Preakness Report

PREAKNESS REPORT

MAY 8, 2014

by James Scully

California Chrome was visually impressive in Kentucky Derby 140, winning

convincingly, but his final time (2:03.66) left something to be desired. That

won't make any difference in him being an odds-on favorite in the 139th running

of the $1.5 million Preakness May 17.

Similar to Big Brown, who easily captured the 2008 Derby at 2.40 odds

(California Chrome was 2.50), California Chrome's price figures to be in the 1-5

range at Pimlico.

We'll come back to the Preakness below, but here are some of my thoughts on

the Derby:

Minimal effort: Once he established early positioning from the gate,

jockey Victor Espinoza was loaded the entire way, practically standing in the

saddle with a hammerlock through the opening seven-eighths of a mile. He only

asked California Chrome to run for less than three-eighths of a mile, gearing

him down well before the finish line.

Playing with fire?: I understand what Espinoza is doing -- trying to

save something in the latter stages -- and California Chrome readily began to shut it

down early in his last two wins, at least 10-to-15 yards from the wire. But

Espinoza isn't coming close to riding him through the finish line and runs the

risk of having California Chrome ease up too soon on the lead in a future race, believing it's over when there is

still plenty of ground to cover.

Low Speed fig: His 103 BRIS Speed rating is the second-lowest ever for

a Derby winner, with only 50-1 Giacomo (100) doing worse in 2005, but the slow

internal pace as well as his minimal effort contributed to the lower number. And

California Chrome already proved he could run fast in this year's prep races,

netting a field-best 106 for his Santa Anita Derby score.

Pace slowdown: A hot pace appeared probable after the opening

quarter-mile in 23.05 seconds, comparable to the first split the past two years

(:22.32 in '12; :22.57 in '13). But the front runners really slowed it down

entering the first turn, with the next two fractions of :47.37 and 1:11.80 being

about 10 lengths slower than 2013 (:45 and 1:09.80) and 2012 (:45.39 and

1:09.80). California Chrome came home in a moderate 26.21 seconds, but he was up

by five lengths with less than a furlong remaining and didn't try hard late.

Final mention of time: California Chrome's time was the slowest on a

fast track since Cannonade's 2:04 in 1974. Who held the dubious distinction

before him? That would be Alysheba, who needed 2:03 2/5 to post a hard-fought,

three-quarters of a length score in 1987. The slow time meant nothing as

Alysheba went on to add the Preakness and Super Derby, and recorded a nose

second in the Breeders' Cup Classic, en route to the Eclipse Award that season.

Best horse wins: It doesn't always turn out this way, but California

Chrome was clearly the best horse entering the race, turning in performances

earlier this year that rated heads-and-shoulders above the competition. He ran

to his previous form in the Kentucky Derby, dominating 18 rivals as he pleased.

Injury Void: Perhaps his top rival, Hoppertunity, was scratched last

Thursday due to a foot injury and California Chrome took advantage of a

landscape filled with defections from top prospects. Since the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile, New Year's Day, Shared Belief, Top Billing, Honor Code, Constitution

and Cairo Prince were also sidelined by physical issues. The good news is that,

with the exception of the retired New Year's Day, all of them are expected back

later this year.

Troubled trips: Topping my list is the interference Candy Boy

experienced entering the first turn, with Wicked Strong nearly taking Candy Boy

down as he angled left into his rival's path. Danza was knocked about three feet

sideways by Vinceremos shortly after passing the wire the first time and came

back in midstretch to dole out some trouble of his own, slamming into Medal

Count as Danza's jockey searched for running room. Calvin Borel made no attempt

to utilize Ride on Curlin's tactical speed, losing valuable ground as he guided

his mount diagonally in the early stages, and was forced to take a right turn in

the stretch after being repeatedly stymied down along the inside. There were a

number of other rough incidents during the race.

The focus now shifts to the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and nobody will be

surprised to see California Chrome prove best once again.

Orb proved to be an exception last year -- he was over the top after winning

in the slop at Churchill Downs, checking in a dull fourth as the 3-5 Preakness

favorite -- but most Derby winners hold their form on the two-week turnaround,

"bouncing forward" into the Preakness as Hall of Famer Bob Baffert describes it.

Since Affirmed recorded the last Triple Crown sweep in 1978, 12 horses

have completed the Derby-Preakness double only to be foiled in the 1 1/2-mile

Belmont Stakes. The final leg of the Triple Crown is a completely different

ballgame.

As of Wednesday, nine horses are considered possible for the Preakness. And

Ride On Curlin is the only member of the Derby field angling for a rematch. The

early cast includes Kentucky Oaks sixth-placer Ria Antonia, who may not be good

enough to win the Black-Eyed Susan for fillies a day earlier.

Social Inclusion, who missed the Derby due to a shortage in points, will add

some serious speed to the pace equation. Pable del Monte, who drew into the

Derby field from the also-eligible list but was withdrawn by his connections, is

another fresh face with early speed.

Ring Weekend skipped the Derby due to a fever and will contest the Preakness

if he works satisfactorily this weekend for Graham Motion.

Illinois Derby hero Dynamic Impact, a maiden winner two starts back at

Oaklawn Park on March 1, is an up-and-coming colt who will deserve respect on

the class hike. Federico Tesio victor Kid Cruz, a two-time stakes winner at

Pimlico, will be running late for trainer Linda Rice.

Bayern was on the early lead in his last two starts, finishing third in the

Arkansas Derby before being disqualified from a narrow first-place finish in the

Derby Trial, but I expect him to change tactics in the Preakness, looking to

establish positioning up close behind the early leaders. He probably gained a

lot from his first two stakes attempts and the talented colt could still have

plenty of upside for Baffert. He's intriguing to me at this stage.

I'll preview the Preakness in next week's edition.