Tampa Bay Downs Notebook

TAMPA BAY DOWNS NOTEBOOK

JANUARY 15, 2013

by Bob Bauer

Conditions returned to normal last week at Tampa Bay Downs, which means

sunny, fast and firm. The moveable rail on the turf course was set at zero feet

on Wednesday and moved to the 12-foot setting for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Both courses appeared to be fair, runners who were prominent in the BRIS Prime

Power ratings took at least five races on Wednesday's card.

Early speed and pressers had the most success this past week, continuing a

trend that has been prevalent since the meeting began. Dirt sprints went mostly

to close-up pressers who made winning moves on or after the turn, although it is

always possible for a lone speed type to steal a race. Routes are usually won by

horses who show some ability on the BRIS last race Late Pace ratings. Early pace

types have done well, however, with many lasting for a minor award and a few

getting to the winner's circle. Much the same can be said for routes on the

grass. Handicappers need to pay close attention to the pace dynamics and

match-ups in both types of routes.

Saturday's highlight of the week was a pair of seven-furlong, $100,000 stakes

races for three-year-olds. The Gasparilla Stakes for fillies went to the 9-10

favorite, VITAMETA (Street Sense). The bay filly was close up early and held

well when headed in the stretch and came back to get the lead and hold off the

late charge of a 63-1 outsider. The splits were :22 1/5, :45, 1:10 1/5 and the

winning time was 1:23 4/5.

The crowd was correct once again in the Pasco Stakes for colts and geldings,

as the 3-5 Mark Casse-trained entry ran one-two. DYNAMIC SKY and SKY COMMANDER,

both Sky Mesa colts, outclassed the rest of the field. Dynamic Sky stopped the

teletimer in 1:22 3/5 after splits of :22 3/5, :45 1/5 and 1:09 4/5. We may see

this pair again, as the local preps for those with Triple Crown hopes are on the

horizon.

Bettors should note the high rate of winning favorites continues at the

Downs. This past week the chalk won 18 of 41 races, a 44 percent rate. At times

like this, one may be cashing many tickets, but not making much money. Brisnet

members may find a pair of articles available on the website to be helpful. The

first is "Identifying

Vulnerable Favorites Using Prime Power" by Tony Kelzenberg and can be found

in the Brisnet library. The second, "The

Curse of the Legitimate Favorite," is located in ALL-WAYS newsletter Number

30 from July 2003.

The jockey and trainers races are now well underway. Daniel Centeno leads the

pack with 26 victories, Angel Serpa is close-up with 21 and Fernando De La Cruz

completes the top trio having 18 winners.

America's top trainer last year, Jamie Ness, appears to be on the way to yet

another Tampa Bay Downs title. He already has a daylight lead in the

conditioner's contest, with 17 tallies from 41 starters, a 41 percent clip. Next

best is Gerald Bennett who has saddled 10 winners so far.

HORSES TO WATCH

Wednesday (1/9)

9TH -- KINGS TUESDAY (Indy King) overcame a difficult trip get up against

$16,000 claiming fillies and mares on the grass at 1 1/16 miles. The bay mare

was shuffled back after the start and raced near the back of the pack for six

furlongs, but moved inside into the stretch and slipped through along the rail

to nail the leader in the shadow of the wire. Seems to like it here, and the

drop to a claimer didn't hurt.

Friday (1/11)

6TH -- HOMESTEAD (Powerscourt) was in traffic and waited for racing room

inside through the far turn and came through on the rail to get the place versus

maidens on the lawn. This four-year old filly appears ready to graduate for

veteran Jonathan Sheppard, who is overdue for an appearance in the Tampa

winner's circle.

10TH -- BULERIA (Empire Maker) and FALCONESS (Forest Wildcat) were among

several runners that were impeded when a rival jumped a shadow and unseated her

rider in a five-furlong dash on the turf in a first-level allowance/$16,000

optional claimer. Both these fillies were taken up and had no chance. They fit

with this kind and come from good barns.

Saturday (1/12)

5TH -- SEEKING ROMANCE (Swain), another Jonathan Sheppard trainee, was boxed

and forced to wait for an opening on the turn and lost his momentum, checking in

eighth with first-level allowance runners. Can do better with a good trip.

8TH -- CINDYS CASINO (Strong Contender) outran her 63-1 odds and missed by a

neck in the Gasparilla Stakes despite a rough trip. The dark brown filly from

the William Downing stable was close up early and shuffled back on the turn

while pressing for the lead, settled in the stretch and came again late. She

anchored a $148 exacta with the 9-10 favorite and has run her best races with

jockey Antonio Gallardo in the irons.

Sunday (1/13)

6TH -- AFRICANIST (Johannesburg), a four-year-old colt, gave a good account

of himself in his first try against $16,000 non-winners-of three lifetime

claimers on the turf. Wearing blinkers for the first time, he was steadied in

traffic on the clubhouse turn and improved position on the backstretch, then

moved up on the far turn to the stretch and gained the place on the outside.

This one should score against this kind soon.