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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 27, 2008 by Steve Zacks Week Eight in Review Whatever happened at Gulfstream on Sunday in the Fountain of Youth (G2), happened! It is not uncommon for a bird or an outrider to trip the starting mechanism at a racetrack thus influencing the accuracy of the recorded times. Sometimes these things are caught and sometimes they are not. Sometimes adjustments are made and sometimes they are not. If memory serves, Secretariat's time in the Preakness (G1) is still disputed by some. What it deserves is an asterisk in your mind when you are using it as a source of handicapping information. You can take whatever rating they give you and either add or deduct five points and use a range around the number rather than the actual number. When watching the race live, I heard that the pace was remarkably slow. From the looks of the running and the pace of the horses up close, it did seem to be somewhat slower than expected -- but that does happen on occasion. Maybe hand-timing from replays works well, or maybe the original clockings of the Racing Form or Equibase clockers are the truth. In this opinion, it was not a strong field and many of the prospects were early in their three-year-old form cycles, doing most of their running from behind and gaining experience at the longer distance. That it was a slow or fast pace and race will matter only if you make it a key when making decisions when these horses run back. At least in this situation everybody is aware of the facts and we all start on an equal basis. Depending on your approach to the handicapping process, the single race is either a big deal or just a part of the total picture. Those who work with the former approach will always have some nagging doubts. Those who use cycles and multiple races will likely be more easily able to adapt. If you also remember that most winners will run faster today than they did in their latest race, you will likely be okay. Some Interesting Stats for Week Eight Winners These numbers are taken from my personal database. Leading Trainers: Nick Zito -- 17; Todd Pletcher -- 16; Peter Walder -- 15; Bill Mott -- 15; Wayne Catalano -- 13; Kenny McPeek -- 12. Leading Jockeys: Eibar Coa -- 53; John Velazquez -- 40; Kent Desormeaux -- 34; Jose Lezcano -- 34; Elvis Trujillo -- 30; Edgar Prado –29. One thing that has been very noticeable at this meeting is the very short cycles for various riders and trainers. If one is using hot cycles as part of the handicapping mix, one has to be very quick to jump on and off the bandwagon or one will literally get buried. It has not been at all unusual for trainers and riders to be red hot one week and ice cold the next; whether or not that is purely a function of the condition book is unclear. As examples, Terry Pompey and Wayne Lukas had a couple of early wins and have been silent since -- not that either has run a lot of horses. Mott won a bunch a few weeks ago and has been very quiet in the last couple. Jorge Chavez was on fire the previous week but did not find the winner's circle last week. Be agile when using this factor as a key. For the most part a recent win has been present in the profiles of most races for winners. Lightly raced maidens have an edge in most of the maiden races. By my records, 60 of the 430 winners have paid more than $20; 33 of those have been > $30; 19 > $50; 7 > $80; and 3 > $100. Have you had any? 152 have paid between $10 and $19.90; another 80 or so have paid less than 2-1. Two potent class angles: 16 winners went from maiden special to maiden claiming, and more than half of these paid more than $10. Thirty-four winners dropped from a stakes to a lower-level stakes or to an allowance or claiming race; close to half of these paid close to or more than $10. There have been 67 repeat winners at the meeting (horses that won their last race, but not necessarily at Gulfstream); while eight of these were dropping, only three were running in unprotected open claiming races. WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) was dropping from a Grade 1 to an allowance on Sunday! A winner dropping into an open claimer is usually a bad wager; however if you carefully study ownership and their habits, when it makes $$$ sense, the bet may make more sense. Some outfits like to win every race they run in; knowing which ones these are will help you make the decision; in most cases these dropping winners are bet and if you can make a good case against, opportunities may exist elsewhere! DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (2/20) Sunny, fast and firm was the order for the first day of Fountain of Youth week. With three maiden claimers, two maiden specials, two low-level claimers, an upper claimer and an allowance test, there was not a lot of meat for the serious player. Two of the four winners showed a recent win on their form. Four of the five maiden winners were running for the fifth time or fewer. WALL STREET HUMOR (Distorted Humor) was making his sixth start for trainer Barclay Tagg and dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time. A good look at the gelding's form gives good incite into Tagg's thinking process for finding out what he has and developing this (and many of his other) runner(s). Prior to his first start in July, the then colt had breezed at least five times, including a :48.1 that indicated he had some ability. He finished second in a short sprint. A month later he tried going farther and was third at seven furlongs. Almost a month later, Wall Street Humor was given a turf route test in which he ran midpack with a wide trip. This is something Tagg does with some regularity. And then a couple of weeks later he ran with blinkers added in a dirt mile. He was still a colt. He finished a distant third. Off from September 30 to January 21, he reappeared as a gelding at Gulfstream in a maiden special weight with two New York works prior to eight at Palm Meadows, his Florida home. He finished a non-menacing sixth in a 10-horse field. After five starts, Wall Street Humor was winless and had been at 6-1 or lower in all of his starts, with two run as part of an entry; he had never been favored. The time had rightfully come to drop him into a maiden claimer-- he had been given time, distance changes, surface changes, equipment changes (of the ultimate kind) as well as time to freshen up. Today, he was dropped into a middling maiden claimer for the first time. He had earned the drop! But Tagg had explored every alternative in his short career before making the decision to drop the horse, and hopefully no doubt, find him a new home (which he did, when someone dropped a claim slip for him). While he may not have been worth his 1-5 price, he was probably a logical play on the drop considering he was the fastest horse in the race and had run those races against the best company. When you see a horse properly handled and given every opportunity to prove his case, he should be dropped into a legitimate spot where he properly belongs. While I do not bet short prices, I could also not find anyone in the race to beat him. This horse was finally in the proper spot. The drop was a positive move, not a negative one. If the horse has demonstrated that he is not good enough to win in a certain classification, he has earned the drop, and subject to price, is probably a good win prospect, maybe even a good bet. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The dirt was rated as fast but did not seem to be overly quick; however there were few races of quality upon which to base that assessment. Winners seemed to be off the rail and were mostly in touch with the early pace. I do not think that the track is being treated like it was in the old days when the inside would become a paved highway in the days leading up to the premier racing days. I will be on the look for that. The turf was firm with the rails at 72 feet, a placement which is often kind to speed because of the configuration of the turns and the length of the stretch. Today however, all winners did their running from the turn or entering the stretch to the wire. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Two of the top five riders, Coa and Lezcano each scored twice. The former, the meet's leading rider, even paid 9-1 on a first-time starter in the day's finale. DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (2/21) Pre-race rains came and turned the track sloppy and necessitated taking the races off the turf. Six horses broke their maidens over the wet track; in this opinion none were of noteworthy style. Most winners had shown a little bit in their preceding races; most were adjusting distances in one way or another. Three of four off-the-turf races were won by horses that last raced on turf. The day was somewhat formful, with one 10-1 and a 7-1 winner. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf It looked as if the right horse with the right ride could win from anywhere; six of the nine winners were up-close (within two lengths) at the first two calls, with the majority near the inside at some point of their races. Saving ground on the turn, as usual, is the shortest way and more often than not the best way to the winner's circle. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Velazquez awoke from his recent nap -- don't blame the rider if he is not on live horses -- winning a trio on the day, and Lezcano won a couple. It may be worth pointing out that both of these riders do seem to find the wood whenever they can and do not ask much of their horses until reaching the stretch. As I have written before, few horses can sustain a bid if it is launched too early and a lot is asked for around the turn. Zito was the only trainer with two wins on the day; I would imagine he is hoping this is the beginning of a big week and weekend for his barn. Alan Jerkens and Stan Hough, two New York-based trainers, won the day's two allowance races! Horses or Races of Interest As has been stated earlier, I tend to shy away from wet-track winners and races. Too often a hard effort over a wet surface is more taxing than it appears and often has negative implications for next time. Then too, some horses are simply wet-track freaks, and too many races are compromised by scratches and horses that do not perform at their best levels. The forecast for the weekend was more promising; hopefully we will all get to see some good races and racing! DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (2/22) It was a nice weather day but with only two entry-level allowances and a maiden special on the lawn, there was not a lot of meat to the race card. All four winners of races for winners had recent victories on form. Four of the five maiden winners were making one of their first five career starts. Both of these, while not formal handicapping tools, are useful factors to take into account when evaluating a horse. Interestingly, seven of the nine winners had been absent the races for 31 or more days -- the layoff number that the ancients use. The one $84 bomb on the card was a recently-claimed fifth-time starter that was repeating, while stepping up into allowance company. His new connections were able to harness his speed as he stretched out, and he was able to run down the contested pace of the front runners to win going away. B B FRANK (Came Home) is tough to evaluate off that race, but he could be interesting and one would doubt that he will bet down too low. Depending upon where he is spotted, he could be a good bet at a fair price. If he winds up in the Florida Derby (G1), you are on your own! Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The dirt was rated as good for the 1ST race and fast thereafter. There were no particularly fast races on dirt. The races were won from inside and out in terms of selected paths and from up front or the back. In this opinion, several races were won or lost by selected jockey tactics; as I have been saying for some time now, going into a drive on the turn nets you very little three-eighths of a mile later when you go under the wire...especially if wide. Javier Castellano, while he has won some with sweeping moves on the best horse, seems not to grasp this concept! He just may have lost a couple of races he might have won with more judicious use of energy. You can float when wide, but not be in a drive. The turf was rated "good" with the rail placement at 72 feet. Two of the three races were won from off the pace; the finale was won on the lead -- just barely. One winner paid 8-1, the $25k claimer, while the other two were won by logical horses with different tactics. My read is that the turf was fair. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Apprentice Pascacio Lopez scored a natural hat trick early in the card. He was the only multiple winner in the jockey/trainer categories. Mott won one and narrowly missed with another, when Kiaran McLaughlin nosed him in the last. Horses or Races of Interest See the Daily Review DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (2/23) The Gulfstream Park H. (G1) was the feature of the day and EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and Helen Pitts deserve full credit for the victory. The six-year-old horse had a new rider in Lezcano (due to the uncertainty about his running Prado accepted a call in a Tampa stakes which he won) who took him back off the pace to save ground early and moved when he sensed he needed too heading into the far turn. He needed to hold off the on-coming Dancing Forever (Rahy), who was moving up in company and given little regard by the public but still finished a good second. Shamdinan (Fr) (Dr Fong) raced in contention until backing up to finish a well-beaten ninth. Second in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) over the soft going at Monmouth, Shamdinan either did not like the firmer surface, was in need of a race, or is not quite the horse that race suggested he might be, but he still has plenty of time to show his true ability. The slight betting favorite, Stream of Gold (Ire) (Rainbow Quest), was a non-threatening third. The day started off three successive long shots; the daily double paid $736 and the opening Pick 3 a neat $13,800+ for a buck! In that mix were two going first-time for new trainers, two maiden claimers making second and fifth career starts and two coming back from long layoffs. The thing about trainer switches and lightly raced runners is that their past is not necessarily indicative of what they will show today. Folks make their living focusing on these types. One of the switches was rising multiple class levels and adding Lasix after a troubled debut. He had a top rider up too! There are ways to beat this game without focusing on pace match-ups and speed figures! Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was firm and the rail was at 72 feet for all of the races other than the stakes. The races on the lawn did not appear to be too fast and while the closers were doing well, they were not turning in huge efforts from what I observed. The dirt was rated fast and again heady rides while not losing too much ground and not doing too much on the turn was the order of the day. Not all the long shots were as improbable as the public thought, depending upon one's approach to the game, and there was not much to be gained from that angle. There were a couple of fine rides on the day. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Lezcano and Desormeaux each won a couple. I found Pitts choice of riders most interesting -- I have been saying throughout the meeting how intelligently Lezcano had been riding -- and he turned in a fine performance to win the stakes, perhaps with the best horse on the day! Desormeaux' (yes folks, in proper English there is not an apostrophe following a sibilant) ride on HONEST TO BETSY (Yonaguska) was absolutely what great race riding is all about. Of course he was on a live horse that was capable of doing it, but this is why he is one of the best. Desormeaux delivered a textbook turf ride even though the race was a dirt sprint. He waited inside and when he was trapped found a seam and moved quickly to the outside to give her free rein. That she responded made them both look pretty in the picture. Of course you have to have the horse to win and respond when asked, but if you practice proper riding tactics all the time, doing the right things at the right time becomes second nature and there is no hesitation when the small opening appears or in looking for wood early in the race even from an outside post. I had commented on what I thought was Castellano's over aggressiveness on the turn; he was on the best prepared horse in today's 6TH and was a little more patient on the turn when three-wide. Horses or Races of Interest While it is hard to make a big thing out of a big win in a maiden race when the pace and the race are not particularly fast, but one had to be somewhat impressed with ZAFTIG's (Gone West) tour de force in the day's finale when she was in hand on the turn and then blew by her opposition opening up to win by about nine lengths. The switch to Velazquez was a signal of positive intent, with Coa opting for another. However the key factor in her second career start may have been the trainer stat: Jimmy Jerkens is only about 10 percent with first-time starters, but better than one-in-three (33 percent) with his second-timers. The fact that she had been bet in her debut suggested that she had some talent. The fact that she was fractious at the gate and then ran greenly were positives when viewed in the perspective of a layoff, taking her to Florida, giving her time and steady preps. DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY 2/24 Other than one event, the day was rather formful. WAR PASS had no more than a workout in his easy win. To the extent that Zito has formulated the right plan to get his champion to the Kentucky Derby (G1), then step one proceeded as designed. I have to guess that money does not matter to his connections. Considering the way the Fountain of Youth was run (of course depending upon the reliability of the actual or posted time), as well as some of the other sophomore stakes, War Pass might be able to run the half in :49 against all of his opponents; even with his suspect 10-furlong pedigree, even he should be able to motor the last six furlongs off that kind of easy pace. With the times in question, it is difficult to evaluate the Fountain of Youth, except from a running style and competitiveness perspective. And do not forget that some clever conditioners use races to build for the future teaching their horses certain aspects of the game, such as waiting, running behind and inside horses, switching leads with the extra turn and so on. Several were closing ground and depending upon the actual pace of the race, those moves may look better or worse later on. The bigger goals are a long way in the future and making too much of any of these races now, may be pure folly. I think the only thing we all learned was that Adriano (A.P. Indy) should go back to the turf! Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was firm and the rails were at 72 feet. For the most part, winners on the turf were reserved toward the inside and did their serious running in the stretch. EMIRATES TO DUBAI (Storm Cat) seemed lost in the group to the rear entering the stretch in the 7TH race, but somehow Garrett Gomez managed to extricate him and find room in the stretch. When GoGo did, Emirates to Dubai exploded to win going away. PARADING (Pulpit), unfortunately for yours truly, managed to find a clear trip in close attendance to the pace in today's 11TH and narrowly edged the front-running Pickapocket (Mecke) (at 6-1) in the late running. Parading was a tight second choice, and each of the top pair did run strongly late following what appeared to be a slowish pace. The dirt did not seem to be overly fast and waiting tactics seemed to play out well. Inside and outside moves were both successful and speed could be dangerous if left alone. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Zito and Shug McGaughey won a couple each; the former is now tied atop the trainer standings. Prado and Velazquez each won a couple. Gomez managed a victory...though not in the race he hoped. DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (2/25) The races on the day were quite formful, with the highest payoff at $10 and change. All the winners of the races for winners had a win within their last five starts; there was a first- and fourth-time starter in the three maiden races. With seven of the nine races owning claiming prices, it was an unexciting day. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The two turf races were sprints and were run over firm ground with the rails at 72 feet. Each was won by a late runner that saved ground early. The dirt was fast and winners were coming from both the inside and outside paths. Being up close was probably beneficial, though if there had been a live deep closer the race track would not have stopped him. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Zito completed a successful week with another win and is alone atop the trainer standings. Coa added to his lead with a couple of wins; Lezcano won two as well and Manny Cruz also won two on the day.
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