Three-Year-Old Diary

THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY

MAY 30, 2007

by James Scully

CURLIN (Smart Strike) and HARD SPUN (Danzig) are committed to the June 9

Belmont S. (G1), and a decision on STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) will be

announced Thursday. Championship honors are essentially on the line in the 1

1/2-mile "Test of Champions" as 20 of the previous 21 horses to win two-of-three

Triple Crown races, including the last nine, were named champion three-year-old.

Owner Jim Tafel and trainer Carl Nafzger will make it much easier for Curlin to gain

a huge advantage over his rival if Street Sense doesn't show up at Belmont Park.

A small field looks very possible. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (Wild Event), SLEW'S

TIZZY (Tiznow) and TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) are the only other horses considered

definite. The connections of SEDGEFIELD (Smart Strike) are thinking strongly

about the Belmont S. (G1), but Saturday's Ohio Derby (G2) remains an option. CIRCULAR

QUAY (Thunder Gulch), CHELOKEE (Cherokee Run) and the filly RAGS TO RICHES (A.P.

Indy) are also listed as possible, but don't expect to see the filly in the

Belmont.

Rags to Riches deserves the opportunity, but Todd Pletcher's top riders, John

Velazquez and Garrett Gomez, went ahead and committed their services to other

horses. The three-time Grade 1 winner earned a better BRIS Speed rating (109)

for her Kentucky Oaks (G1) romp than Street Sense did one day later in the Derby

(108), and did so off a two-month layoff. A half-sister to last year's Belmont

winner Jazil (Seeking the Gold), Rags to Riches is fresh with plenty of room for improvement. She's got

the talent and breeding to win the Belmont, and it only stands to reason that

Velazquez or Gomez would hold out for the opportunity to ride Rags to Riches if

there was a realistic chance for her participation.

Imawildandcrazyguy trailed in 20th through the opening seven furlongs in the

Kentucky Derby before launching a rally under Mark Guidry, passing horses

in the final quarter-mile. After being bet down to a surprising 28-1, he gave

fans wagering on him strictly because of the name a late thrill as he just

missed catching Curlin for third, settling for fourth-place honors. The Bill

Kaplan-trained gelding doesn't own a stakes win, finishing second in the Risen

Star S. (G3) and a juvenile stakes event at Calder, and we have to wonder

whether the Derby was an aberration. The one-run closer will have a tough time

making a serious impact in the Belmont.

Slew's Tizzy has improved in his last two outings for trainer Greg Fox,

winning the Lexington S. (G2) as the longest shot on the board before taking the

Lone Star Derby (G3) as the favorite, but he'll face a stiff class check in the

Belmont. Velazquez will replace Robby Albarado, who rides Curlin, in the saddle,

but Slew's Tizzy doesn't look fast enough to be a factor with Speed ratings of

96, 94 and 92 in his last three respective starts.

Tiago is a much more intriguing prospect. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby

(G1) at 29-1, the lightly raced colt experienced a rough trip at Churchill Downs

before rallying well for seventh. The half-brother to 2005 Derby winner Giacomo

galloped out strongly past the wire while making only his fifth career start,

and trainer John Shirreffs will ship him to Belmont Park this week in order to

get him acclimated to "Big Sandy." Tiago stormed past tiring leaders in the

stretch of the Santa Anita Derby, registering a 108 BRIS Late Pace number, and

the 12-furlong Belmont often turns into a race where the entire field is

struggling to make it to the finish line. He's eligible to keep moving forward

with a top three finish.

Sedgefield, who had never raced on dirt prior to the Derby, gave a good

account of himself when finishing fifth, but the chestnut colt still owns a

better pedigree for turf or Polytrack. Chelokee exits a nice score in the

Barbaro, but he didn't finish fast in the 1 1/16-mile event at Pimlico while

squaring off against four overmatched rivals. Out of a Silver Ghost (who

established a track record sprinting at Belmont) mare and by a champion

sprinter, it's difficult to imagine him relishing the additional ground in the

final leg of the Triple Crown. Circular Quay was no factor after receiving the

perfect set-up in the Preakness, and I'll label the one-run closer more

effective at shorter distances until he proves me wrong.

The spotlight will be on the big three if they all show up, and Hard Spun

will have the opportunity to turn the tables on his rivals without any other

serious speed in the field. However, Street Sense and Curlin are the main

contenders based on their victories in the Derby and Preakness S. (G1),

respectively, and a rubber match between the two will provide a big boost for

Thoroughbred racing despite the fact a Triple Crown isn't on the line.

I hope to be analyzing Street Sense's chances in next week's preview.