Oak Tree Notebook

OAK TREE NOTEBOOK

OCTOBER 17, 2008

by Dick Powell

Week number three of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meet saw a dramatic drop in

field sizes and favorites' ability to win.

For the first two weeks of the meet, the average field size for 68 races on

the Pro-Ride was a healthy 9.53. For 23 races run on the turf, it was 9.17.

The strong field sizes for the first two weeks of the meet resulted in

favorites winning 30.77 percent on the Pro-Ride and 30.43 percent on the turf 

--  all perfectly reasonable results considering field sizes being better

than average.

But in week three, partially because of a six-day holiday week which

stretched the horse population thin, field sizes dropped on both the Pro-Ride

and the turf. On the 39 races run on the Pro-Ride, the average field size was

now 8.00  --  down from the 9.53 for the first two weeks. On the 12

races run on the turf, the average field size dropped to 7.58  -- 

down from the 9.17 for the first two weeks.

Usually, when field size goes down, the percentage of winning favorites goes

up. But in week three at Oak Tree, the percentage of winning favorites for the

39 races run on the Pro-Ride dropped to 23.08 percent. For 12 turf races, form continued

to hold as the favorite won 33.3 percent of the time.

Why handicapping the races on the Pro-Ride suddenly became harder when the

average field size dropped 16 percent is tough to figure. On Wednesday and

Thursday, only one favorite won on Pro-Ride  --  one in 13. But

examining the charts from those two days shows the normal mix of running styles

winning on the Pro-Ride. For now, we will have to call it a statistical

aberration and keep tracking it.

I have to assume that field size will continue to be less than what it was in

the first two weeks. As more horses ship in for the Breeders' Cup and the

supporting stakes races surrounding it, local horses are displaced from their

stalls and until those stakes races are run we will see fewer horses competing.

It should all work itself out with giant fields expected for the Breeders' Cup.

With few stakes races run, the star of the week was CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft), who was returning to the races off a 155-day layoff. Unlike most horses that go

to the sidelines, Casino Drive was scratched from the Belmont S. (G1) due to

an injury, went back to Japan, and has now come back to the United Stakes to

prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

Winner of the Peter Pan S. (G2) in only his second career start, which

earned a terrific BRIS Speed Rating of 109, Casino Drive needed a race to get

ready for the Classic and a second-level allowance race at 1 1/16 miles on

Pro-Ride was selected.

Facing an overmatched field of six others, Casino Drive was sent off at 2-5

and any questions about his ability to grab a hold of the track was quickly

dispelled. With Victor Espinoza in the irons, the half-brother to Belmont S. winners JAZIL (Seeking the Gold) and RAGS TO RICHES (A.P. Indy) cruised along

while clear on the outside.

Looking like he could take the lead at any time, Espinoza was content to take

his time and stalk dawdling fractions of :24.36 and :49.07. With only two weeks to

the Classic, Espinoza was in the tenuous position of wanting to get enough out

of the race to set him up for an improved effort but not strenuous enough to set

him back. He walked the tightrope perfectly as Casino Drive went up to the lead

around the far turn and then was kept to the task in the lane to win by a

measure three-quarters of a length.

Casino Drive's final time for the 1 1/16 miles was 1:42.14, which was good

considering how slow they went early. He covered his last five-sixteenths in :29.25, which was especially fast with the ground he lost around the turn.

They say that pace makes the race and pace certainly makes the Speed figure.

Casino Drive only earned a BRIS Speed rating of 94. But his pace figures were

52, 62 and 123. The early pace of the race was -34, -30. If this were a public

workout, which it was, the clockers would be raving about it.

Track Stats

Week Three:
Overall:		13 winning favorites in 51 races		25.41 percent
Pro-Ride:		9 winning favorites in 39 races		23.08 percent
Turf:		4 winning favorites in 12 races		33.33 percent
Meet to Date:
Overall:		40 winning favorites in 142 races		38.17 percent
Pro-Ride:		29 winning favorites in 107 races		27.10 percent
Turf:		11 winning favorites in 35 races		31.43 percent.

HORSES TO WATCH

Wednesday (10/08)

2ND -- AUSTIE (General Meeting) was a good second coming from

behind in his two-turn Santa Anita debut.

3RD -- TIFFANYSPINGSROAD (Tenpins) lost all chance when he broke

poorly but still rallied nicely and merits another try against bottom claimers.

Thursday (10/09)

3RD -- DIXIELAND POP (Dixieland Band) lost all chance in two-turn

debut when a 71-1 shot challenged her on the lead.

8TH -- MOON MOMENT (Momentum) didn't run bad in her two-turn

debut when racing in between horses through a fast pace.

Friday (10/10)

3RD -- ROYAL FORTUNE (Giant's Causeway) was a good third in her

career debut in a wide trip.

5TH -- WILD AND READY (More Than Ready) had no shot rallying from

behind when the two speed horses ran one-two.

Saturday (10/11)

4TH -- LICORICEWHIP (Black Minnaloushe) rallied nicely in his

career debut going down the hill for Jerry Fanning, who only wins with 4 percent

of his firsters anyway.

6TH -- ROYAL TAAT (NZ) (Faltaat) overcame traffic to win going

away in a downhill turf sprint and looks to be stakes quality for John Sadler.

Sunday (10/12)

6TH -- WILMA RULES (Tribal Rules) was used hard from post 1 before tiring some in his career debut and can be back from an outside draw.

Monday (10/13)

4TH -- PEARL FISHER (Smart Strike) was a good third in his turf

debut and should be tough going longer than a mile.