Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

SEPTEMBER 23, 2006

Fishing trip for Dylan Thomas

by Tim Holland

The sudden and slightly surprising news that the Aidan O'Brien-trained,

Coolmore-owned Irish Derby (Ire-G1) winner Dylan Thomas (Danehill) may tackle

Bernardini (A.P. Indy) and Invasor (Arg) (Candy Stripes) in the Jockey Club Gold

Cup (G1) on October 7 at Belmont Park, or alternatively may appear at Turfway

Park a week early, raised many eyebrows. Indeed, it was even hinted by some that

the Coolmore team, upset at being outbid by Sheikh Mohammed last week on many of

the leading Keeneland September Sales yearlings, were simply taking a shot at

derailing the Darley-owned Bernardini's quest for Horse of the Year. However,

O'Brien's explanation that this is merely a "fishing trip" to see if the colt

will handle the dirt as a preview to maybe running in the Breeders' Cup Classic

(G1) makes more sense.

Five horses have represented Coolmore in the Breeders' Cup Classic, all since

2000 when Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat) came so close to winning. Giant's

Causeway was nicknamed the "Iron Horse," and for good reason, having won five

straight Group 1 races in England and Ireland that summer, all in hard-fought

fashion, including victories over 10 furlongs in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) and the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1). His three defeats in that three-year-old

season had come in the English Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), followed by the

Irish equivalent in the spring, and the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) in his

start prior to the Classic. All three of these defeats were contested over soft

turf. Being by Storm Cat and out of a Grade 2 winner on the dirt, it was

expected that Giant's Causeway would take to the dirt. So it was little surprise

to many that he ran a huge race from the 13 post to be beaten in a thriller by Tiznow, who would go on to repeat the following year.

In 2001, Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) was sent from Ballydoyle to contest

the Classic at Belmont. Having already proven himself as clearly the best of his

generation on the turf in Europe through wins in the English Derby (Eng-G1),

Irish Derby and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Diamond S. (Eng-G1), the

connections may have been taking a calculated gamble that he would take to the

dirt. Indeed, had he won, or even finished close in the Classic, the upside

through the colt's desirability to American breeders (in addition to the

Europeans) when he entered stud would have been enormous -- similar to that of

Giant's Causeway. However, and as it turned out to be the case, if he did not

run well, Galileo would not lose any popularity with the top European breeders,

so there was little downside to this venture.

Hawk Wing (Woodman) represented O'Brien in the 2002 renewal at Arlington

Park. By a sire who had been responsible for American classic winners Hansel and

Timber Country, one might have expected him to be at home on the main track

despite his female family being mostly turf-oriented. Top class over a mile in

England and Ireland, Hawk Wing's best performance may have been a fast finishing

second to Rock of Gibraltar (Ire) in the Two Thousand Guineas. This was followed

by another second-place finish behind a stable companion, this time to High

Chaparral (Ire) in the Epsom Derby run over very soft going. Hawk Wing achieved

his biggest win in his next race, the Eclipse S. (G1) at Sandown Park, on soft

ground and two subsequent defeats as the odds-on favorite over faster ground

lent support to the theory that Hawk Wing might not be suited to the harder dirt

surface he would face in Chicago. However, a poor break from post 10 and a

subsequent wide trip at Arlington put an end to his chances whether he relished

the dirt or not.

In 2003, there was little doubt that Hold That Tiger (Storm Cat), who had

finished third in the previous year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and is a

half-brother to Belmont S. (G1) winner Editor's Note, could act on the dirt.

After three poor performances in England exposed him as below top class on the

turf, the colt was sent to Belmont for the Woodward S. (G1) in which he put in a

good showing to chase Horse of the Year Mineshaft home, beaten more than four lengths

after showing much better early speed than was his usual style. However, he may

have been flattered by this result since the best that finished behind Hold That

Tiger was Grade 2 winner Puzzlement. This was indeed confirmed by Hold That

Tiger's fifth-place finish in the Classic, in which he had trouble at the break

and, as with Giant's Causeway and Hawk Wing, was caught wide.

After sitting out the 2004 Classic, Coolmore sent Oratorio (Ire) (Danehill)

for last year's edition. By Danehill, like Dylan Thomas, Oratorio had proven his

class at 10 furlongs through victories in the Eclipse S. and the Irish Champion

S. (Ire-G1), beating the Epsom Derby winner Motivator by a half-length in both

while enjoying soft going. However, Oratorio's preferred running style, while

advantageous on the turf in Europe, was to settle toward the rear before making

a strong late run, which would be his downfall at Belmont Park. Having drawn

post 3, jockey Kieren Fallon had little choice but to rate his charge in sixth

or seventh place toward the inside. While Oratorio did try to make a challenge,

it was short-lived and he faded to a well-beaten 11th, beating only two home,

and Fallon commented that his mount was intimidated while on the inside and was

not used to the considerable kickback.

In addition to being by Danehill, who has proven himself as one of the best

turf sires worldwide in recent years, Dylan Thomas is out of a mare by Diesis

(GB) who is having a banner year as a broodmare sire. With his daughters

previously responsible for grass-oriented millionaires such as Cetewayo, Honor

in War (Lord at War [Arg]) and Manndar (Ire), they are also credited with this

year's English St Leger S. (Eng-G1) victor Sixties Icon (Galileo [Ire]), who is

set to take his chance in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) in October.

After a two-year-old season in which he was rated far below the best of his

stable, Dylan Thomas is now challenging George Washington (Danehill) (who is due

to contest Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot) as the top three-year-old at

Ballydoyle. An easy victory in the Derrinstown Stud S. (Ire-G2) in his

three-year-old debut earned the colt a place in the Epsom Derby, in which he put

in a huge performance to finish third, beaten less than a half-length at odds of 25-1. While

many do not rate the form of this year's Derby very highly -- it was run in a

slow time over fast ground and many horses, including a maiden and another who

had only just broken his maiden, finished very close up -- the staying

performance of Dylan Thomas, who had taken the lead after just three furlongs,

was outstanding especially when many had doubted his stamina.

In his next start, Dylan Thomas proved that his Epsom showing was no fluke

with an easy victory in the Irish Derby over fast going, cementing the English

form while beating the Italian Derby (Ity-G1) winner Gentlewave (Monsun) by more

than three lengths with French Derby winner Darsi (Polish Precedent) a

well-beaten fifth. While Dylan Thomas is probably best at 10 furlongs, doubts

about his stamina were dispelled again. However, in his next race, the Juddmonte

International S. (Eng-G1), his Achilles heel was exposed in the form of soft

ground. After racing keenly early on sitting behind the moderate pace set by

Cherry Mix (Linamix), Dylan Thomas never really got into contention and finished

a one-paced fourth, a victim of the going and the pace. Following that

disappointment Dylan Thomas returned to firmer ground at Leopardstown and, given

an outstanding ride by Fallon, ran the race of his life to defeat Ouija Board

(GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) and Alexander Goldrun (Gold Away [Ire]) in the Irish

Champion.

Dylan Thomas has proven that his ideal scenario is lying close to the early

pace over firm ground at 10 furlongs, and of the five previous Coolmore runners

to attempt the Breeders' Cup Classic, the closest to match this is Giant's

Causeway. However, while the latter's pedigree suggested that dirt should be no

problem, the same cannot be said for Dylan Thomas, so it will pay the

connections to make this "fishing trip" before committing to the big race at

Churchill Downs in November.