Pace Handicapping the 2007 Kentucky Derby

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

MAY 15, 2007

Pace Handicapping the 2007 Kentucky Derby

by Tony Kelzenberg

I'm sure most of you heard how the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) transpired. The

point of this article is to make a plausible case that the EXACT order of the

top three finishers (and a cold 200-1 trifecta) could have been taken from the

Brisnet.com PPs and a thorough knowledge of pace handicapping, featuring usage

of BRIS Late Pace numbers.

Pace Handicapping – the basics and the 2007 Kentucky Derby "speed horses"

Generally, pace handicapping is determining which horse can get the lead. A

more sophisticated analysis will determine if the top speed horses (early

leaders) will "run each other ragged," setting up the race for the closers

(come-from-behind horses). Let's see how the speed horses in this year's

Kentucky Derby stacked up (E2 = second call pace, LP = Late Pace, SPD = BRIS

Speed figure).

Horse		Race		E2		LP		SPD
#6 Cowtown Cat		Ill Derby		97		110		106
#8 Hard Spun		Lane's End		111		97		106
#9 Liquidity		SA Derby		99		87		95
#10 Teuflesberg		Southwest		106		94		102
#12 Nobiz Like Shobiz		Wood Mem		113		86		102
#17 Stormello		Fount of Youth		113		83		101

Kind of a mess, huh? Usually the E2 number will point one to the best early

speed horse, but we have three between 111 and 113. How do we determine who was

to be the "early leader?"

This is where trainer intent comes in. Off a victory in the Lane's End, Larry

Jones had Hard Spun (Danzig) work a five-furlong bullet, then a stiff mile on

Polytrack (under the whip), then an ultra-brilliant :57 3/5 bullet at Churchill

Downs in company, the fastest pre-Derby work since the great Forego worked :57

at Churchill in 1973. It didn't take a psychic to figure out Jones was going to

have Hard Spun extremely ready for the Kentucky Derby.

As for Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) and Stormello (Stormy Atlantic),

they both took post positions OUTSIDE Hard Spun, rather than inside posts,

implying strongly both trainers were going to try to RATE their horses wide.

There didn't figure to be a speed duel.

Who were the horses to use? Hard Spun at 10-1 was very useable with his big

numbers and solid form in the mornings. Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor) was a

tricky read. He ran a great Speed number (106) at Hawthorne in the Illinois

Derby (G2), and his closing fractions were excellent, as evidenced by his huge

LP number. He was an outsider, but he was also 18-1, so he was a "use" too, at

least on my analysis.

How fast will the pace be? The PAR E2 for the Kentucky Derby is 107, and the

top three speed horses all could run E2 numbers greater than 111. The pace was

going to be FAST. We better take a look at the closers.

Pace Handicapping - the 2007 Kentucky Derby "closers"

Horse		Race		E2		LP		SPD
#2 Curlin		Ark Derby		89		110		102
#7 Street Sense		Tampa Bay Derby		90		116		105
#15 Tiago		SA Derby		87		108		100
#16 Circular Quay		LA Derby		101		105		105
#18 Any Given Saturday		Tampa Bay Derby		96		110		102
#20 Great Hunter		Bob Lewis		89		108		100

Three things stand out to me. One, Curlin (Smart Strike), while winning each

of his races by "a pole," was fairly ordinary on the numbers, and Tiago

(Pleasant Tap) wasn't really competitive. Neither was top in BRIS Late Pace, or

BRIS Speed. Add these facts to their combined lack of experience, and neither

was a serious win candidate. Two, Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) was the "crème

de la crème closer" with his sterling Tampa Bay race and known affinity for the

CD surface. He was tops on BRIS LP and BRIS Speed. Three, Any Given Saturday

(Distorted Humor) appeared to have a chance, given his wide trip in the Tampa

Bay Derby (G3). Circular Quay's (Thunder Gulch) Louisiana Derby (G2) was great,

but it was eight weeks ago and there was no sharp "Derby Week" workout to

predict a return to that form. I didn't use him.

I ranked the closers with Street Sense first, Any Given Saturday second and

Curlin third.

Betting Decisions

The 2007 Kentucky Derby figured to have a fast pace, and that meant a closer

should win. The BRIS numbers indicated Street Sense was the best closer. If I

was right about Larry Jones' methods, Hard Spun was set to put in a monster

effort on the front end.

Here are my odds estimates on my top five horses:

Horse		% Win Chance		Proj. Odds		Off Odds		Overlay
Street Sense		25%		3-1		4.9-1		Yes
Hard Spun		16%		5-1		10-1		Yes
Any Given Saturday		11%		8-1		13-1		Yes
Cowtown Cat		9%		10-1		18-1		Yes
Curlin		6%		15-1		5-1		No

I may have overrated Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat and underrated Curlin.

I exacta boxed my top four selections, and I bet Street Sense to win. Curlin,

being a late runner, probably was a logical horse to "throw in" for third in the

trifectas and on the bottom of the superfectas.

Conclusion

BRIS Pace ratings can be used to find value in many races and worked very

well in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The pace numbers led straight to the Kentucky

Derby exacta and could be used to hit the trifecta.