Turf Diary

TURF DIARY

JULY 22, 2008

by Kellie Reilly

Like any episode of serious historic importance, Horse of the Year CURLIN's

(Smart Strike) unsuccessful turf debut in the July 12 Man o' War S. (G1) has

lent

itself to various interpretations. One can take the bare result literally, at

face value, as a conclusive argument against future turf sorties, especially an

ambitious bid for the October 5 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1).

Alternatively, one can take into account mitigating factors and extenuating

circumstances that put his runner-up effort behind English invader RED ROCKS

(Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) in a more encouraging light. We'll label these two schools

of Curlin historiography the "narrow interpretation" and the "expansive

interpretation."

The narrow interpretation focuses upon the fact that Curlin was under a drive

approaching the far turn, made hard work of even getting into contention, and

was simply outkicked by Red Rocks through the final furlong at Belmont Park. In other words, we

did not see the real Curlin that we know and love from the dirt. Presumably, if

Curlin were as good on the grass as he is on the dirt, he should have cruised up

on his own authority and galloped his rivals into submission. Compounding his

defeat, in this view, is the contention that Red Rocks is a notch or

two below the best in Europe. As a result, based upon the twin premises that Curlin

is iffy on the turf, and Red Rocks is no world-beater, the inescapable

conclusion follows that Curlin should forget about facing a much tougher cavalry

squadron in the Arc.

The expansive interpretation cannot quibble with the facts of the case. By

looking at those facts from a wider angle, however, it questions whether they

actually prove anything at all about Curlin's true level of ability on the turf.

First and foremost, Curlin hit the gate at the start and lost several lengths

straightaway, conceding absolutely vital early position to Red Rocks. Indeed,

given the way the race unfolded, with the trailblazing pair of SUDAN

(Ire) (Peintre Celebre) and MISSION APPROVED (With Approval) running off

like scalded cats through testing fractions, Red Rocks was settled in exactly the right spot in

third -- about 10 lengths behind the suicide pact, but a crucial three or four

lengths ahead of Curlin in fourth. The early tactical advantage surely lay with

Red Rocks, who would be first on the premises when the speed merchants

inevitably folded, and the first to capitalize on their destruction.

The second tipping point came during the fifth quarter-mile, essentially the

far turn and upper stretch. While Red Rocks was gaining on the

pacesetters, Curlin was reeling off his fifth quarter in approximately :23 1/5, just to narrow

his pre-existing gap with Red Rocks to one length. Moreover, Curlin was wide on the turn,

losing ground throughout this strong rally. By midstretch, Curlin was third,

very much in the thick of things, and seemingly leveling off for a battle with

Red Rocks, but it never came. Red Rocks produced a terrific late spurt, going

the 11th and final furlong in about :11 3/5, to pull one additional length clear

of Curlin, and cross the wire a total of two lengths in front.

Had Red Rocks and Curlin been racing as a team early, and Red Rocks just left

him in his wake, that would be one thing. But because of his tardy break, and

the bizarre pace scenario, far removed from the normal variety of turf

experience, Curlin had to accelerate sharply just to get into position. What if Curlin

had been able to deploy that blitz while on more equitable terms entering the stretch? Because the afterburners had to be cranked up

early to erase the deficit,

though, Curlin could not sustain that frenetic burst through the final furlong, and Red

Rocks came out looking the stronger of the pair. If their early positions had

been reversed, and Curlin had been in the catbird seat, the result could well

have been different. Even so, Curlin actually earned a higher BRIS Late Pace figure

than Red Rocks did (97 versus 95).

The third key to the expansive interpretation is that Red Rocks is no slouch.

To be sure, he has been found wanting in the major prizes in Europe, while

still placing in such exalted affairs as the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) and St

Leger (Eng-G1). On the other hand, it's every bit as true that he tends to perform much better in

American conditions, as his stirring victory in the 2006 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)

attests. Nor can this success be ascribed to mere class relief on this side of

the pond. Red Rocks would not have troubled the likes of Hurricane Run (Ire) or

Scorpion (Ire) in Europe, but he crushed them both in that Breeders' Cup, where

he benefited from another very fast pace set-up. Whether it's our flatter,

(generally) firmer courses, or the legality of Lasix, Red Rocks enjoys himself

here, and he accordingly performs at a higher level. To sum up, he doesn't

merely run up to his European form in America -- he typically exceeds it. So the

plan to keep him here, turn him over to Mark Hennig, and point for the August 16

Sword Dancer Invitational (G1) at Saratoga makes sense. Let's just hope that he

settles in well with Hennig and doesn't suffer the dreaded Euro-bounce.

The fourth item to note about Curlin's effort is that he finished

a half-length ahead of the grand old BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man), hero

of the 2004 Turf, who was rolling late after strolling in last early. If Red Rocks had stayed home in England, the story of the Man

o' War would have been

"Curlin beats Breeders' Cup Turf winner." The fifth, and final, point is that

Curlin has a penchant for improving the second time he does something -- being

outdueled in the Belmont S. (G1) in his first tour of Big Sandy, but later prevailing in the Jockey Club Gold

Cup S. (G1); disappointing in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth, but eventually

romping in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at that venue. Trainer Steve Asmussen

explained that pattern was the reason for going to Dubai early, so that he could

have a prep race in advance of the March 29 World Cup (UAE-G1), and that plan

worked to perfection.

So which interpretation is more persuasive? The narrow view is right in one

respect, that Curlin's showing in the Man o' War did not measure up to the level

of performance required in the Arc. It fails, however, to take into account the

peculiarities of the Man o' War, and Curlin's capacity for improvement. Taking

the expansive view, is there any credible reason to suggest that he won't take a

step forward next time on the grass, possibly even a giant leap? At the very

least, he'll probably break in good order and secure a better early position,

thereby offering a more realistic appraisal of his turf prowess. I'm hoping that

he will get another chance to answer the burning question himself, for the Man

o' War was inconclusive -- not brilliant, but a respectable debut on the surface

nonetheless.

Star performers: By definition, Red Rocks merits the star tag for

beating Curlin, but we must hand out a second gold star to reigning Breeders'

Cup Mile (G1) hero KIP DEVILLE (Kipling), who keeps going from strength

to strength. The Richard Dutrow charge used the July 13 Poker H. (G3) as a

glorified workout, to "give him something to do," as the trainer put it, between

his successful title defense in the April 11 Maker's Mark Mile (G1) and his next

engagement in the September 7 Woodbine Mile (Can-G1). Kip Deville definitely

needed something to do, for he could not have finished much faster, or powered

home any more impressively. Outclassing his four opponents at Belmont Park, the

gray exploded through his final quarter in :22 3/5 while stretching 2 3/4

lengths clear.

Even more significant, the Poker showcased a mentally mature, consummately

professional Kip Deville, illustrating just how far he's come from his old

headstrong days. Razor-sharp from the gate, the Oklahoma-bred strolled through a

tepid opening quarter of :24 1/5. When a rival slipped through along the rail to

take charge, the older, wiser, mellower Kip did not get all keyed up, as his

younger incarnation would have done. Instead, Kip was content to travel well

under a snug hold, all the while looking like a tightly wound spring about to

uncoil. The stretch run of the Poker was a thing of beauty, and it reiterated

Kip's status as the premier miler in North America.

On the upswing: The BC Mile division has been bolstered by the

upwardly mobile MONZANTE (Maria's Mon), who stormed home from a seemingly

unpromising position to win Sunday's 1 1/8-mile Eddie Read H. (G1) in stunning

fashion. Last in the six-horse field from flagfall to midstretch, reserved off

only moderate fractions, the Mike Mitchell-trained gray smoked his final furlong

in :10 4/5 to nail WHATSTHESCRIPT (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) in the shadow of

the Del Mar wire. To borrow a Trevor Denman phrase, it was as if Monzante had

"sprouted wings." Furthermore, he took the overland route into the stretch, and

according to the Trakus data, covered more territory than anyone else in the

race -- most notably, 41 feet more than Whatsthescript.

This was a superb performance from Monzante, for the highly regarded

Whatsthescript ran just about the same race that he did when capturing the June

28 American H. (G2) at Hollywood. In the American, "Script" was full of run when

caught in traffic turning for home, knifed between rivals to launch his

challenge and lengthened stride beautifully en route to a very sharp score over

STORM MILITARY (Arg) (Bernstein). In the Eddie Read, Script was likewise

brimming with energy on the far turn, got the split (a bit earlier this time)

and seized command. Although he didn't look to be extending as well on the Del

Mar grass, while clinging to his left lead, he still rattled off his ninth

furlong in :11 2/5, and again finished ahead of Storm Military. With the top two

from the American running second and third in the Eddie Read, Monzante's form

looks rock solid.

Like DAYTONA (Ire) (Indian Ridge), who is getting a midsummer break after his

uncharacteristic sixth in the American, Monzante is a cast-off from a top-notch

operation. Daytona was culled from Sheikh Mohammed's Darley banner, while

Monzante was cut from Prince Khalid Abdulla's Juddmonte Farms roster after

failing to make the grade in England last year. Curiously, however, Monzante

must have shown his original connections some talent, for he was an early

nominee to our Triple Crown in 2007. That, in conjunction with the type of

company he was keeping in England, separates him from the garden variety

Mitchell rehab project.

Prepping for Arlington: At this writing, the Eddie Read is

unlikely to produce any contenders for the August 9 Arlington Million (G1), but

a pair of explicit preps for the Chicago showpiece were staged recently. The more

significant was the July 4 Firecracker H. (G2) at Churchill Downs, where

EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) got the perfect tune-up, albeit in defeat. The

Helen Pitts trainee was always going to find it tricky to catch a

loose-on-the-lead THORN SONG (Unbridled's Song) on yielding turf at a flat mile.

Add in Einstein's 124-pound impost (six pounds more than Thorn Song), and

traffic problems at a terribly inconvenient moment at the top of the stretch,

and his task got exponentially more difficult. Indeed, once Einstein was

shuffled back to fourth in midstretch, things looked dire. Despite the deck

being stacked against him, he regrouped and finished strongly to grab second,

beaten a grand total of one length. This loss should not be held against him.

In the July 12 Arlington H. (G3), STREAM CAT (Black Minnaloushe) rudely

dethroned two-time defending champion COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid), who had things

his own way on the front end but was simply blown away by 3 3/4 lengths late.

Stream Cat had flashed talent at times for Patrick Biancone, and he put it all

together in this smashing debut for Rusty Arnold, which was also his first start

since October. Although the Arlington was contested at the same course and

distance as the upcoming Million, it's not certain to hold that many clues for

the marquee event. The turf was downright soft, and Cosmonaut may have been

tired from an unexpected hitch in his travel plans, enduring a 16-hour-long van

ride when his flight did not go. In any event, it was unlike him to give way

without a fight. As far as Stream Cat is concerned, he ran such a monstrously

good race in his reappearance that it's at least debatable whether he could

regress if he comes back in four weeks. Given his affinity for synthetic

surfaces, his connections are also mulling the August 24 Pacific Classic (G1) at

Del Mar.

Sophomores on the march: Also at Arlington on July 12, the confirmed

front runner TIZDEJAVU (Tiznow) continued his relentless progress with a 2

1/4-length score in the American Derby (G2), which was a pretty weak event

except for the winner. A perfect three-for-three on the grass, the Greg Fox

pupil had captured the May 2 Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) and romped in the

June 14 Jefferson Cup S. (G2), both at Churchill. So far he's had the luxury of

clear leads through steady, or even pedestrian, fractions. Until he is tested up

front, or shows an ability to rate, we won't be able to gauge his real merit.

One way or another, that test should come in the Secretariat S. (G1) on Million

Day.

A much deeper Secretariat prep was this past Saturday's Virginia Derby (G2).

GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat) had already shown push-button acceleration as a

juvenile, and again in his blistering three-year-old bow in the June 6 Hill

Prince S. (G3), but we had not gotten the measure of his heart -- until now. In

an old-fashioned dogfight with COURT VISION (Gulch) throughout the final

furlong, Gio Ponti dug down deep to win by the tip of his nostril. Both colts

performed honorably in a real tussle that involved brushing on the far turn and

again in the waning yards. The pair surged 2 1/4 lengths clear of SAILOR'S CAP

(Distant View), who was dispatched as the 6-5 choice after destroying the field,

including Court Vision, in the June 21 Colonial Turf Cup S. (G3) on soft ground. 

Court Vision was arguably a trifle unlucky Saturday, in that Gio Ponti got

first run while hemming him in, but counterbalancing that, Gio Ponti had raced

wide throughout and covered more ground than his adversary. The royally bred

Court Vision, a one-time Kentucky Derby (G1) contender who trudged home 13th in

the Run for the Roses, is the latest in a series of colts who have transformed

classic disappointment into a promising career on the turf.

Upset artist: PRESIOUS PASSION (Royal Anthem) is rapidly earning the

title of professional upsetter. First it was the 2006 Jersey Derby at 10-1. In

2007, he captured the Cliff Hanger S. (G3) at that same price, and three starts

later, shocked the W.L. McKnight H. (G2) at 67-1. This past April, the Mary

Hartmann charge wired the Pan American H. (G3) as a 20-1 shot. Once again

overlooked at nearly 14-1 in the July 5 United Nations S. (G1), Presious Passion

was allowed to dictate a slow pace, and he took full advantage to hold off the

closing STRIKE A DEAL (Smart Strike) by a neck. I'm as guilty as anyone of

underestimating Presious Passion, who had not even garnered a mention in my

first two Turf Diaries, but it's at last clear that he warrants respect in these

marathons. Having admitted that much, I still can't envision his coping with the

big guns, who were noticeably absent from the United Nations.

Of course, there was one who was supposed to be a big gun in the UN, but

even-money favorite CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (Danehill) never fired a shot and

checked in sixth. The pace scenario is not a viable excuse, for other closers at

least managed to improve their position. It would have been too boring to give

him the dubious "Missing the mark" designation for the third straight edition,

so we'll just express our disapproval by saying that it's back to the drawing

board for him.

I wonder if Bobby Frankel, with the benefit of hindsight, regrets that he

didn't run Sudan in the UN. Sudan was a commendable fourth in the Man o' War

after that pace imbroglio, and the UN would have unfolded much better for him.

On the horizon: The next issue will preview the likely fields for the

Arlington Million and Secretariat.