Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

APRIL 20, 2005

by James Scully

AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) and BANDINI (Fusaichi Pegasus)

turned what appeared to be competitive editions of the Arkansas Derby (G2) and

Blue Grass S. (G1) last Saturday into runaway victories. Both greatly improved

their stock for the Kentucky Derby (G1) three weeks later.

Afleet Alex's stretch run was breathtaking. The Tim Ritchey

charge earned a 107 BRIS Speed rating for the eight-length triumph, but the bay

colt's 121 Late Pace rating tells the story. He quickly advanced four wide on

the far turn and appeared to be shot out of a cannon when straightening for

home, blistering to the wire with a final eighth in :11 4/5. A repeat

performance in the stretch at Churchill Downs will have Afleet Alex wearing the

Roses.

Things haven't gone smoothly this year for the bay colt.

Ritchey, who has never had a Kentucky Derby starter, originally planned to run

Afleet Alex only twice before this year's Kentucky Derby but had a change of

heart after talking to Billy Turner, who guided the only undefeated Triple Crown

winner, Seattle Slew. Afleet Alex made an unexpected seasonal bow in the

six-furlong Mountain Valley S. on March 5, winning easily by 2 3/4 lengths, and

then went to the Rebel S. (G3) two weeks later. He faded badly on the far turn

that afternoon to finish last in the six-horse field.

Jockey John Velazquez, who committed to ride Afleet Alex in the

Kentucky Derby over the winter, jumped ship following the Rebel and many felt

the bubble had burst on Afleet Alex's Kentucky Derby hopes. But a lung infection

was to blame for the colt's poor performance, and Afleet Alex quickly recovered

from the illness and trained forwardly for the Arkansas Derby.

"What a difference without a lung infection," Ritchey said.

"Alex ran the race I knew he could. And I guess he silenced the skeptics who

said he couldn't get two turns."

Oaklawn's leading rider, Jeremy Rose, regained the mount on

Afleet Alex in the Arkansas Derby and has earned the mount for the Kentucky

Derby, even though Afleet Alex's connections haven't confirmed anything yet.

Many feel BELLAMY ROAD's (Concerto) Wood Memorial (G1) was the

best performance by any Kentucky Derby contender this year, but he had

everything his own way on a speed-favoring Aqueduct strip that afternoon and

will face completely different circumstances in Louisville, Kentucky. Afleet

Alex turned in the most encouraging performance by any Kentucky Derby contender

I've seen this year, and Bandini's Blue Grass ranks a close second.

Mostly unknown entering 2005, Bandini captured his first two

starts at Gulfstream Park (maiden and allowance events) in wire-to-wire fashion,

but he was forced to rate when making his stakes bow in the Fountain of Youth S.

(G2) and his inexperience showed as the colt lost his focus leaving the far

turn. He still closed well late for second, and Bandini proved to be a much more

seasoned individual at Keeneland, relaxing beautifully in the early going and

moving on cue when asked by Velazquez on the final bend, effortlessly taking the

lead at the top of the stretch and racing to the finish line in a professional

manner. He earned a 109 Speed rating for the six-length win.

"He ran much better today than he did in the Fountain of Youth,"

Velazquez explained. "He learns from every race and this experience will teach

him even more. He is much more focused now."

Bandini gives trainer Todd Pletcher a legitimate chance at his

first Kentucky Derby victory.

Going back to the Arkansas Derby, FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor)

finished a fine second in his second stakes start after taking the Lane's End S.

(G2) at Turfway Park. The chestnut colt may be too lightly raced (only four

career starts) and his Speed ratings are still a little low (only one

triple-digit figure to his credit), but Flower Alley owns plenty of room for

improvement and could be much more of a factor in this division later in the summer.

ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Fusaichi Pegasus) barely got up in deep

stretch for third and could give trainer Nick Zito a fifth Derby starter, but

the stakes-winning colt hasn't finished well in his last two outings and will

need to improve significantly to challenge against Grade 1 company. Rebel winner

GREATER GOOD (Intidab) broke from post 10 and never got involved in the running,

breaking a three-race winning streak for trainer Bob Holthus with a fifth-place

finish. This looks like a good race to throw out for the classy ridgling, but

Greater Good doesn't have the pedigree for 10 furlongs and his Speed ratings

don't compare favorably to other top contenders.

In the Blue Grass, HIGH LIMIT (Maria's Mon) suffered his first

career defeat but still offered a commendable run for second. After never being

headed at any point of call in his first three starts, the Bobby Frankel-trained

colt sat off the speed in the Blue Grass and moved well between calls on the far

turn to take a brief lead before being passed by Bandini. High Limit stayed on

to be a clear second in what figures to be a great learning experience. His

first race of the year, the Louisiana Derby (G2), was a lot like the Wood in

that High Limit got to the lead and was never challenged in posting an easy win.

The bay colt got much more of a taste of the adversity he'll face in the

Kentucky Derby and should build upon the Blue Grass.

The Blue Grass was also the first real race of the year for SUN

KING (Charismatic), who failed the test with a fourth-place effort. However, Keeneland remains

a very quirky and different racing surface from Churchill Downs, and Sun King,

who was always wide and one-paced on Saturday, remains a threat to bounce back

with a much improved showing next time. The Zito trainee showed his class at two

and owns Speed figures of 107 and 106, but his second start this year in the

Tampa Bay Derby (G3), which was basically a public workout in wire-to-wire

manner, didn't do him any favors. Sun King needed a difficult race to toughen

him up for the Kentucky Derby, and he could be a live play at nice odds on Derby

Day.

CONSOLIDATOR (Storm Cat) did little to to dispute the negative

image of California-based three-year-olds this year with a fifth in the Blue

Grass. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee changed tactics, rating farther off the pace

than usual, with disastrous results, but we must remember that the Lukas-trained

Thunder Gulch ran terrible when rating in the 1995 Blue Grass and then bounced

to win the Kentucky Derby. However, history doesn't appear likely to repeat

itself. Consolidator will probably face serious pace pressure at Churchill, and

there are still legitimate questions surrounding his ability.

Saturday's Lexington S. (G2), which will feature ROCKPORT HARBOR

(Unbridled's Song), is the final serious prep for the Derby. We'll have

the opportunity to begin dissecting the big event next week.