Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

MARCH 22, 2006

by James Scully

Lawyer Ron is undefeated in three starts this year  (Jeff Coady/Horsephotos.com) Three of the four Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races on Saturday featured upsets. LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) saved chalk players with his three-length victory, but he was the only winner to not earn a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating. We'll start with the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park. A front-running winner in his previous four starts, Lawyer Ron surprisingly did not break sharply in the 1 1/16-mile event, settling into a clear fifth from his rail post entering the first turn. When a couple of rivals moved in front of him about midway around the bend, the chestnut colt became rank, tossing his head in apparent disgust at getting dirt kicked in his face, and dropped several more lengths off the pace. After jockey John McKee guided him to the outside early on the backstretch, Lawyer Ron put his head down and went about his business the rest of the way. He circled rivals on the far turn and entered the stretch about five wide with the lead. By this point, all the front runners were stopping, and closers wound up filling the top four positions. Lawyer Ron deserves credit. He's been visually impressive in all three starts this year, proved that he isn't a one-dimensional speedster by rating and appeared to gallop out strongly after the finish on Saturday. However, his 98 Speed rating left a bad taste. His domination over Midwestern counterparts brings back memories of Smarty Jones two years ago, but Smarty Jones recorded century-topping Speed ratings in all of his three-year-old starts, including a 109 for the Rebel. Lawyer Ron has been in the 90s in his last two performances. He will need to run faster against better company.

It's easy to knock the competition, but runner-up RED RAYMOND (Deputy

Commander) deserves some credit. Racing far back during the early stages, Red

Raymond inexplicably found trouble approaching the far turn, being squeezed back

out of tight spot to last. He continued to lope along in 10th before finally

finding his best stride into the stretch, passing everybody but the winner

inside the final furlong. A stablemate to Lawyer Ron in the Bob Holthus barn,

Red Raymond rallied to be a good third when making his seasonal bow in the

Southwest and earned a career best 105 BRIS Late Pace rating in the Rebel. The

one-run closer has raced behind slow paces in his last two outings (half-mile

splits in :47 3/5 for both the Rebel and Southwest) and may continue to show

more in upcoming starts.

Third placer STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude) offered a good run to reach contention

at the top of the stretch but could not carry his momentum forward. PRIVATE VOW

(Broken Vow) finished an awful seventh. It was obvious that he could've used a

race before the Rebel, but Steve Asmussen decided to keep his charge in the barn

until mid-March with only two preps before the Kentucky Derby. That's one of the

worst strategies in Thoroughbred racing over the past 10 years, doing in Point

Given and many other talented three-year-olds. Private Vow managed to avoid

quality rivals at two (excluding the BC Juvenile [G1] when his rein broke) and

wound up being exposed on Saturday. Don't be surprised if he rebounds with a

better effort next time out, but Private Vow is not going to have enough starts

to be ready for the Kentucky Derby.

The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) left many shaking their heads when 2-5

favorite BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) went down to defeat, but he simply ran into a

better horse on Saturday. DEPUTY GLITTERS (Deputy Commander) blew into the lead

leaving the far turn and rumbled through the stretch with powerful strides to

record his first stakes victory. Much improved since stretching out to a route

two starts back, the Tom Albertrani pupil established himself as a very

legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, registering a 106 Speed rating for the

convincing two-length score.

The winner sat a perfect trip in second before pouncing and came home

quickly. By the 1997 Travers (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

runner-up Deputy Commander, Deputy Glitters will probably be dismissed by many

observers as a fluke based on his previous form in one-turn events. That take

may prove to be very short-sighted. I loved the way he fought gamely when

finishing second to Bluegrass Cat in the Sam F. Davis S. two starts back and

continued to be impressed by the colt's development on Saturday.

Bluegrass Cat was in a little tight entering the first turn but settled into

a perfect stalking position in third along the backstretch. Approaching the far

turn, he was a half-length back of Deputy Glitters and moved with his rival

through the final turn until being outkicked near the top of the stretch. Once

he straightened for home, the Todd Pletcher trainee appeared to be in all kinds

of trouble, threatening to miss the top three as the announcer screamed

"Bluegrass Cat is under the whip and appears to be struggling." But Bluegrass

Cat wasn't done. He finally leveled off under John Velazquez with a strong late

surge to be a clear second, earning a 112 Late Pace rating to go with a

career-best 104 Speed rating. His Kentucky Derby supporters shouldn't be too

disappointed. In fact, the setback may help him in the long run. The Tampa Bay

Derby will serve as a valuable learning experience for the talented but lightly

tested colt.

The San Felipe S. (G2) produced a thrilling conclusion as A.P. WARRIOR

(A.P. Indy) withstood a stiff late challenge from POINT DETERMINED (Point Given)

to post a half-length decision. The winner received a career-best 101 Speed

rating, and new jockey Corey Nakatani didn't fight him early, allowing the dark

bay to settle into his own running position during the early stages. It seemed

like a battle of wills in previous starts when his former riders would take a

strong hold after the break and try to force the colt to rate off the pace. As a

result, A.P. Warrior failed to hit the board in his last two starts and was

transferred to trainer John Shirreffs prior to the San Felipe.

A.P. Warrior raced within striking range before launching his move on the far

turn and emerged into the stretch with a slight advantage. He displayed plenty

of moxie in holding off the runner-up and re-established himself as a Kentucky

Derby contender. With a tremendous pedigree for classic distances, A.P. Warrior

looks very dangerous all of a sudden. One concern is that his best races have

all come at Santa Anita (unplaced at Bay Meadows, Hollywood and Del Mar), but

now that he isn't being force-fed a lesson by his connections, A.P. Warrior may

continue to excel when shipping outside of Arcadia, California, after the April

8 Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Point Determined deserves kudos for a solid performance in his stakes debut.

The Bob Baffert trainee was headstrong early, chasing the pace in second through

the opening quarter-mile, but finally relaxed under a snug hold from jockey

Garrett Gomez and retreated to mid-pack. He rallied between foes in the stretch

to make a run at the winner, but came up a little short. The January maiden

winner earned his best Speed rating (100) to date and figures to keep improving

off this encouraging effort.

BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold) brought plenty of seasoning into the San

Felipe but did not pass the class test. A 4 1/2-length winner of the Sham S.

(G3) in his previous start, Bob and John was hammered down to even-money on

Saturday and looked like an imposing presence while leaving the far turn wide.

However, he lacked a kick through the lane and was fortunate to hold by a scant

nose for third. He's always had the look of a nice colt who could bloom into a

top three-year-old, but Saturday's performance raises serious doubts as to

whether he's good enough. Fourth placer RACKETEER (Awesome Again), a maiden

winner who had never been two turns, ran well in his first stakes attempt for

Bobby Frankel.

LIKE NOW (Jules) pulled off a huge upset at 36-1 when wiring his rivals in

the 1 1/16-mile Gotham S. (G3). Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the bay

gelding had never raced past six furlongs in six previous starts and essentially

stole the race when allowed to get the second quarter in :24 2/5 and third

quarter in :24 3/5 with an unopposed lead over the speed-favoring inner track at

Aqueduct. The fast, contested pace battle that appeared likely beforehand never

materialized. Like Now had to earn it with a fast finish, resulting in an

excellent 108 Speed rating, and I would never sell McLaughlin short when it

comes to training three-year-olds, but it's difficult to envision Like Now being

a serious factor when he stretches out in distance for the April 8 Wood Memorial

(G1).

KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) suffered his first defeat in the Gotham, but

turned in a commendable performance in his first attempt around two turns. The

speedy colt could've gone after Like Now entering the first turn, but Edgar

Prado took a hold of his mount, allowing Like Now to open up on the lead through

moderate early fractions while sitting chilly in second. Keyed Entry still had a

couple of lengths to make up turning for home and determinedly chased after the

winner the entire way to wire, cutting margin to a neck in the end. The winner

and runner-up both came home in good order, with Keyed Entry receiving another

superb Speed rating of 107.

Keyed Entry displayed the ability to rate for the first time, and the Gotham

marked only the fourth start in his career. He's got plenty of room for

improvement, but there are plenty of doubters in regards to his ability to get

10 furlongs. There's reason to believe he'll get 1 1/4 miles based on pedigree,

so I wouldn't count him out yet. We'll see how he fares when stretching out to

nine furlongs next time.

This Saturday, Turfway Park will host the $500,000 Lane's End S. (G2),

which will mark the stakes and two-turn debut for STRONG CONTENDER (Maria's

Mon). Two for two in his career for trainer John Ward, Strong Contender is

expected to face a big field over the Polytrack and will likely be odds-on.