Pennsylvania Derby

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Like many hopefuls in last month's Travers S. (G1), A LITTLE WARM (Stormin

Fever) endured a needlessly wide trip and withered late in that 1 1/4-mile

test. We feel the Virginia-bred can rebound in Saturday's $1 million

Pennsylvania Derby (G2) at the former Philadelphia Park, working out a

pace-pressing trip under Garrett Gomez in the nine-furlong contest.

Though forced to miss the Triple Crown, A Little Warm displayed progressive

form prior to the classics when taking the Spectacular Bid S. and running second

in both the Hutcheson S. (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). Prior to the Travers, A

Little Warm turned in a strong performance winning the Jim Dandy S. (G2) by 1

3/4 lengths and earning a strong BRIS Speed rating of 104. Third that day was

Afleet Express (Afleet Alex), who turned the tables in the Travers while A

Little Warm wilted to fifth after racing four-wide around both turns. We feel A

Little Warm can avoid such a trip as he faces less than half the number of

starters he did in the Midsummer Derby, and 1 1/8 miles will probably be more to

his liking as well.

John Velazquez, who has been riding A Little Warm of late, committed to ride

MORNING LINE (Tiznow) before A Little Warm's intentions were known at entry

time. The Nick Zito trainee will be making his stakes debut in a tough spot, but

the lightly-raced colt is bred to run all day and exits an 11-length allowance

score at Saratoga. He has early foot, too, which could make him particularly

dangerous if he sets a modest pace. He's shown an ability to turn it on in the

stretch, recording recent BRIS Late Pace ratings of 105, 102, 104 and 100 this season,

so he's one to keep an eye on.

FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) has placed in his last five stakes appearances,

comprising the Travers, Haskell Invitational (G1), Belmont S. (G1), Preakness S.

(G1), and Blue Grass S. (G1). Trainer Dale Romans insists there's a big race

with his name on it, but this constant futility at reaching the winner's circle

leaves us with some doubts. We do believe he'll be prominently placed

throughout, and he's clearly shown an ability to hang on for a piece, but we

question whether he'll finally take a step forward and win one of these times.

We'll try and beat him.

EXHI (Maria's Mon), a synthetic specialist, showed an ability to handle dirt

at a high level when chasing Concord Point (Tapit) all the way around the

Mountaineer Park oval in the August 7 West Virginia Derby (G2). The Todd

Pletcher pupil took a good run at that favorite in the stretch, but could do no

better than claim runner-up honors in that lucrative test. While that was a good

performance, we still feel he's a cut below some of these on dirt.

We don't envision the pace of the Pennsylvania Derby being blazing fast,

which probably undercuts the chances of Withers S. (G3) winner AFLEET AGAIN (Afleet

Alex). He chugged up for fourth in the Travers, but seemed to outlast his other

rivals more than anything and wasn't hindered as much by wide moves around the

turns. A career best effort is needed to beat the top contenders.

SEVERE WEATHER (February Storm) is in for a rude awakening as the Penn

National-based colt would be a better fit against conditioned claimers. FRIEND

OR FOE (Friends Lake) reportedly will scratch from this spot in favor of next

week's Kelso H. (G2) at Belmont Park.