Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

DECEMBER 29, 2005

by Tim Holland

With the New Year nearly upon us, this is a good time for handicappers to do

some self-analyzing and tone up their skills. A vital part of being a successful

horseplayer is playing to one's strengths and using all the tools available. My

strength has always been using pedigrees, trainer angles and track bias

information, and, with that in mind, I used the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances,

Sire Stats book and the American Produce Records (APR) CD to take a closer look

at some upcoming maiden and turf events.

Thursday, Turfway, 10TH

The Greg Foley-trained FRONTIER EXPRESS (8-1), who is by Carson City and out

of a Silver Deputy half-sister to two stakes-winning sprinters, is bred for

speed. Carson City's produce have an Average Winning Distance (AWD) of 6.4f and

his Standard Production Index (SPI) is an above average 2.26. In his debut at

Churchill, the juvenile colt showed speed toward the unfavorable rail before

fading badly. However, with speed faring quite well in sprints over the

Polytrack this meet and Foley winning at 22 percent clip second-time out,

Frontier Express may go wire to wire here.

If the track turns out to be more tiring than expected, the one to beat will

be REGAL MINISTER (5-2), who closed well to be third here in a maiden at the

beginning of the month. Regal Minister has some stamina in his pedigree, being

by Service Stripe out of a Graustark (AWD 7.7f) mare who is a full-sister to the

Spinster S. (G1) winner Tempest Queen.

Friday, Tampa Bay, 1ST

Trainer Joe Woodard's horses seem to have regained their form and he sends

out JEFF'S CREEK (5-1), who is by Catienus (SPI 1.56), in this spot. Out of

Teach (Pine Bluff), who sports a record of 11-4-2-0 with earnings of $133,484,

Jeff's Creek has run decent at the $15,000 maiden claiming level and drops to

half that price on Friday. The two-year-old has the credentials to dominate this

weak group.

HARBOR PATROL (8-1), a first-time starter, is the only runner in the race

whose sire (Stormy Atlantic at 1.63) owns a higher SPI than Catienus. He's got

some other decent stats in his favor, such as trainer Earl Begley's 17 percent

win rate with first-time starters, and is one to keep an eye on for tote board

action.

Friday, Tampa Bay, 5TH

AIZARUNNER (6-1) ships in from Northern California where he owned a solid

turf record of 5-3-1-0. By the decent turf sire Exploit ("B" rating in the Sire

Stats book), Aizarunner is out of a Majestic Light mare who won three times on

the grass. Deeper investigation with the APR reveals that his granddam is by

Epsom Derby winner and turf influence Blakeney. Although unraced since the

beginning of November, Aizarunner sports good local works and his high BRIS Late

Pace figures make him tough to beat here.

Friday, Tampa Bay, 7TH

A half-brother to three stakes winners, STONE HAND (10-1) was well bet in his

debut at Churchill but lost almost all chance when badly bumped at the start. By

Two Punch (AWD 6.3f) and trained by Joan Scott, who wins 26 percent second-time

out, Stone Punch shows three nice works over the track in preparation and looks

worth a wager.

Friday, Tampa Bay, 10TH

SAGE'S FIFTY SIX (12-1) will be making just her second start on the grass in

this one-mile event. However, her sire, Victory Gallop, is rated a "B" for the

turf in the Sire Stat book and the APR shows that his dam, Queen of Bronze, who

is by noted turf sire Roberto, went 9-2-4-3 and earned more than $75,000 on the

grass. She's also produced turf stakes winner Danzig Queen. Shipping in from

Finger Lakes, Sage's Fifty Six should not draw too much attention at the windows

and may outrun her odds.