Road to the Triple Crown

ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN

MARCH 29, 2006

by James Scully

The longest shot on the tote board, WITH A CITY (City Zip), captured

Saturday's Lane's End S. (G2) at Turfway Park. Off at 48-1, he was the

only member of the field at more than 25-1 and returned the biggest win mutuel

in the 34-year history of the event, $99.60. He'll be trained up to the Kentucky

Derby (G1) six weeks later.

With a City is the fourth straight upset winner in the Lane's End. Last year,

Flower Alley (Pulpit) entered the race with little hype, having just broke his

maiden in his previous start at Gulfstream Park, and succeeded at 10-1. He

developed into one of the best three-year-olds in the country, winning the

Travers S. (G1) and Jim Dandy S. (G2) before finishing an excellent second in

the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). In 2003, New York Hero upset his rivals at 14-1

when making his stakes debut in the Lane's End. He ran 29 times more times and

never captured another stakes race. In 2004, Sinister G (Matty G) surprised most

of the betting public at 16-1. He was never a factor again in graded stakes and

is now mostly uncompetitive in allowance/optional claiming races in New York.

With a City appears to have much more in common with New York Hero and

Sinister G than he does with Flower Alley. If Calder gives out a "Claimer of the

Year" award, he should be a top candidate for 2005. The chestnut colt earned his

first victory in a Calder maiden claiming race last May and returned to the

claiming ranks there last October, making four straight starts (two on dirt and

two on turf) at the $40,000 level. He didn't even run well in those spots at

first, compiling a 0-0-1 mark from his first three attempts before finally

succeeding at 8-1 in early December. That claiming win set him on the path

toward this year's Kentucky Derby.

The top five betting choices in the Lane's End failed to make any impact upon

the superfecta. Runner-up SEASIDE RETREAT (King Cugat) improved upon a

well-beaten fifth in the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs. Maiden winner

MALAMEEZE (Saint Ballado) came out of the clouds to get third following an

unplaced effort in the John Battaglia Memorial S., which turned out to be a key

race given With a City's eighth-place effort. Evangeline Downs shipper MORE THAN

REGAL (More Than Ready) was probably the least surprising with his

fourth-place effort. A maiden winner at Oaklawn Park two starts earlier, More

Than Regal had at least never proven himself to be a serious cut below what one

would expect from Grade 2 performers.

With a City earned a 101 BRIS Speed rating on Saturday. His previous career

best was a 91.

In terms of the Kentucky Derby, the biggest impact of the Lane's End came

when STRONG CONTENDER (Maria's Mon) was excluded from the field due to limited

earnings. This development had to catch Turfway officials by surprise because

nobody else saw it coming. Why would trainer John Ward put one of the most

talented three-year-olds in the country on a 20-hour van ride from South Florida

to Northern Kentucky if he thought there was any chance Strong Contender

wouldn't make the field? When Ward heard the surprising news, he sent Strong

Contender back to Gulfstream Park the next day. The horse had to endure a

whole lot of traveling for nothing, and Turfway was left without the advertised

star of their show.

The exclusion hurts the colt's chances of winning the Kentucky Derby. Strong

Contender is very light on experience, and no horse has even won the Kentucky

Derby with less than five career starts beforehand. With only one start in the

last 200+ days, Strong Contender needs races to be ready for 1 1/4 miles, and

Ward had two preps planned, the Lane's End and most likely the April 15 Blue

Grass S. (G1), before the Kentucky Derby. Now, he'll have to make do with only

one, the April 8 Wood Memorial (G1). That will leave Strong Contender with only

three career starts under his belt if he makes it to the starting gate at

Churchill Downs.

In Saturday's Rushaway S. at Turfway, HIGH COTTON (Dixie Union)

rebounded from a dreadful showing in his seasonal debut to post a wire-to-wire

victory. With the front runners all performing miserably in the Lane's End one

race later, the two stakes highlighted the bias-free nature of the Polytrack.

But just like in the Lane's End, previous form didn't mean a whole lot over the

chemically enhanced surface as the second, third and fourth-place finishers in

the Rushaway were all 30-1 or higher, generating a $537,175 superfecta. It will

be interesting to see if High Cotton can build upon his performance away from

the Polytrack.

The best three-year-old performance over the weekend belonged to DISCREET CAT

(Forestry) in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2). Sold to Godolphin following an

impressive debut score at Saratoga last August, Discreet Cat left a favorable

impression but didn't beat much when opening this year with an easy win at Nad

al Sheba on March 9. He distinguished himself on Saturday, defeating several

highly regarded rivals in smashing fashion, and his six-length victory left no

doubt that he is a horse to be reckoned with in the future if he stays healthy.

Despite all the accolades, Discreet Cat has raced only three times. That's

probably not enough to have him ready for the extreme task of the Kentucky

Derby. In fact, Simon Crisford, racing manager for Godolphin, labeled him prior

to the UAE Derby as "a little bit light-framed" and conceded that "he may turn

out to be a mile or even a seven-furlong horse" due to his natural speed.

Discreet Cat didn't display any distance limitations on Saturday. He gained

valuable seasoning and could be one of the favorites if his connections decide

to pursue the Run for the Roses. The Blue Grass or April 22 Lexington S. (G2)

would be the perfect springboard for the talented but lightly raced colt, but

Godolphin is too one-dimensional to provide Discreet Cat with another prep to

benefit him.

Their unflinching vision will not bend to any individual

horse.

"We've already decided he won't run in the Blue Grass Stakes or any other

American classic trial," Crisford told the Racing Post. "And the early thoughts

in our camp are that he'll either go for the Kentucky Derby without another run

or the Preakness (G1) without another run."

Good luck with that strategy.

This Saturday's Florida Derby (G1) will feature the much anticipated

return of BARBARO (Dynaformer), who hasn't run since winning the sloppy Holy

Bull S. (G3) on February 4. Trainer Michael Matz is utilizing an unconventional

approach toward the Kentucky Derby with only one start in the 13 weeks before

the race, but Barbaro still has much to prove since he's never raced over a fast

track. His main challengers include Fountain of Youth S. (G2) runner-up FLASHY

BULL (Holy Bull) and recent allowance winner SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado), who is a

full brother to multiple champion Ashado.