Thoroughbred Beat

THOROUGHBRED BEAT

OCTOBER 24, 2007

by James Scully

Ten points of interest in the Breeders' Cup

1 -- Pletcher Factor. With 11 horses in six events, Todd Pletcher

should be a serious factor in the 2007 Breeders' Cup, but we can't forget last

year's donut (zero-for-17 at Churchill Downs). The 40-year-old conditioner will

saddle top contenders in four races at Monmouth Park -- Turf (English Channel),

Classic (Lawyer Ron and Any Given Saturday), Distaff (Unbridled Belle, Indian

Vale and Octave) and Filly & Mare Turf (Wait a While and Honey Ryder) -- but his

stable has been cold at times in recent months (his five-year stranglehold on

the Saratoga training title finally came to an end). He's a lock for the Hall of

Fame as soon as he's eligible, but Pletcher is only two-for-41 in Breeders' Cup

races (4.9 percent win rate). Ironically, the Dallas native's two wins came in

his home state in 2004 at Lone Star Park. The pressure is on Pletcher this

weekend, and we'll see how his horses respond.

2 -- Baffert, Frankel and Zito. Just like Pletcher, these three

big-name conditioners have performed below expectations on Thoroughbred racing's

biggest day. Can any of them win a race this weekend? All three will send out at

least one top contender. Bob Baffert, who is three-for-44 (6.8 percent win) in

the Breeders' Cup, will send out two of the top betting choices in the Juvenile

Fillies (Indian Blessing and Cry and Catch Me) and the possible Sprint favorite

(Midnight Lute). Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel, who won't even be attending the

Breeders' Cup due to a sick dog at home, is four-for-68 (5.9 percent win) in the

Breeders' Cup and will be responsible for Ginger Punch, a multiple Grade 1

winner who merits serious respect in the Distaff. Nick Zito, a Hall of Fame

conditioner with a one-for-29 (3.4 percent win) Breeders' Cup mark, will send

out unbeaten Champagne S. (G1) winner War Pass in the Juvenile.

3 -- Oui Oui. Have you ever heard of Francois Parisel? He trains seven

Breeders' Cup horses, including a couple of major contenders, and we can't find

any stats on him over the last seven years. At least there won't be a language

barrier for the horses now under his care. The Frenchman follows another

Frenchman, Patrick Biancone, and the rider's French (Julien Leparoux), so there

will be no need for any translators. The stable is cold at Keeneland

(two-for-23 during October; Biancone was the leading trainer in April), but

Parisel has the stock to surprise in New Jersey.

4 -- Dylan Thomas. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner, DYLAN

THOMAS (Ire), is the biggest favorite on the Breeders' Cup morning line at 7-5, but

he'll have to negotiate three tight turns on the seven-furlong turf course at

Monmouth. No Arc winner has captured the 1 1/2-mile Turf, but that fact won't

stop Dylan Thomas. The four-year-old colt will be making his ninth start of the

season (5-3-0 so far with at least one start in every month from April onward), and

trainer Aidan O'Brien will deserve kudos if he pulls off this training feat.

Dylan Thomas is probably the most exciting horse on the program.

5 -- European influence. Dylan Thomas is the top raider, and Europe

will be well represented in all four turf events. Strike the Deal, Domestic Fund

(Ire) and Achill Island (Ire) head a strong trio in the Juvenile Turf; Passage

of Time (GB) is a major player in the Filly & Mare Turf; and Excellent Art (GB)

and Jeremy are two of the top three choices on the Mile morning line. European

invaders haven't been shut out in the Breeders' Cup since 1998 at Churchill

Downs.

6 -- Weather. Rain appears to be a factor over the next few days in

Oceanport, New Jersey, and it's difficult to imagine the turf being firm on

Saturday. That's a serious liability for a top contender in both the Mile and

Filly & Mare Turf. Owner Marty Wygod makes all the decisions surrounding Eddie

Read H. (G1) and Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) winner After Market, the

7-2 second choice on the Mile morning line, and surrogate conditioner John

Shirreffs said he thinks Wygod will scratch the colt with any moisture at all.

Champion Wait a While, who is trained by Todd Pletcher, also likes it firm. Her

status in the Filly & Mare Turf, in which she's the 4-1 third choice on the

morning line, is in doubt.

7 -- Speed. Will speed be carrying? The weather figures to play a key

role, and I'll be paying close attention to the speed on Saturday's undercard

(three listed stakes on the main track), with an eye toward catching a couple of

front-running longshots later in the afternoon.

8 -- Synthetic-to-dirt. Will the Polytrack or Cushion Track move up

horses switching to the dirt this weekend? Who knows, but the formula worked

last year for Street Sense, a resounding Juvenile winner who finished third to

inferior horses in his previous outing over Polytrack. There will be a lot more

horses making the move in 2007. Unbeaten Wicked Style, an impressive

winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last time, will make his dirt debut in

Saturday's Juvenile, and a slew of horses from the West Coast will be making

their first appearance on a traditional racetrack. Some will handle it, some

won't -- form isn't as important with Southern California shippers as it once

was. It's like going from dirt to turf the first time. Some horses can do it,

but you can't tell from their dirt attempts. It's the same thing for a Polytrack/Cushion

Track horse making his dirt debut. Next year, we'll have

East Coast dirt horses shipping to California to race over a synthetic track at

Santa Anita. Don't you love the confusion?

9 -- Jockeys. Mike Smith leads active jockeys with 10 wins in the

Breeders' Cup. Corey Nakatani is next with seven, and Frankie Dettori and John

Velazquez are tied with six. Kent Desormeaux (two-for-52), Victor Espinoza

(one-for-28) and Robby Albarado (zero-for-10) are a few cold riders hoping to

turn their fortunes around in 2007.

10 -- Chalk. The races are too well-matched, with few standouts on the

11-race program, for favorites to dominate. Don't get sucked into primarily

playing the chalk because there will be plenty of opportunities to cash on

mid-ranged and long-priced horses.

We'll review each category next week.