Preakness Report

PREAKNESS REPORT

MAY 8, 2008

by James Scully

BIG BROWN (Boundary) lived up to the hype -- and then some -- but his

spectacular Kentucky Derby (G1) victory was overshadowed by the unfortunate

breakdown of Eight Belles. That's not going to be the focus of this column, but I

will offer a couple of thoughts on the matter before concentrating on the Derby

winner.

Larry Jones, trainer of Eight Belles and one of the classiest individuals in

Thoroughbred racing, assured us that the track was safe at Churchill Downs on

Derby Day, and I take him at his word. Dr. Larry Bramlage, the on-call

veterinarian for the American Association of Equine Practitioners, was one of

the first to reach the filly after she broke down a quarter-mile past the finish

line, and he didn't believe that Eight Belles' injuries would've been prevented

on a artificial surface.

"I don't think the forces on her legs pulling up would be any different on

dirt or artificial surface," Bramlage said.

I understand the outcry for changes in the aftermath of such a tragedy, and

the synthetic debate is the most divisive topic in our sport today. If the

synthetic surfaces played like the dirt tracks they're replacing, I think it

would be an open-and-shut case. But that's clearly not the reality. The best

dirt horses too often are not the best horses on synthetic tracks, and vice

versa. We're replacing dirt tracks with different-playing surfaces in California

and elsewhere, and horses based over these synthetic tracks ran poorly when

switching to dirt in the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby.

Big Brown's victory continues to amaze me. Rating four-to-five lengths off

the pace for the first time in his brief career, he lost ground the entire way

before opening up on his rivals at the top of the stretch with a scintillating

turn of foot. The Richard Dutrow-trained colt became only the seventh unbeaten

Kentucky Derby winner in 134 years, and he's poised to make a serious run at the

Triple Crown. If that happens, Big Brown will join Seattle Slew as the only

undefeated Triple Crown winner.

At the same point in their careers, I think the comparison to Seattle Slew is

a good one. By 1977 standards, Slew was lightly raced entering the Derby, making

only three starts at two before being given the winter off by conditioner Billy

Turner, and the well-built colt didn't make his three-year-old debut until

March, winning a seven-furlong allowance at Hialeah. His next two preps were

essentially front-running walkovers, and Slew entered the Derby virtually

untested, having run away from his competition in the opening quarter-mile of

all his starts. A lot of people questioned whether the speedy colt would be able

to handle 1 1/4 miles, and others wondered how he would handle being hooked

early by the other front runners in the field. Slew answered all the questions

in resounding fashion.

He broke a step slow, got slammed by a rival next to him, and found himself

last in the 15-horse Derby field a couple of jumps out of the starting gate.

Slew quickly recovered and accelerated toward the front like he was shot out of

a cannon, dueling on a fast pace for the opening three-quarters of a mile before

drawing off. He cruised under the wire 1 3/4 lengths the best.

Similar to Big Brown, Slew did something for the first time in the Derby,

overcoming a less-than-perfect trip in which he didn't have everything his own

way on the front end. And like this year's also-rans, Slew's competition could

be viewed as weak. Runner-up Run Dusty Run was a nice horse entering the Triple

Crown series, but he never won another graded stakes afterward. Sanhedrin and

Get the Axe, the respective third- and fourth-place finishers behind Slew, never

won a stakes race in their entire career. Fifth-placer Steve's Friend never

accomplished anything after the Derby either. The final time was also criticized. Slew

ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:02 1/5 -- slower than Foolish Pleasure (2:02) and Bold

Forbes (2:01 3/5) in the years preceding him and Affirmed (2:01 1/5) in 1978.

Big Brown has been knocked for who he beat and how fast he finished. He took

25.26 seconds to run his final quarter-mile, stopping the teletimer in 2:01.82,

but don't be swayed by the raw data. It doesn't matter who the competition was

or how fast he ran. The bay colt performed brilliantly, dominating like a

Seattle Slew, and he has unlimited potential at this point in his career. With

only four starts to his credit, Big Brown owns room for improvement.

He'll first need to conquer next Saturday's Preakness (G1) at Pimlico, and

the two-week turnaround is a concern for the lightly raced colt. Big Brown could

get stuck in an inside post, break a step slow or face other unforeseen

circumstances, and all the other jockeys will be riding to beat him. The Triple

Crown is an extreme challenge, and it's going to take a special horse to snap

the 30-year run of futility. That's why I'm so excited about Big Brown -- he

looks as special as they come.

A much different cast of challengers is being assembled to face him at Old

Hilltop. So far, RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) is the only Derby runner who

will have a return engagement against Big Brown in the Preakness. Of the possible new Preakness shooters,

HARLEM ROCKER (Macho Uno) is the most intriguing.

Unbeaten in three starts, the Todd Pletcher pupil captured his career debut

at Gulfstream Park on February 14 and recorded a sharp score in an eight-furlong

allowance on March 30. Making his stakes debut in the one-mile Withers S. (G3)

at Aqueduct on April 26, the gray colt crushed the highly regarded J Be K

(Silver Deputy) by a widening 2 1/2 lengths. This is a similar pattern to

champion Bernardini, who recorded a 3 3/4-length win when making his stakes bow

in the 2006 Withers. Bernardini stretched out to two turns for the first time in

the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and posted a 5 1/4-length decision after Barbaro broke

down during the early stages of the race.

Harlem Rocker doesn't own the regal pedigree of a Bernardini, but he's got

the breeding to handle the 1 3/16-mile trip and deserves the opportunity to run

in the Preakness. His value would skyrocket with an upset over Big Brown.

We'll take a more in-depth look at the entire field next week.