Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

JUNE 8, 2005

by James Scully

Saturday's Belmont S. (G1) will have plenty of runners, but the 1 1/2-mile

contest lacks quality outside of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1)

winners. The other nine prospects are either unproven, slow or a combination of

both. AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) will probably be around 4-5 in the wagering, and

he probably wins easily.

But if an upset is to occur, REVERBERATE (Thunder

Gulch) and CHEKHOV (Pulpit) make for intriguing candidates. Both are promising

individuals with room for improvement, and they're the only Belmont entrants to

have earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating outside of Afleet Alex and GIACOMO

(Holy Bull).

Reverberate, who is by a Belmont winner and hails from an outstanding female

family, began to come around for trainer Sal Russo when finishing second to

Noble Causeway (Giant's Causeway) in a March allowance at Gulfstream Park and

captured his next start over allowance foes in a 1 1/16-mile event at Belmont,

earning a 103 Speed rating. Purchased for $400,000 as a yearling, the chestnut

set the pace in the nine-furlong Peter Pan (G2) before finishing a clear second

to the up-and-coming Oratory (Pulpit). Reverberate earned a 106 Speed figure

last time, recording a second consecutive century-topping BRIS Late Pace rating,

and owns the numbers to be a factor in the Belmont.

Chekhov still lacks seasoning, but he earned a 102 Speed and 114 Late Pace

rating when crushing maiden foes two starts back at Belmont and suffered a rough

beginning in the Peter Pan last out. He gained experience against stakes rivals

that afternoon and is eligible to improve significantly for conditioner Patrick

Biancone. A $3.3 million two-year-old in training acquisition, the lightly raced

colt could rally boldly through the stretch.

Giacomo must be mentioned in any discussion of contenders, but the one-run

closer will probably leave himself with too much to do once again. It's easy to

envision the gray colt offering another respectable finish for a share, but he

doesn't own strong Speed ratings (101, 100 and 100 in his last three starts) despite

his Kentucky Derby win and Preakness third-place finish. Giacomo remains a top

threat for the bottom of the exotics.

PINPOINT (Peaks and Valleys) figures to set the pace under John Velazquez but

won't get away to a clear advantage with Reverberate tracking in second. One of

three Nick Zito runners, Pinpoint hasn't run fast while defeating questionable

competition in his last two starts and has never been past 8 1/2 furlongs.

ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Fusaichi Pegasus) is a listed winner at Tampa Bay Downs, but

he's been no factor in three graded starts since and is unraced since finishing

eighth in the Kentucky Derby. The Zito trainee owns nice bloodlines, but

Andromeda's Hero hasn't shown much on the track.

INDY STORM (A.P. Indy) enters the Belmont off an encouraging performance for

Zito, a two-length entry-level allowance victory at Pimlico, but his previous

five attempts were all disappointing and he'll be sorely tested for class on

Saturday. The remaining contestants all have serious class concerns.

Afleet Alex looks difficult to beat. He earned a 112 Speed rating for his

remarkable Preakness performance, and the multiple Grade 1 victor can be placed

anywhere in the early stages of a race with his tactical speed, which is

important because one-run closers don't fare well in the Belmont and this year's

race will likely feature pedestrian early fractions. The bay colt also owns a

strong finishing kick. Opponents need Afleet Alex to have a bad day to have any

realistic chance.