Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

DERBY FEATURE

MAY 3, 2011

Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

by Kellie Reilly

1. Dialed In -- The rallying winner of arguably the most competitive prep

this season, the Florida Derby (G1), fired a warning shot to his rivals with a

terrific half-mile work at Palm Meadows last Thursday. By blazing his final

furlong in :11 3/5 and finishing well clear of his workmate, the Nick Zito

trainee signaled that he'll enter the Kentucky Derby (G1) in razor-sharp form.

Some may question Zito's light work schedule for the colt, but the Hall of

Famer, and two-time Derby winner, knows how to tailor his training regimen to

suit a particular horse's needs. And so far, Zito's decision-making has proven

spot-on for Dialed In. The colt already has two 1 1/8-mile races under his belt,

and plenty of lengthy gallops to build up his stamina. 

Dialed In shipped to Churchill Downs Saturday, and on Sunday, confirmed his

well-being with an on-the-muscle jog over the track.

A late runner, Dialed In will need to get a sufficiently fast early pace, and

a clean passage among 19 rivals, to wear the roses. The first prerequisite

appears likely, with a few speedy types in the line-up. Although luck can't be

forecast, Dialed In has the gears to take the gaps as they come, and the

athleticism to maneuver in traffic. After all, Dialed In overcame a woefully

eventful trip to capture his career debut at Churchill Downs last November, and

defied a speed-favoring track at Gulfstream to win both the Holy Bull (G3) and

Florida Derby. He's yet to lose to a fellow three-year-old, with his lone loss

coming at the hands of an older stablemate.

2. Uncle Mo -- The champion juvenile colt of 2010 has put himself right back

in the game with encouraging works at Churchill in the past week for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Apparently over the gastro-intestinal malady that contributed to his shocking

loss in the Wood Memorial (G1), Mo is recovering his "big mo" as the Derby

approaches. Aside from his smooth five-furlong drills in company, he has been

galloping energetically, like a horse who wants to do more.

If Uncle Mo can recapture his scintillating two-year-old form in time, he'll

be difficult to beat. The ultra-talented colt was simply in a league of his own

last year, and capped his perfect season in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)

right here at Churchill. Naturally fast but also tractable, Uncle Mo stalked the

pace that day before accelerating brilliantly leaving the far turn, in what

might have been a sneak preview of Derby 137.

But there are concerns surrounding his three-year-old campaign so far. As

easily as Mo crushed his overmatched opponents in the Timely Writer at

Gulfstream Park, did he get enough out of that one-turn mile? He has raced only

once since, in the Wood Memorial, where Mo very uncharacteristically didn't draw

off on cue and suffered his only career loss. Compromised by his illness, he was

entitled to have run much worse than he did in third, and surely gained fitness

from the 1 1/8-mile contest. But has he had enough time to reach his peak after

that illness? Setbacks, even minor ones, in the lead-up to the Derby are usually

costly. 

Some may quibble about his pedigree for the Derby distance, but he stands to

inherit sufficient stamina from his maternal side, especially his dam's sire

Arch. With his raw ability, and his tactical sense to work out the best trip as

the race unfolds, Uncle Mo rates as a premier contender. 

3. Archarcharch -- The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner confirmed his status as a

top threat with a smashing work at Churchill Friday, blitzing five furlongs in a

bullet :59 2/5 while leaving his workmate struggling in his wake. Despite having

a distance-oriented pedigree, Archarcharch has displayed high speed in his prior

races as well as during training hours -- a tell-tale sign of a serious runner.

Indeed, Archarcharch broke his maiden in a six-furlong stakes, and was agile

enough to engineer a winning trip in a roughly-run Southwest S. (G3). He's also

been fairly consistent, with legitimate excuses for the couple of times he

hasn't run up to par. Better when allowed to settle off the pace than chase

early, he figures to bide his time no worse than midpack, and unleash a strong

bid into contention on the turn, just at the point where most Derbies are won.

4. Toby's Corner -- The Wood Memorial (G1) winner ranks as the first of two

contenders from the Graham Motion barn. Toby's Corner just returned to the

worktab Sunday and posted the same kind of move as before the Wood, breezing six

furlongs on the all-weather training track at Fair Hill.

The well-regarded but still-learning colt looked very inexperienced, gawking

around and running greenly, when capturing the Whirlaway at Aqueduct in

February. After his disappointing third in the Gotham S. (G3), Motion decided to

add blinkers for the Wood, and Toby's Corner clearly gained focus. He overcame

traffic trouble to slice through the field in a professional manner. A similar

performance on Derby Day would propel him right into the thick of things.

5. Soldat -- The Fountain of Youth (G2) romper has been training forwardly

since disappointing in fifth in the Florida Derby. That's the only time in his

eight-race career that he's finished out of the top two, an effort that was too

poor to be true and worth completely dismissing.

The reason for his subpar showing was likely the tactics. Previously this

winter, the Kiaran McLaughlin pupil had dominated in front-running fashion, but

when held up off the pace in the Florida Derby, he never got involved. Soldat

figures to make more use of his tactical speed at Churchill Downs to garner good

early position, just as he had in his excellent performances on the grass as a

juvenile. If so, he'll get first run on the closers and could be dangerous,

especially on a sloppy track.

6. Mucho Macho Man -- An unlucky third as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby (G2),

this game and genuine colt always tries his best, and such a willing attitude

can take him a long way. Indeed, Mucho Macho Man's actual third birthday isn't

until June 15, so the tall colt has been an overachiever to accomplish so much

at this point.

Runner-up to the now-sidelined To Honor and Serve in the Nashua S. (G2) and

Remsen S. (G2) last fall, Mucho Macho Man broke through with a good-looking win

in the Risen Star S. (G2) in February. His chances in the Louisiana Derby were

hampered right out of the gate, when he lost a shoe and tore out a chunk of his hoof.

Ever since then, he has been turning in stiff drills like clockwork for Kathy

Ritvo, who aims to become the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winner.

7. Nehro -- Rapidly-improving colt was a hard-charging runner-up in both the

Arkansas Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2), falling a neck shy of the prize in

each. The Steve Asmussen trainee was outmoved by Archarcharch on the turn in

Arkansas, and can't afford to let that happen again.

By Mineshaft, the same sire as Dialed In, Nehro tends to have a similar

late-running style. One notable difference, however, is that Dialed In broke his

maiden first time out at two. Nehro just broke his maiden in February, in his

third try, and has been on a steeper learning curve.

8. Animal Kingdom -- Motion's second candidate has yet to race on dirt, but

moves up in the rankings this week after an impressive work on the Churchill

surface on Saturday. Powering through six furlongs in a brisk 1:13, the

stoutly-bred chestnut drew right away from his workmate and kept up his

relentless gallop-out through seven furlongs in 1:26 2/5.

Animal Kingdom has performed at a high level on turf and synthetic tracks. A

troubled runner-up in his only two losses, he is a little unfortunate not to be

unbeaten. Animal Kingdom earned his way into the Derby field with an emphatic

score in the Spiral (G3) on Polytrack, and his stock rose when Spiral third Twinspired

returned to miss by a whisker in the Blue Grass (G1).

9. Stay Thirsty -- Uncle Mo's stablemate cracks the Top 10 this week after

three strong works at Churchill, crowned by Sunday's move in which he matched

strides with the champion virtually all the way. Pletcher hailed Stay Thirsty's

drill as his best-ever, and it's not difficult to see him as the stealthy

contender who's getting good at the right time.

Nor is Stay Thirsty a new kid on the block. He's been on the Derby radar

screen since last summer, when he finished a better-than-appears second in the

Hopeful S. (G1) at an unsuitably short distance for a horse with his classic

pedigree. Attempting the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) off a two-month layoff, he

couldn't hold a candle to Mo and tired to fifth. Stay Thirsty showed his true

colors in his 2011 debut in the Gotham S. (G3), dusting next-out Wood Memorial

winner Toby's Corner. Like Soldat, his flop in the Florida Derby can be

forgiven; in his case, he didn't acclimate well when returning from wintry New

York to the tropical heat of Florida. As his sharp work pattern indicates, Stay

Thirsty is happy to be in Louisville.

10. Master of Hounds -- Irish shipper retains his toehold in the rankings,

pending how he comports himself upon his arrival at Churchill. On paper, the

Aidan O'Brien trainee warrants considerable respect, but he'll have the toughest

kind of introduction to dirt racing.

The royally-bred colt, who held his own against strong company as a juvenile

in Ireland, is already a seasoned world traveler. He's been to Churchill before,

checking in sixth after a poor trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), and

he reappeared in Dubai, running a monster race in the U.A.E. Derby (G2) and

looking like the surefire winner until the wire. That was an exceptional

performance in his first start back for O'Brien, whose runners can be expected

to improve a fair amount second time out. If he ships wells, and makes a good

appearance on the track, this wild card can't be discounted.