Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

MAY 18, 2006

by James Scully

BARBARO (Dynaformer) will continue his quest for the Triple Crown in

Saturday's Preakness S. (G1), and his emphatic Kentucky Derby (G1) victory left

us anxiously awaiting his next performance. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness

presents new challenges -- can he reproduce his Kentucky Derby effort off a

two-week rest and run down BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) -- but exceptional horses

overcome obstacles. Six of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to

win at Pimlico, and Barbaro certainly has a lot going for him.

Fast and explosive, Barbaro is the most dominant Kentucky Derby winner in a

long, long time. Six-for-six in his career, he brings an aura of invincibility

with him every time he appears on the racetrack. Barbaro is also regally bred

with the pedigree to relish the 12-furlong distance of the Belmont S. (G1), so

the prospect of a Triple Crown winner is very tangible for the Thoroughbred

racing world. While it's easy to get caught up in the prospects of ending a

28-year Triple Crown drought, Barbaro must still get past Saturday unblemished.

He'll face two quality rivals in Brother Derek and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint). The Preakness offers a spot for

redemption following an uncharacteristic showing at Churchill Downs, and

both probably didn't give a true account of themselves last time. Afleet Alex,

Tabasco Cat, Hansel, Risen Star, Snow Chief and Gate Dancer are examples of

talented three-year-olds who took advantage of that opportunity following a subpar effort in the Kentucky Derby.

Barbaro must avoid regressing. He's never taken a step back in his career and

exits his best race by far. In his favor, the Kentucky Derby didn't appear too

grueling as he cruised through the stretch, never being seriously asked while

running one of the fastest final quarter-miles ever in the 132-year-old race. Trainer Michael Matz

did a superb job plotting his schedule this year to leave something in

the tank for the Preakness and Belmont, breaking modern-day conventions by

bringing him into the Kentucky Derby off more than a month layoff and with only

one start in the previous 13 weeks.

It's difficult to knock him, but we must still examine all possibilities. Barbaro is used to getting substantial periods of time between starts, having never

started without at least a five-week rest. Perhaps the short two-week hiatus

won't be to his liking off a monstrous performance at Churchill Downs. He captured both the Holy Bull S.

(G3) and Florida Derby (G1) by narrow margins (less than a length), defeating

Great Point (Point Given) and Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor), respectively. His 6

1/2-length Derby score blows those races away. The last two undefeated

Kentucky Derby winners, Smarty Jones and Seattle Slew, had crushed opponents in their prep races,

so the Kentucky

Derby didn't represent such a colossal improvement over their previous form. Barbaro

is a lightly campaigned three-year-old.

Brother Derek owns plenty of foundation, competing in the Breeders' Cup

Juvenile (G1) and defeating champion Stevie Wonderboy (Stephen Got Even) earlier this year,

and was flattered in defeat in the Kentucky Derby, coming again in the stretch

despite racing ridiculously wide and losing a shoe.

The multiple Grade 1 winner will make Barbaro come and

catch him with his speed, something that was impossible for him to do in the

Kentucky Derby, so the tables will be turned for this classy opponent. Sweetnorthernsaint has never beaten horses of the same caliber, but his BRIS

Speed ratings are outstanding and the Kentucky Derby may prove to be a throw out. He

had to work hard to reach a striking point that afternoon and came up empty.

With a more favorable trip in a shorter field, Sweetnorthernsaint might offer

the same explosive turn of foot on Saturday that marked his 9 1/4-length Illinois Derby (G2) win.

Despite the merits of these talented challengers, the general feeling of the

Preakness is easy to sum up -- if the same Barbaro shows up who won the Kentucky

Derby, the rest of the field is doomed. They're hoping to move forward while

Barbaro takes a step back. It should be fun to watch.

The Preakness won't offer much of a betting opportunity. I'll use Barbaro and

Brother Derek in Pick 3s and Pick 4s, and I hope to enjoy a great race.