my horse (Nearly) would be that close. He got a little aggressive today. He was never like that. Normally, it takes him a little while to get his legs under him, but today he was there right away.

“This race, he elevated to a different level. I didn’t expect him to be that aggressive, but that’s what good horses do.” 

Bravaro lost ground late but still placed a clear second (10 points). Project Ace, the 40-1 longest shot on the board, was the only closer to get involved when rallying from last for third (six points). 

Cannoneer succumbed in fourth (four points), followed by Global Aviator (two points) and Incredibolt, the winner of the Street Sense (G3) who never factored here. Roger That Dana and Game for It were scratched along with Buetane.

Nearly sports a 3-for-4 mark with earnings of $249,900. After a disappointing last on debut at Aqueduct, the Florida-bred has been unbeatable in his home state. Nearly rebounded with a vengeance in a state-bred maiden on Nov. 22 and crushed an entry-level allowance on Jan. 2, when he earned rave reviews for overcoming a bad start. 

After Nearly extended his streak in the Holy Bull, Pletcher pushed back on the idea of stepping into the void left by Ted Noffey.

“You have ups and downs in this game, that’s just the way it is,” Pletcher said. “(Ted Noffey) won’t be the only defection on the way to the Derby. We were fortunate he had a magnificent two-year-old campaign, and it just wasn’t meant to be in the early spring for this year. We’re happy the prognosis is good for a healthy comeback, and we look forward to getting him back at Saratoga.

“I don’t really look at it like this one replaces that one. This horse has been doing well on his own, and we have high hopes for him. We’re happy to have him.”

Pletcher noted that the March 28 Florida Derby (G1) is likely next on the agenda. 

Nearly is yet another advertisement for red-hot sire Not This Time, who turned a scoring race double at Gulfstream. Earlier on the Holy Bull card, his daughter On Time Girl captured the Forward Gal (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

Bred by Wind Hill Farm in the Sunshine State, Nearly sold for $350,000 as a Keeneland September yearling. His dam, the Mineshaft mare Ib Prospecting, is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Frolic’s Revenge. 

A noted producer herself, Frolic’s Revenge is responsible for Grade 1-placed stakes victor Drew’s Gold, who recently captured the Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) during the Dubai Carnival. This is the further family of Grade 2-winning millionaire Super Frolic.