Strategic Risk draws clear, leads Casse exacta in Smarty Jones

After tracking a slow pace, John C. Oxley’s homebred Strategic Risk took over entering the stretch and rolled to a 4 1/2-length decision in Saturday’s $250,000 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. A nine-length winner of the restricted In Reality at Gulfstream on Nov. 29, Strategic Risk recorded his first win over open competition and earned 10 qualifying points for the Road to the Kentucky Derby Challenge series race.

Trained by Mark Casse, who also sent out runner-up Silent Tactic, Strategic Risk is by Noble Bird. Javier Castellano traveled from South Florida to ride the improving bay colt.

Off as the 5-2 second choice in the 1 1/16-mile race, Strategic Risk prompted 51-1 outsider Scar Ship through soft opening splits in :24.48, :49.72, and 1:14.99. He drew even nearing the completion of the far turn and offered a nice turn of foot to quickly draw clear in upper stretch, eventually finishing up in 1:45.06.

“I communicated this morning back and forth with Javier,” Casse said (via phone). “I told him, looking at everything, I said: ‘I don’t think they can beat him.’ We felt pretty confident going in. I thought his last race, I know that he didn’t beat a lot in the Stallion Stakes, but the way he did it and the ease he did it with, I just felt like he was going to be tough. 

“Now, midway through the card, I communicated with Javier again and said: ‘Boy oh boy, speed is very tough.’ He said: ‘Yeah, I know, I’m worried about that.’ But once they broke and he was where he was, I always thought he was a winner. I just watched the replay, and the horse that ran a heck of a race was Silent Tactic because he got bothered two or three times down the backside. They just made it tight on him. He came running. That was his first dirt race, so I think he’ll move forward as well.”

Silent Tactic, unraced since a runner-up in the Grey (G3) at Woodbine last October and 14-1 in his first dirt start, offered a wide move from off the pace to grab second while never threatening the winner. Turf maiden winner Baytown Dreamer, the longest shot among eight runners at 84-1, finished three-quarters of a length back in third.

The Kentucky Derby qualifier awarded points on a 5-3-2-1 scale to second through fifth. Sleepingonfreedom wound up fourth, nearly 10 lengths behind the winner, and 2.90-1 third choice Rancho Santa Fe closed belatedly for fifth. Scar Ship, 2.30-1 favorite Universe, and Oscar’s Hope completed the order.

A romping debut winner over Florida-bred maiden rivals at Gulfstream in early June, Strategic Risk followed with unplaced finishes in the Sanford (G3) and With Anticipation (G3), the latter on turf. He returned to restricted competition with a third in the seven-furlong Affirmed division of the Florida Sire Stakes series in mid-October and thrived while stretching to 1 1/16 miles in the In Reality division of the Florida Sire Stakes.

Strategic Risk is now squarely on the Kentucky Derby trail. 

“I liked the way he finished,” Castellano said. “He galloped out beautifully. His stride was strong and steady…He got a lot of potential.”

Mystik Dan, the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, prepped in the Smarty Jones, and it’s the first of four Kentucky Derby qualifying races at Oaklawn Park in 2026. The Hot Springs track will offer the $1 million Southwest (G3) on Jan. 31, $1 million Rebel (G2) on March 1, and $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.

Casse said Strategic Risk would target the Southwest.

The second stakes winner out of the unraced Afleet Alex mare Strategize, Strategic Risk counts multiple Grade 1-winning millionaire Educated Risk as his third maternal dam.