Preakness Report

PREAKNESS REPORT

MAY 10, 2012

by James Scully

I'll Have Another and Bodemeister met for the first time in the

Kentucky Derby and these exciting colts appear likely to continue their rivalry

in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.

Before mentioning a couple of talking points for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness,

here are some quick thoughts on the Derby result:

* The Southern California prep races -- Santa Anita Derby, San Felipe

and Robert B. Lewis -- were strongest, producing the Kentucky Derby winner (I'll

Have Another), runner-up (Bodemeister), fifth-placer (Creative Cause) and

sixth-placer (Liaison).

* Post 19 benefited I'll Have Another while Post 4 turned out to be

disastrous for Union Rags; and being inside the rest of the speed did not

affect Bodemeister, who easily sped through wicked early splits of :22 1/5, :45

1/5 and 1:09 4/5 after breaking from post 6.

* Bodemeister was rolling on a speed-friendly track that produced track

record-setting performances in both sprints and routes over the weekend.

* The criticisms of I'll Have Another's Speed rating (98 BRIS) in the Santa

Anita Derby and doubts about his quality based upon the fact that he finished less than a length ahead of a massive

longshot were completely off base; the Speed number was negatively influenced by a slow

pace, which essentially led to a false performance from the 42-1 longshot. It

was a lightning-quick surface on Santa Anita Derby day, with

splits of :21 4/5, :44 1/5 and 1:07 3/5 two dirt races earlier on the program,

and the pacesetter in the Santa Anita Derby was lone speed setting moderate

internal fractions of :47 and 1:11. After being two lengths clear with only

three-eighths of a mile remaining, former claimer Blueskiesnrainbows managed to

remain in the frame while recording a non-threatening third, but it was

misleading; he would've never been close to the top two finishers (I'll Have

Another and Creative Cause) under a legitimate pace scenario.

* Third-placer Dullahan lost a ton of ground when forced to circle

extremely wide into the stretch and Went the Day Well got beat up during

the early stages before uncorking a dynamic late rally for fourth; both left

their supporters wondering what could've been with a better trip.

* The soft approach -- a one-turn allowance followed by a lone stakes

appearance in the Wood Memorial -- did not work for the previously unbeaten

Gemologist, who enjoyed a perfect trip before checking out of the action on

the far turn and retreating to 16th. It was easy to understand why Todd Pletcher

gave Uncle Mo a similar campaign last spring -- the two-year-old champion was

battling an undiagnosed liver problem -- but Gemologist, the 8-1 third choice in

the Kentucky Derby, did not thrive upon the light schedule (he recorded only one

half-mile workout in the 14 days leading up to the race). It will be interesting

to see if Pletcher keeps going back to this strategy.

Preakness points

With Hansen signed on, the post position draw will likely determine

the pacesetter as it did in the Derby. Bodemeister wound up committed to the

lead when Trinniberg and Hansen drew to his outside, but roles will be reversed

in the Preakness if Hansen draws inside.

The Derby winner could benefit once again from an ultra-quick pace that

softens up Bodemeister.

However, Bodemeister remains a threat to win on talent alone regardless of

the pace scenario.

Trainer Bob Baffert doesn't want Bodemeister to be a one-dimensional

speedball; he would love to sit to the outside of Hansen in second, with

Bodemeister waiting to strike when called upon. That is what happened with War

Emblem, who changed tactics after leading wire-to-wire in the 2002 Derby.

In the Preakness, War Emblem conceded the early advantage, racing up close in

second under a snug hold as Menacing Dennis showed the way through the opening

six furlongs. War Emblem advanced to the fore on the far turn and dominated the

rest of the way, bouncing forward into the Preakness like so many Derby winners

do.

Since the last Triple Crown sweep in 1978, 11 of the 30 Derby winners who

crossed the Preakness finish line wound up in the winner's circle. That's a 37

percent success rate. Baffert talks about it all the time: he didn't need to do

anything with Silver Charm, Real Quiet or War Emblem to get them to maintain

their form at Pimlico.

Trainer Doug O'Neill basically needs to stay out of his horse's way because

I'll Have Another is probably ready to fire another big shot off the two-week

rest.

I will preview the Preakness next Friday.