Saratoga Daily Notebook

SARATOGA DAILY NOTEBOOK

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 17, 2005

by Dick Powell

Nature beat nurture -- again!

Wednesday's 5TH race was a maiden special weight for juveniles going 5 1/2

furlongs. It had nine starters and all of them were first-time starters. A good

test for the nature over nurture theory that states that if given the choice,

you would rather have a first time starter bred to be precocious than a trainer

who has a high percentage of horses that win first time out. A horse who is not

bred to win first time out is less likely to win than a horse from a trainer who

doesn't do well first time out but has a quick pedigree.

The betting public immediately made Formal Appeal (Successful Appeal) a heavy

favorite and sent him off as the 7-10 favorite. By one of the hottest young

sires in the game and out of a speedy mare, he brought $750,000 in this year's

Fasig-Tipton Calder juvenile sale -- the highest price ever for an offspring of

Successful Appeal. Trainer Steve Asmussen is great first time out and Jerry

Bailey has been winning regularly on Asmussen's well-meant juveniles.

But, at those odds, Formal Appeal was a terrible bet and in last night's

diary I tabbed FABLED (Tale of the Cat), who is trained by Nick Zito. Tale of

the Cat is a fantastic win early sire, but Zito only wins 8 percent first time

out according to BRIS. However, Fabled had been training well here the past

month and with Gary Stevens in the irons, it looked to me like all systems were

go.

With Zito's record with firsters you don't want to bet one of them as the

favorite, but the public cooperated today by letting Fabled go off at 13.7-1. He

was dead on the board but with Zito you don't mind since you are looking for a

price.

The gate sprung and Fabled immediately was dead last after being bumped at

the start. He took a while to find his best stride and going 5 1/2 furlongs

things looked bleak. Formal Appeal was dueling with Unification (Dixie Union)

right from the start and they hit the top of the stretch together as a team.

Fabled was only ahead of one horse at that point, but Stevens swung him off the

rail for clear running room.

As they straightened away in the stretch, it looked like Fabled might be able

to get in the money as he kept passing horses and eventually there was only

Formal Appeal to get by. Despite lugging in and going from the far outside to

pressing Formal Appeal, who was up against the rail, Stevens was able to get up

in time and win it by a neck. Fabled paid $29.40 to win and keyed a $77.50

exacta over the favorite.

Nominations for the Travers S. (G1) were announced Wednesday and we could be

looking at a field as small as six. The first three finishers from the Jim Dandy

(G2) are expected to run in the 136th running, headed by Flower Alley (Distorted

Humor). Haskell (G1) winner Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) will be the betting

favorite for Bob Baffert and turned in a sensational half-mile workout of 45.98

on the main track Tuesday.

It will be interesting to see how the flighty son of the flighty Fusaichi

Pegasus handles the commotion not only in the paddock but in the detention barn

and the walkover for the race. With all the horses stabled for six hours in the

detention barn, they all come in through the picnic area on the way to be

saddled and Roman Ruler will get a major test of nerves. Tonya Terranova, who

always handles the Baffert horses when they come to New York, will probably

school him many times next week to get his nerves calmed down.

Two divisions of the Yaddo H. for New York-bred fillies and mares were run

today on the inner turf course. In the first division, the 7TH race, ON THE BUS

(Ghazi), who narrowly lost this race last year by a nose as the favorite, won

narrowly today by a head for leading rider Edgar Prado as the second choice in

the betting.

Prado is doing everything right and is pulling away in the rider standings.

He kept On the Bus off a contested early pace and had enough horse in the lane.

"We wanted to be close to the pace early, but when we saw those horses go

head to head on the lead, we held back a little and bought our time," Prado

said. "I couldn't have asked for a better trip than that: saving ground the

whole way and when I asked him, I took him outside. When he saw the other horse

- Finlandia (Royal Anthem) - he found another gear."

For trainer Dale Romans, it was sweet retribution for last year's defeat and

a tough campaign this year.

"Last year, we lost this race the same way we won this year," Romans said

after the race. "We're pleased with the outcome. She probably needed those first

two races. She got caught up in the quarantine barn with the 'strangles' and we

rushed her back. She also lost some training time, and it took her a while to

get into form. For now, we're going to keep her in New York and run against New

York-bred fillies on the grass."

In the second division, KATE WINSLET (Signal Tap), a stakes winner in Europe

last year who has been ambitiously spotted in 2005 by Rick Violette, proved

best. Very talented but very high-strung, she showed she could run with

state-bred mares on the turf two starts back in the Mount Vernon H. then ran

well over yielding turf at Delaware Park in her previous start.

"She's a real nervous filly and she came from Europe with a reputation that

she's hard to handle," said a relieved Violette. "We schooled the dickens out of

her; the key today was that she schooled in the paddock like a little cow pony.

She was terrific; usually, she is sopping wet in the paddock. She was in control

the entire race. She had the horse ahead of her measured, and Richie (Migliore)

tested her a couple of times to see if she could go. We might get brave with her

and step her up. This was a big effort for her, with the way she turned the

corner."

Besides Kate Winslet using her head for a change, Richie Migliore gave her

his normally heady ride. He tracked Irish Princess (Out of Place) early but did

not want to get into a kicker's race.

"I didn't want everyone to hold up and then sprint home because she can't do

that," Migliore said. "You can see that from the half-mile pole, I was letting

her march on and she kept coming. She's not a filly with a great turn of foot,

but she's the kind of filly that can keep going at a good, steady clip. She's

real handy and the inner turf course is made for a filly like her."

Kate Winslet's final time of 1:49.10 was almost a full second slower than On

the Bus' time of 1:48.19.

The less said about the 2ND race, the better. Only two of the nine starters

finished the steeplechase race. Very ugly.

One lucky player hit the Pick 6 today for $76,270.

Edgar Prado won two more races and now leads John Velazquez 26-21. Cornelio

Velasquez also won two on Wednesday, and Velazquez and Todd Pletcher were shut

out again. For Pletcher, who had 11 winners the first week, two the second and

only one the third, this can officially be called a slump. Rick Dutrow had

another winner today and now is tied for second in the trainer standing with

Asmussen at nine.

Horse to Watch

5TH - HIGH COTTON (Dixie Union) chased the pace while down on the inside and

held well for third and should be tough next time out for Pletcher.

7TH - BEEBE LAKE (Grand Slam) was sent to the front from her outside post and

was under heavy pressure every step of the way.

Thursday's Preview

4TH - In  this 5 1/2 furlong maiden special weight for juvenile fillies,

we'll go with BRUSHED BAYOU (Grand Slam) who is out of a stakes-winning dam who

won her career debut. Grand Slam also won his career debut and his dam was a

graded stakes winner. John Kimmel's stable has been doing well since Loretta

Lustig returned and he is good first time out.

9TH - The red-hot Rick Dutrow (9 for 17) sends out COLONIAL DRIVE (Cozy

Drive) off a good effort in his career debut at Belmont two months ago. He draws

well and gets Prado.