Law against the monarchy

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

JULY 5, 2014

Law against the monarchy

by James Trotter

Though a handful of Grade 1s are still to come on the

South African racing calendar after this weekend, the Group 1 Durban July is

the destination to which all paths lead, and is the climactic pinnacle of the

country's racing season.

As the Kentucky Derby is to the United States and the Melbourne Cup is to Australia, the Durban July is the one race every owner,

trainer, breeder and jockey wants to win. It is the one race that garners

national public interest -- the one race that will see the winner in headlines

throughout South Africa, its name immortalized on the list of champions to have

won Africa's richest race.

Nearly 63,000 people are expected to pour into Durban's

Greyville Racecourse on Saturday to take part in one of the country's largest and most

famous social events. Though many will be in attendance more for the fashion and

festivities, those who will have their attention on the racing will be in for a

cracking show. In addition to the timeless prestige of a Durban July victory,

Horse of the Year and champion three-year-old titles will be up for the taking.

The hype leading up to the race has been all about the

three-year-olds, with the top four spots in the betting -- and six of the top

eight -- being filled by members of the sophomore division. This may be partly due

to the perceived strength of the three-year-old crop; however, the trend has been

exacerbated by the fact that a number of the country's leading older horses are

stationed overseas or are under quarantine to be exported.

South Africa's leading older horse Yorker (Jet Master), for instance, had to begin his series of quarantines in June in order to

participate in next year's Dubai World Cup Carnival. His non-attendance on

Saturday has left the Horse of the Year title up for grabs. When the country's

leading female, Beach Beauty (Dynasty), defected at a late stage to defend

her title in the Group 1 Garden Province against her own sex, the gates to the

July's treasures were opened even wider for the oncoming three-year-old invasion.

That charge is being led by the two colts currently vying

for champion sophomore honors -- Louis the King (Black Minnaloushe) and

Legislate (Dynasty).

The former reeled off four consecutive

victories in Johannesburg, including the South African Triple Crown and two

Grade 1s, before being conquered by Legislate last out when a close-up third in

the Group 1 Daily News 2000 on May 31. Louis the King turned for home in last place that

day and never had a clean passage up the straight, and is certainly better than

the result suggests. "Louis" has already proven that he is as tenacious as he is

talented. He has no stamina doubts, and is remarkably consistent. If anyone

beats him Saturday, they will have to work for it.

Legislate's victory in the Daily News 2000 fueled an

already lofty reputation established with an easy Group 1 Cape Derby win on February 1 and

his Group 2 KZN Guineas score on May 3. After pulling early in the Daily News 2000 and

sitting near the tail of the field alongside Louis the King, Legislate was

allowed to make his run around horses entering the straight and exploded to the

front. Once on the lead, however, he hung toward the inside and begun to ease

down, almost being caught in the final strides by the late-finishing Rake's

Chestnut (Horse Chestnut).

Whether it was fitness, immaturity, or

the jockey's miscalculation that day that caused him to gear down is the

question that should be answered Saturday, and that answer may have a major impact

on the result. The one thing that is certain is that trainer Justin Snaith's

charge has class in abundance, and his name would not look out of place if it

were to join his sire's on the Durban July roll of honor. Counting against

Legislate, however, is that he must concede weight to all of his contemporaries

and defy history in carrying the most weight by a three-year-old to victory in the

Durban July.

The next two three-year-olds in the betting -- Futura (Dynasty) and Rake's Chestnut

-- are both lightly raced and somewhat unknown quantities. Rake's Chestnut

looked out of place coming into the Daily News 2000, having only one victory to

his name from three starts. Two-time Durban July winning trainer Geoff Woodruff

has made it clear that he sees Louis the King as his main July hope over Rake's

Chestnut; however, this improving son of South African icon Horse Chestnut has appeared to improve as the distances

increase, and it would not be a shock to find him in the winner's circle.

Low weight will be carried by Futura, whose inclusion in

the race brought with it an air of controversy. Winning four of his first five

starts in progressive fashion, he had been tipped as a likely July candidate

long before taking on stakes company for the first time.

The Durban July is a handicap, and so connections were taking the

shrewd gamble of qualifying for the July under the lowest possible weight. The

path chosen, therefore, was to avoid the classics and slip in the side door by

facing up against older handicappers in the Group 3 Cup Trial -- a recognized prep race

for the Durban July. When Futura lost that race by a long head on June 7, it

appeared as though that plan had gone up in flames. Last week, however, when the

final field was unveiled, he had scraped in.

Futura is a colt that has shown

glimpses of high-class ability, and is one who will likely improve with the

extra distance he tries today. He receives up to seven pounds from his peers.

The older brigade is led by triple Group 1 winner Capetown

Noir (Western Winter), who wears blinkers for the first time after not

appearing up to his best form in his last two starts -- a third in a Grade 2

over the course on May 3 and a most recent fourth in the Group 1 Gold Challenge

on June 7. Though the Dean Kannemeyer charge did win the Group 1 Cape Derby

going 2000 meters last year, his best

form has looked to be over a mile, and the July's 2200-meter distance still

holds many stamina doubts for him.

A horse who should see out the trip is Gold

Challenge winner King of Pain (Greys Inn); however, in the last 30 years,

only three horses have won the July with 128 pounds or more, and so a victory

under top weight is no easy task.

Trainer Sean Tarry has won the last two runnings of the

Durban July for his primary owner, Chris van Niekerk, and the pair have two

arrows in their bow this year -- Halve the Deficit (Right Approach) and Whiteline Fever (Right Approach). Both horses have won Grade 2s this

past season and come into the race with form; however, due to his lower weight

and better record over the distance, Halve the Deficit, winner of the Group 2

Colorado King on April 5 and most recently second in the Group 3 Jubilee Handicap

on June 14,

is currently the pick of the market.

Only three fillies have won the July in the last 30 years,

and four have the chance to join that exulted list Saturday, with dual Grade

1-winning sophomore In the Fast Lane (Jet Master), last year's

Triple Tiara winner Cherry on the Top (Tiger Ridge) and Mike de Kock's

multiple Group 2-winning and Group 1-placed Espumanti (Dansili) all in

with chances.