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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 10, 2009 by Dick Powell A great weekend of racing was highlighted by a fantastic victory by SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) in the Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) at Sandown that should make him the early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Beaten in his first start last July at The Curragh in Ireland, Sea the Stars came back to break his maiden at Leopardstown, leaving future multiple group stakes-winning Vocalised (Vindication) in his wake. Next out was a sharp win in the Beresford S. (Ire-G2) going a mile that made him one of the favorites for this year's Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1). The 2009 Two Thousand Guineas was one of the most competitive in years with a strong and deep field, and Sea the Stars was sent off at 8-1 odds. Run over good-to-firm ground, Sea the Stars used his natural speed to gain early position and was easily able to hold off the closers after taking the lead with two furlongs to run. To show you how hard the Two Thousand Guineas was this year, fifth-place finisher Mastercraftsman (Danehill Dancer) came right back to win the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and the St. James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) in his next two starts, and 12th-placer Lord Shanakill (Speightstown) won the Prix Jean Prat (Fr-G1) at Chantilly on Sunday. It's one thing to be the dominant three-year-old miler in Europe, but it's another thing to win the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) going a mile and a half under testing conditions. Sea the Stars' sire, Cape Cross (Green Desert), was a champion miler whose best offspring so far has been the great racemare Ouija Board (GB). But any questions about Sea the Stars' ability to handle 12 furlongs were answered by his dam, the great racemare and broodmare Urban Sea (Miswaki). Not only did Urban Sea win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) going 12 furlongs under testing conditions at Longchamp, but she is the dam of the great Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), who won the Epsom and Irish Derbies as well as the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) -- all at 12 furlongs. Sea the Stars has speed but is not headstrong, and Mick Kinane used it masterfully to make his move at Epsom before anyone else could. Benefiting from ground that was on the firm side, he easily held off a quartet of runners from Aidan O'Brien by almost two lengths. Usually, Epsom Derby winners are pointed for the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) at the end of June, but trainer John Oxx wanted to keep his options open in case the ground came up soft at The Curragh. Sure enough, rain hit Ireland in the days before the race and Oxx withdrew Sea the Stars. He could have won the race on sheer class alone, but it probably would have set him back afterward. Oxx indicated that the Eclipse would be the next logical alternative and when the track came up firm, Sea the Stars showed up to face older horses for the first time. Even with Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) winner Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani) in the race, Sea the Stars went off as the odds-on favorite. Settling behind the early pacesetters, Kinane kept him covered up on the rail and bided his time in the 10-furlong event. With about a quarter mile to go, Kinane produced him on the outside of the fading speed and was the first to strike. Jimmy Fortune had to briefly wait off his heels and swing outside as Rip Van Winkle (Galileo [Ire]) took up the chase. On the far outside, Ryan Moore had Conduit in a fierce drive, and it looked like Sea the Stars was in deep water. Amazingly, when the other two came to his neck, Sea the Stars put his head down and pulled away. Conduit was the first to pack it in and Rip Van Winkle valiantly chased him home before falling a length short. The time of the race for the 10 furlongs and seven yards was an excellent 2:03.40. The fact that Oxx scratched him out of the Irish Derby and shortened him in trip to the Eclipse indicates to me that they think that he can get 12 furlongs, but only on good to firm ground. Thus, it's unlikely that he’ll run in the Arc since Paris in October is rarely sunny and dry. And with the success last year in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) of the winning Raven's Pass and runner-up Henrythenavigator, who came from middle-distance turf races in Europe, I would expect Oxx to send Sea the Stars to Santa Anita. With the race run on Pro-Ride and contested at 10 furlongs, it's the perfect spot for him to end his season and take course condition and weather out of the equation. Throw in his natural speed and I make him the one to beat in this year's Classic.
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